Crossfire: Should Mets Sign J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner?

The New York Mets have expressed interest in two veteran sluggers this offseason: J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner. Either of them would presumably fill the DH role, giving the Mets a more reliable fixture than the current plan of DJ Stewart and Mark Vientos.

But between the two right-handed hitters, which one should the Mets pursue? Jorge Eckardt and I share our takes, with me arguing for Martinez and Jorge for Turner.

J.D. Martinez

As Mets fans are certainly aware, signing any aging baseball player carries its risks. But, if it’s any consolation, Martinez is three years younger than Turner — 36 compared to 39 — and is coming off a stronger offensive season.

Martinez’s career peak was dominant, with a .330 average and 170 wrC+ in 2018. That same year, Turner put up his second-best wRC+ for a season at 154 (his best being 158). Each of them have steadily declined since then, but far from plummeted or lost all their value.

Martinez posted a 135 wRC+ in 2023, 21 points ahead of Turner’s 114. He hit 33 home runs — six more than Turner has ever hit in a season. Being that Martinez’s peak was higher, his current level is higher, and he’s a smidge younger, I see Martinez as the preferable option.

A few years ago, defensive value would have been an argument in Turner’s favor. But the once-reliable Dodgers third baseman only played 57 innings at the position for the Red Sox in 2023, transitioning into a primary first baseman after posting negative UZRs at third base in every season since 2017. At this point, he’s a below-average third baseman if he’s going to play there. And there really isn’t room at first base for the Mets with Pete Alonso having that taken care of.

Plus, for all the talk of Turner’s career resurgence, his bat did decline a little in 2023. His wRC+ was above average, but nothing special, at 114 this year. That was his lowest mark since he was a Met. Between the unspectacular hitting and lack of defensive value, he accumulated only 1.2 fWAR in 146 games.

Reuniting with Turner might be nostalgic, and it’s only natural for Mets fans to feel like they missed out on something after all the great years he had with the Dodgers. But at this point in time, Martinez has a little more juice left in the bat, and that’s who I think the Mets should pursue if they want a power bat to bolster their lineup.

Justin Turner

If the choice is J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner for the 2024 Mets, the pick has to be Turner. Don’t get me wrong, J.D. Martinez is better. However, Justin Turner is the better fit.

They’re both old, right-hand-hitting primary DHs who had productive 2023 seasons. Martinez was great, with 33 home runs and a .893 OPS but he also only played 113 games. One hand that makes his 33 home runs in less than 500 plate appearances even more impressive, but missing a noticeable chunk of games at 35 years old will always be a concern. Turner, on the other hand, played basically a full season, going over 600 plate appearances in 146 games at 38 years old. He also hit a solid 23 home runs with a very respectable .800 OPS, so while he was not quite as great offensively as Martinez, he was still good.

I also don’t know how much I trust Martinez’s 2023 season. He had a very down 2022, and his power noticeably dwindled down to just 16 home runs, and part of me wonders if the Dodgers just worked some of their magic on him in 2023. He very easily could come to the Mets and immediately turn back into a pumpkin. That said, it should be noted that Turner also had a down 2022, hitting just 13 home runs in 128 games, so that puts him back on even footing with Martinez.

Turner also plays the field, but Martinez does not. He’s not a good fielder anymore; he is definitely below average, but the point is he can do it. Martinez was in the starting lineup for 111 games last season. 110 of those starts came at DH. The other was in left field, where he played 12 innings over three appearances in 2023. Turner, while still getting 98 starts at DH, also got 35 at first base, four at second base, and seven at third base. He could have gotten more at third base, but the Red Sox have Rafael Devers, so not many starts are up for grabs there.

Martinez would clog up DH. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; having a set DH can be good, but it does limit you. Turner can serve as insurance to Brett Baty if he struggles again and takes starts in the field when it’s time to give other guys partial rest days at DH. Turner can play first while Pete Alonso DHs, or he can play third on days when the Mets want to get Francisco Álvarez out from behind the plate but keep his bat in the lineup. With Martinez, you can’t do that, and he’d have to not play at all on days when other players get DH starts. With Turner, he’d still be the primary DH, but he also brings at least some degree of flexibility.

MLB Trade Rumors predict Martinez to get a two-year, $40 million contract. An expensive, multi-year deal to a 36-year-old DH-only is a bad idea, especially when that player had a 31.1% strikeout percentage last year. He was really good at the plate last year. If you go to his Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of dark red, more than you would see on Turner’s. But the two dark blue circles next to Whiff % and K % are scary. When players with that much swing and miss start to drop off, they drop off hard. $20 million a year for the next two years isn’t worth the risk, especially when Turner is predicted at $16M.

Martinez is probably the better player, but Turner is a better fit and is less likely to require an unwise long-term commitment. Bring JT home.