Even though Jarred Kelenic, the key piece of the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade, is off to a torrid start for the Mariners’ Single-A affiliate with a .337/.434/.615 triple slash line in 27 games, and the Mets are slumping with a 16-18 record, the blockbuster deal between New York and Seattle shouldn’t be seen as a major blunder by General Manager Brodie Van Wagenen, at least not yet.
It’s still way too early to tell if Kelenic will live up to his ever-increasing hype. The Mets’ 2018 first round pick faces a long road ahead of him before he makes it onto the major league field, given that he is 19-years-old and playing in the low levels of the minors.
As Mets’ fans have witnessed many times before, excellent Single-A numbers don’t guarantee major league success. While Kelenic may become a superstar, it’s also possible that he ends up being a bust like former top-rated prospects Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge.
This scenario may seem unlikely given how well Kelenic is hitting, but it’s not far-fetched when you consider that Milledge was also a first-round pick who batted .340 at the age of 19 in Single-A – Just like Kelenic.
A study conducted by Sabr.org finds that only 14.1 percent of high school position players taken in the first round make it to the majors. And only 10.5 percent of them played more than three years in the majors, so busts like Milledge aren’t the exception. They are the norm.
Critics will argue that it isn’t just Kelenic who is performing well. Justin Dunn, MLB.com’s 91st ranked prospect, owns a solid 3.20 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 25.1 innings in Double-A, but it’s important to exercise patience with him too. Let’s see him succeed in the majors before we lament his loss.
Jay Bruce, who the Mets included in the deal as a salary dump, also grabbed headlines with his red-hot start for the Mariners, but he’s since come crashing back to earth with a .182/.261/.525 triple slash line. Given that the Mets already have Pete Alonso occupying 1B, and Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil all capable of playing the corner outfield, it’s hard to see where the 32-year-old veteran would fit in even if he wasn’t traded.
And while Anthony Swarzak,the trade’s other throw-in, seems like he’s having a nice year with a 3.60 ERA, the underlying numbers show that he is still the same ineffective reliever the Mets labored with last year. He owns a strikingly high 8.30 FIP and 6.3 BB/9, so the Mets didn’t lose any value there either.
Many fans are rightfully frustrated with Cano’s lackluster start, but given that it’s still early May, it would be overacting to say that the 36-year-old 2B is in decline. There’s still plenty of time for All-Star hitter to catch fire, and he showed no signs of aging with a .317/.363/.479 line a in forty games last season after he returning from suspension.
A player with such a strong track record like Cano should be given the benefit of the doubt. He’s a career .304 hitter with a .846 OPS, so he shouldn’t be written off so quickly.
On the positive side, Van Wagenen is getting exactly what he asked for with Diaz. Even after a few hiccups last week, Diaz has been dominant with a 1.98 ERA, 14.49 K/9 and eight saves overall, proving that last season’s excellence was no fluke.
There’s plenty of good arguments that can be made against the Kelenic trade– Van Wagenen took on a lot of Cano’s salary, and Kelenic and Dunn are indeed impressive prospects. But acting like the trade is already a massive catastrophe this early in Kelenic’s career is shortsighted.
Another valid criticism is that Van Wagenen did not do enough to bolster the team after making such a bold “win now” move. Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel were there for the Mets taking (and still are), but Van Wagenen did not act.
Trading Kelenic wasn’t his big mistake. His blunder was that he settled with Jason Vargas in the rotation when much better options were available. Imagine how much better this season would have started if the Mets replaced Vargas and his 5.92 ERA with Keuchel, who posted a 3.74 ERA in 204.2 innings last year? The Mets probably wouldn’t be sitting under .500 right now
I also understand that seeing Kelenic thrive in the minors is a tough pill to swallow for the prospect gurus, who fell in love with Kelenic and envisioned him as the next Mets’ star. But it needs to be remembered that even talented first round picks often fail to make it big in the majors.
If one day Kelenic comes up and starts crushing major league pitching, then his depaturte could be looked back upon with regret. But until then, the focus should just be on whether Cano and the Mets can break out of their slumps, and not Kelenic’s Single-A numbers.
