When the deal was made, New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen — as did many other fans — championed the move, touting Robinson Cano‘s well-documented track record of consistency (despite a 2018 suspension for performance-enhancing drug use) and the sky’s-the-limit ceiling of young right-handed closer, Edwin Diaz.
Sending off Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak‘s inflated contracts off-set Cano’s bloated salary to an extent, but the price of Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn — as well as right-hander, Gerson Bautista — to acquire Diaz, 25 and the American League’s save leader in 2018, was almost immediately seen as too costly.
Anyone with a rooting interest in the Mets minor-league system knew Kelenic was something special, and he’s proven as much thus far. Through 64 games between Single-A West Virginia and Advanced-A Modesto, the 19-year-old centerfielder is slashing .296/.375/.558 with 13 homers, 16 doubles, and 37 RBIs. Clearly, the Wisconsin native is well on his way to a bright future in this game. Baseball America recently ranked him as the No. 25 prospect in baseball.
Dunn, 23, has pitched well with Double-A Arkansas this season. Over 13 starts (65 innings), the right-handed Freeport, LI native owns a 3.46 ERA with 1.26 WHIP, 81 strikeouts, and 20 walks. His fastball still sits in the mid-to-high 90s, and his offspeed stuff all rates well. He’s another potential difference maker in the works.
As for Bruce, now with the Phillies and healthy, his power prowess is at the highest it’s been since before he re-signed with the Mets ahead of the 2018 season (three years, $36 million).
Over 256 plate appearances between Seattle and Philadelphia, the 32-year-old has 21 homers, 48 RBIs, 15 doubles, but sports a paltry .236/.293/.571 slash line.
In any case, his value is apparent. His 1.1 wins above replacement (FanGraphs) is good for 37th among qualified MLB outfielders. If that’s what a line like that can produce, one could argue that the juice is worth the squeeze.
Swarzak, 33, is having himself a resurgent season with Atlanta. Since being traded from Seattle to the Braves on May 20, the veteran left-hander has a 0.54 ERA over 16 relief appearances (16.2 innings) with 20 strikeouts and six walks. Looks like someone found their stuff, huh?
So, as we watch Seattle’s (and now Philly’s and Atlanta’s) return prosper, making Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto look like a darn genius for starting negotiations asking for Jeff McNeil and “settling” for Kelenic and Dunn, we in Flushing have the distinctly sour privilege of watching things unfold from another perspective.
Cano’s first season in Queens has been marred by injury and underperformance. Despite a brief hot stretch early on (.400/.449/.600 over 49 plate appearances from April 12 to April 26), the 36-year-old came into Thursday’s series finale versus the Phils with an anemic .223/.271/.360 slash line and just four home runs.
For someone who’s set to make somewhere in the ballpark of $100 million over the next five seasons, this dropoff is incredibly alarming.
What’s happening with the true centerpiece of Van Wagenen’s initial move at the helm of the Mets, Edwin Diaz, is, in this writer’s opinion, simply a speed bump in the road for an incredibly talented young hurler.
The 25-year-old righty entered May with a 1.54 ERA over his first 13 appearances (11.2 innings), looking every bit the player he was advertised as. But once the calendar turned, so did Diaz’ fortunes.
Since May 1, Diaz has pitched to a 4.74 ERA with a .303/.357/.487 slash line against, 29 strikeouts, and six walks over 19 innings of work (19 games). That’s not including his blown save/implosion on Thursday afternoon, capping off a nightmarish four-game sweep at the hands of the Phils.
Things are bad at the moment, make no mistake about it. But there’s still time for Diaz to become the player this organization thought they were acquiring. In all honesty, I’m fully confident he’ll get back there in short order.
As for Cano, he’s going to need some sort of second half to win back some of his staunch critics here in Flushing. For what it’s worth, he looks just as disappointed in himself as we are in what we’ve seen thus far. Onward and upward.
Van Wagenen’s splash, while gutting the Mets’ farm system of two of its top talents, could have theoretically worked out for all parties involved. Though no one anticipated Cano’s productivity to drop so sharply or Diaz to struggle so mightily after an elite start to his Mets tenure.
Hopefully, there’s still time to tip the scales back in the Mets’ favor.
