Michael King, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 27 (5/25/1995)

2026 Traditional Stats: 12-10, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 IP, 159 SO, 70 BB
2026 Advanced Stats: 127 ERA+, 21.0% K%, 9.2% BB%, 2.17 xERA, 2.24 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 4.3 bWAR

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Breakdown

Michael King has once again positioned himself for a significant payday by opting out of the remaining two years of his contract with the San Diego Padres, making him a free agent for the second consecutive offseason. After another productive campaign, the right-handed pitcher is expected to attract considerable interest on the open market.

King originally entered free agency following the 2025 season amid concerns about his durability, as shoulder and knee injuries limited his availability down the stretch. Despite posting impressive numbers from 2023 through 2025, those health concerns ultimately led him to return to San Diego on a three-year, $75 million contract that provided financial security while allowing him to test free agency again.

Fortunately for King, his health was much less of a concern in 2026. He enjoyed a productive season, making 32 starts and logging 185 innings with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Both marks represented improvements over his 2025 campaign, when he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP across just 15 starts. His 2026 workload also marked only the second time in his career that he reached the 30-start milestone, an encouraging development for a pitcher whose durability had previously raised questions.

King carried that success into October, allowing just one earned run across 14 postseason innings for an incredible 0.64 ERA over three appearances. His postseason contributions included a six-out save in Game 3 of the NLDS. Over his three seasons with San Diego from 2024 through 2026, King compiled a 3.15 ERA with 436 strikeouts across 432 innings, establishing himself as one of the more dependable arms in the Padres’ rotation when healthy.

However, a closer look at King’s underlying numbers provides a more detailed picture of the type of pitcher he has become. According to Baseball Savant, his 2026 performance was largely driven by his ability to limit hard contact and generate favorable results with his secondary offerings.

King ranked in the 93rd percentile in overall Pitching Run Value, placing him among the most effective pitchers in baseball by that measure. His Offspeed Run Value was particularly impressive, ranking in the 97th percentile, while his Breaking Run Value landed in the 86th percentile. His Fastball Run Value ranked in just the 48th percentile, suggesting that much of his success came from his ability to complement his primary fastball with an effective collection of secondary pitches. He was also able to keep hitters from consistently squaring up the ball and producing damaging contact despite lower velocity and middle-of-the-road chase and whiff rates.

Contract

Despite having impressive seasons from 2023 to 2025, concerns about his health ultimately influenced King’s decision to return to San Diego on a three-year, $75 million contract. It included a $12 million signing bonus, a $5 million salary for 2026, and player options worth $28 million for 2027 and $30 million for 2028, along with a $5 million buyout associated with the first option.

King’s next contract could be substantially more lucrative. Most projections suggest he will secure a four-to-five-year deal with an average annual value of around $30 million, potentially pushing his total guaranteed money beyond $100 million.

According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, King is likely to enter a market similar to that of pitchers like Tyler Glasnow (five years, $136.6 million), Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million), and Sonny Gray (three years, $75 million). Bowden estimates that King could land a four-year contract worth $118 million, which would equate to an average annual value of $29.5 million. This price point is well within Steve Cohen’s ever-opening wallet and could make King a realistic target for the Mets as they aim to enhance their starting rotation for 2027.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

For the Mets, King would represent an opportunity to add an established starting pitcher with postseason experience and a demonstrated ability to handle a significant workload. His recent injury history and some of the underlying metrics may warrant caution when evaluating the length and value of a potential contract, but his 2026 durability and overall production have certainly strengthened his position heading into free agency. King is a name worth keeping an eye on, especially if the Mets lose the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes.