Brandon Woodruff

Position: SP Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 30 (2/10/93)

2023 Traditional Stats: 11 G, 5-1, 2.28 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, 67 IP, 74 K
2023 Advanced Stats: 2.4 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR, 3.60 FIP, 2.86 xERA, 29.2 K%, 5.9 BB%

Rundown

Brandon Woodruff was originally drafted out of high school by the Texas Rangers in 2011, but elected to attend Mississippi State University to further his baseball career. The Brewers decided to select Woodruff several years later in the 11th round of the 2014 MLB Draft.

As a college-level pitcher, Woodruff did not take long to reach the major league level, making his debut during the 2017 season. In his rookie campaign, he only started eight games, allowing 23 earned runs in 43 innings.

This unimpressive rookie season was followed by a 2018 season that saw Woodruff coming out of the bullpen at times. He pitched in 19 total games and started only four of them. However, his overall numbers improved from his previous season, as he struck out 47 batters in 42 1/3 innings while pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.30 FIP.

Woodruff built upon this promising campaign with his first All-Star selection in 2019. He started 22 games that year and struck out 143 batters in 121 2/3 innings. Also, he had a 3.62 ERA with a 3.01 FIP and 3.3 fWAR, which shows that his numbers were impactful towards a winning product.

Unlike many of his other starting pitcher counterparts, Woodruff took advantage of the shortened 2020 season, starting 13 games and pitching to a 3.05 ERA. More notably, he struck out 91 batters in 73 2/3 innings, continuing a trend where his strikeout rate would increase each year.

He took the improvements from the last two seasons and poured them into an excellent 2021 campaign, where he would nab his second All-Star selection. He also reached 30 games started for the first time in his career. This uptick in volume did not result in less production; rather, he benefitted from the consistent availability. In 179 1/3 innings, he struck out 211 batters while pitching to a 2.56 ERA and 2.96 FIP. He also had a career-best 4.7 fWAR.

In 2022, Woodruff put up a similarly stellar season, starting 27 games and striking out 190 batters in 153 1/3 innings. In addition, he had a 3.05 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 3.6 fWAR, all pointing to continued excellence.

Consequently, Woodruff’s momentum would be halted by an injury-riddled 2023 campaign. Despite pitching well, he only started 11 games, which is not ideal in a contract year.

Further, he suffered an injury that required an operation on his shoulder, which he received this past October. As a result, he will likely be sidelined for the entire 2024 season and was non-tendered by the Brewers after spending nearly 10 years with the organization.

At age 30, Woodruff entered the free agent market at a time that should have been the prime of his career. However, his shoulder injury has rendered him a reclamation project despite his track record of success throughout recent years.

Contract

In an article by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, he projects that Woodruff will likely receive a deal similar to Tyler Glasnow‘s two-year, $30.35 million hybrid deal that would allow him to rehabilitate his injury in the first year and then pitch in the following season. He also believes that a high-revenue team will likely sign Woodruff, as teams with a lesser cash flow may not want to take the risk on the injured starting pitcher.

That being said, it is almost certain that Woodruff will receive a multi-year deal if he decides to sign with a team this offseason. It is also possible that Woodruff refrains from signing with a team this offseason and waits until his condition has improved to weigh his options.

Recommendation

Based on the nature of Woodruff’s condition, the Mets have an advantage over other teams, as their spending ability will allow them to be players for Woodruff. Also, it is highly plausible that Woodruff is on David Stearns’s radar, as he has already brought in a number of former Brewers, such as Tyrone Taylor, Adrian Houser, Cam Robinson, and others.

It is also beneficial for the Mets to plan ahead, and they have already stated their high aspirations for 2025. That said, they should absolutely take a flyer on Woodruff. Perhaps they can sign him to a two-year deal worth $28 million with a vesting option for the 2026 season based on incentives.