Mets Must Remain Wary of Using Jeurys Familia in Big Spots

As with any prolonged hot streak, a lot of things have gone right for the New York Mets in the second half, which has forced themselves back into playoff contention. One of the handful of turnarounds manager Mickey Callaway has watched is a complete 180 with regard to the performance of his bullpen.

With Edwin Diaz leading the way, projection systems were anticipating the Mets on having one of the best relief corps in baseball. That was the furthest thing from the truth heading into the All-Star break. While Callaway had only called on his bullpen to toss 294 innings (fourth-fewest in the league), they posted a 5.63 ERA (third-worst in baseball) and a -0.3 fWAR (tied for last).

But since returning from the midsummer classic, it’s been a completely different story. Although their 122.2 cumulative innings pitched is still among the fewest in baseball, it’s been paired with a 3.67 ERA and 0.8 fWAR, all of which are obvious improvements.

Andy Martino of SNY touched upon how this change in overall performance from the bullpen has been important and is coming at a vital time of year due to the playoff races. One of the things Martino mentioned for this turnaround was a stabilization of Jeurys Familia‘s performance. You know, the guy that was once on track for a historically bad season by a Mets reliever. He’s now only on track to have a more normal terrible year for a reliever.

Martino discussed how a change in mechanics has brought about a positive change in Familia’s overall statistics, and to a point, that’s certainly true. His 3.00 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate since the All-Star break is just a little different from the 7.50 ERA and 22.7% strikeout rate he produced in the first half.

Despite those visible improvements, there are still some concerning things to keep an eye on with the right-hander. His WHIP hasn’t changed much from the first half (1.83) to the second half (1.67) because his walk rate has actually gotten worse, if that’s even possible (15.6% to 20.9%). And sure, it’s been better so far this month, but it’s not like a 17.7% walk rate is something worth bragging about.

Any changes Familia did make has stabilized his BABIP allowed, bringing it back down to a number we’re used to seeing from him on a yearly basis. But if he’s still allowing so many base runners, how is his ERA so low? He can thank his sudden ability to strand runners for that. Here’s a peek at his monthly inning totals and how his strand rate has varied throughout 2019:

Was June an abnormal month from the perspective of stranding men on base? Well, sure, but it’s not as if the 88.2% rate at which he’s having success this month is the norm. Upon becoming a full-time reliever in 2014, Familia has produced a season-long strand rate higher than 75.5% just once, and that was 89.4% in 2015. Since then, his season-long rate hasn’t surpassed 75.0%.

Could this be something he could maintain over the short-term, like through the end of this season? That’s possible, but it’d be tough to expect when he hasn’t consistently come close to that number during some of his productive campaigns in recent years.

Improved mechanics and better results will surely raise the confidence level of most ballplayers, but it hasn’t seemed to have raised Callaway’s enough. With all of Diaz’s struggles lately, one would imagine this is the prime opportunity for Familia to at least temporarily settle into the ninth inning again. Even with what he’s accomplished thus far in the second half, all the reliever has done is compile three holds without getting any save opportunities.

Has Familia been more of an asset than a hindrance since the All-Star break? Absolutely. Has he been part of a unit-wide improvement in the Mets’ bullpen? You bet. But even though he’s getting more swings and misses again, there are still some concerning trends in his peripherals that has led Callaway to not call on him consistently in high-leverage situations.