Stat Line: 5 IP, 6 R, 10 H, 5 SO, 0 BB
Jacob deGrom was ineffective again on Tuesday night against the Marlins, continuing a stretch that has seen him post a 6.41 ERA and a .327 opposing batting average over his last five starts.
“It was just a start where in the fourth and fifth inning, I couldn’t locate the ball and left it over the middle,” deGrom said. “I felt fine early in the game.”
DeGrom’s poor stat line from last night’s 9-3 loss to the Miami Marlins was a product of below average pitch command.
DeGrom exhibited sharp pitch movement, producing an 11.76% swing and miss rate, close to his miss rate season average at 14.00%. His fastball velocity was normal, sitting 94 to 96 mph and touching 97 to 98 mph. The changeup and curveball velocity were typical, sitting 10 to 14 mph slower than his fastball. He mixed his pitches well, throwing 60.00% fastballs, 12.94% changeups, 10.58% sliders and 16.47% curveballs.
At first glance, it seemed deGrom’s command was decent at a 69.41% strike rate but throwing strikes and throwing well located strikes are two different concepts.
DeGrom did an exceptional job of attacking the strike zone early in at-bats, throwing 22-of-23 first pitch strikes (95%). 15 of the 23 (65%) first pitches were fastballs. During deGrom’s successful outings this season, he has consistently thrown more of a 50%-50% first pitch split between fastballs and off-speed pitches, helping stay unpredictable to hitters also referred to as “pitching backwards”.
Although the 65% fastball to 35% off-speed first pitch split wasn’t optimal, the split didn’t result in deGrom’s hits. In fact, during the fourth inning deGrom successfully switched to first pitch curveballs after back to back RBI hits off his fastball. Aside from helping keep hitters off-balance, the first pitch curveball slows the momentum for the offensive team.
During the fifth inning, deGrom allowed Marlins pitcher Tom Koehler to hit a double on a first pitch fastball. I can’t fault deGrom for attacking Koehler with a first pitch fastball because there was no one on-base, one out and deGrom needed to force Koehler to earn his way on-base.
The issue was the location of his fastball and most of his pitches last night. Here is a rundown and scouting report of the pitches thrown on the Marlins run producing hits:
Fourth Inning
Justin Bour hits a hard ground ball down the left-field line for an RBI double – 97 MPH fastball, good location knee high on outside corner.
Marcell Ozuna hits line drive into center field for RBI single – 96 MPH fastball, poor location belt high over inner half of home plate.
J.T. Realmuto hits fly ball to right field for RBI sacrifice fly – 95 MPH fastball, below average location knee high but over the middle third of home plate.
Fifth Inning
Christian Yelich hits deep fly ball to right-center field gap for RBI double – 94 MPH fastball, poor location thigh high over the middle third of home plate.
Martin Prado hits fly ball to left field for RBI sacrifice fly – 85 MPH changeup, poor location knee high but over the middle third of home plate.
Bour his line drive to center field for RBI single – 81 MPH curveball, poor location hanging belt high over middle third of home plate. Additionally, deGrom threw a 1-0 hanging changeup belt high over the inner third of home plate earlier in the at-bat to Bour. Thankfully for deGrom, Bour swung and missed at that 1-0 pitch.
Give the Marlins credit. For a team out of playoff contention, the Marlins offense stayed aggressive and had timely hits.
Did fatigue play a role in deGrom hanging off-speed pitches? Maybe.
The Mets ace has thrown a career-high 181 innings although Terry Collins seemed to downplay whether deGrom should skip his next start.
“The one thing we cannot forget is, we are in a pennant race,” Collins said. “We are at the end of the season, we do not need to be getting rid of our best pitchers and letting them sit on the side for a while. If we decide to skip him we skip him, but we’ve got some games in between, we’ll see what goes on.”
Is there a mechanical issue? Possibly. DeGrom has such a quick delivery, it is tough seeing if he is opening up with his glove to early and rushing his motion, which is usually the source of hanging breaking balls and fastballs leaking back over home plate from the outside corner.
Whatever the reason, don’t look too much into this start. Look at deGrom’s full body of work this season and understand he will be given the proper rest going into the playoffs.
Follow Chris Zaccherio on Twitter @ziography for more Mets insight going beyond statistics.
