Series Preview: Mets Face Tough Test vs. First-Place Braves

The New York Mets (30-38) have their work cut out for them. It’s simple as that. Four of their next five series come against teams above .500. The Mets faced some favorable opposition in recent weeks, but failed to take advantage of that opportunity. They enter the weekend with the third-worst record in the National League. If they want to play meaningful baseball this summer, the turnaround needs to begin now.

They will try to start that against the Atlanta Braves (45-23), who have the best record in baseball. Not ideal. The Braves’ lineup is one of the best in baseball, scoring 5.15 runs per game. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups this weekend.

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98 ERA): Strider began the year on the injured list with a left oblique strain, delaying his season debut until the first week of May. His numbers have been OK since returning. Strider has allowed three earned runs or less in all of his seven outings. But, he only has two quality starts over that stretch. His fastball velocity has remained in line with what he has produced in recent years. In 2022, his four-seamer averaged 98.2 MPH. This season, it’s at 95.3 MPH. McLean had a two-start stretch in which he gave up 13 earned runs over nine innings a few weeks ago. Since then, he is 1-0 with 1.64 ERA. One concern within that is the eight walks he has given up over his last two starts. McLean threw seven innings and earned the win in his only start against the Braves last season.
• Saturday: Martín Pérez (4-3, 3.02 ERA) vs. TBD: Pérez has boucned around quite a bit since making the All-Star team with the Texas Rangers in 2022. He has pitched for four teams in the last three years, working in a multitude of roles. That has certainly remained the same with the Braves. Four of his nine appearances have come as a reliever, but recently, he has been a part of the rotation. Pérez is 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA over his last 20 2/3 innings. His only quality start this season came on April 17 against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets have yet to announce a starter for Saturday’s game, which likely means they will use an opener. Huascar Brazobán is their best option for that, as he has yet to give up a run in the first inning this season. The bulk guy is expected to be Sean Manaea, who has pitched must better of late. He owns a 3.20 ERA over his last five relief appearances, throwing at least three innings in each outing. Manaea has yet to make a traditional start this season.
• Sunday: Bryce Elder (5-3, 2.66 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (4-5, 4.04 ERA): Elder is one of many Braves that has had a bounce-back season. His start to the year was fantastic. At the end of April, Elder was 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA across seven starts. But his numbers have taken a slight dip since, pitching to a 3.46 ERA since the start of May. The long ball has hurt him during that stretch, allowing one in five of his last seven starts. Peralta is coming off his worst start as a Met; six runs allowed on six hits in six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday. He has given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. Not what you want to see from an experienced ace of Peralta’s caliber. He is 5-2 with 4.26 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Braves.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The Mets have not won the season series against the Braves since 2017. Yes, that is not a typo. If that doesn’t showcase domination, I don’t know what will. The Mets are eight games under .500 and have yet to face Atlanta. Winning the season series over the Braves would go a long way towards helping them climb up the standings. At this point, that may be required if they are to get back into the playoff race. It’s a critical weekend for the Mets.

PREDICTION