Clayton Kershaw

Position: SP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 3/19/1988 (33)

Traditional Stats: 22 GS, 10-8, 3.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 121.2 IP
Advanced Stats: 3.00 FIP, 115 ERA+, 2.4 WAR, 4.3 BB%, 44.0 Whiff%

Rundown

Clayton Kershaw was drafted with the seventh overall pick of the 2006 MLB Draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Highland Park High School in University Park Texas. He quickly worked his way through the system and made the big leagues by 2008 at just 20-years old.

Kershaw spent all 14-years of his big league career with Los Angeles. He pitched well his first three years in the show, recording a combined 3.17 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, and 497 strikeouts over 83 starts.

It was in 2011 that Kershaw established himself on the big stage. Kershaw was named to his first career All-Star game and took home the NL Cy Young award after leading the league with 21 wins, a 2.28 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and 248 strikeouts.

He followed that up by finishing second in Cy Young voting the following year, only behind Mets knuckleballer RA Dickey. Kershaw made a league-leading 33 starts and again posted a league-low 2.53 ERA.

The crafty lefty took home his second and third Cy Young’s the next two years and also added an NL MVP award to his collection. His sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP were both league lows and he recorded a combined 471 strikeouts over 60 starts.

Kershaw went the distance in six of his 27 starts during his MVP season, and two of them were shutouts. He also won a league-leading 21 games for the second time in his career and recorded just three losses.

Kershaw would finish in the top-5 in Cy Young voting in each of the next three seasons. He recorded his first 300+ strikeout season and pitched a league-leading 232.2 innings during his 2015 campaign.

He returned to the top-10 in Cy Young voting during both the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Kershaw made a total of 38 starts, winning 22 of them, and posting a 2.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.72 FIP, and 251 strikeouts.

Kershaw dealt with some injury troubles this past season but still made 22 starts. The lefty missed two months during the season due to a forearm injury. He returned to pitch in September but was shut down after just four starts.

In total, he pitched to a 3.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, and had 144 strikeouts on the season. Kershaw saw his velocity dip a bit below normal, but his wicked curveball still generated a 32.7% whiff percentage.

Kershaw received a plasma injection in October for his flexor issue. He won’t need to undergo Tommy John surgery, but elbow injuries are always a bit worrisome, especially at this stage in his career.

Contract

Heading into his age 34-season, Kershaw is officially reaching free agency for the first time in his big league career. While there are some injury and potential decline concerns, the southpaw should have plenty of suitors in free agency.

Either as a courtesy to the veteran or due to his injury, the Dodgers decided not to extend Kershaw the qualifying offer following the end of this season. Therefore, he does not have draft pick compensation tied to him. 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Kershaw will receive a one-year deal worth around $20 million. Fangraphs crowdsourced projections, on the other hand, have him taking home a roughly two-year deal worth around $60 million.

Due to his age and recent injury troubles, Kershaw is more likely to receive a one-year deal rather than a multi-year. As I mentioned above, there should be plenty of teams willing to take a flier.

Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management their other clients include Zack Greinke, Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker, and former Mets Jed Lowrie and Jerry Blevins amongst others.

Two of the most likely destinations are Kershaw returning to the Dodgers or heading back home to Texas to finish his career with the Rangers. The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Angels are a few other teams who could make sense for the veteran southpaw.

Recommendation

For starters, the Mets certainly are not done adding to their starting rotation. They were reportedly looking to add both Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman to the mix, prior to the later signing with the Blue Jays.

Once the lockout is finally lifted they will definitely be in the market for pitching. I’ll even say that I’d be shocked if they didn’t add at least one or two more arms to the mix prior to the beginning of the season.

So, should Clayton Kershaw be on that list?

I absolutely think the Mets should be willing to take a flier on the future Hall of Famer. Just think about a potential trio of Jacob deGrom, Scherzer, and Kershaw leading the Mets rotation this (and potentially next) season.

That group is as good as it gets right there. While Kershaw isn’t quite what he used to be, the Mets don’t need him to come in and be that ace. Kershaw would be a more than qualified third option with plenty of upside.

Of course, there are two things to take into account here though. The injury Kershaw suffered from last season could be a cause for concern amongst ball clubs. He’s also only topped 170 innings pitched twice in the past six seasons. 

The other thing is if he’d be willing to sign somewhere else besides the Dodgers or Rangers.

The idea of pitching in that all-time great trio has to be awfully enticing. Also factor in the possibility of potentially bringing a championship to New York, and of course the biggest of them all, Steve Cohen’s wallet.

Kershaw is still a more than effective big-league arm. If they are able to pry him away from LA, like Scherzer, Billy Eppler and company should absolutely take a flier on the future Hall of Famer.