The New York Mets are in a tough predicament this offseason, mostly self-imposed, as if the team wants to avoid the luxury tax, they will only have around $17 million to spend.
With multiple holes this offseason, the team will either need to fill some internally or look to the trade market to fill their needs.
Sure, they could just spread the money evenly for each of their needs. When you consider the team needs two relievers, a fifth starter, and a center fielder, that plan doesn’t seem that effective, though.
Even true fifth starters and relievers command $5-$10 million in today’s game. So, even if you take the low-end for all three of those spots, that leaves the team $2 million to sign a center fielder and possibly a backup catcher.
With that being the case, the Mets might try to fill one or multiple areas of need via trade. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that they are interested in Starling Marte.
The simplest means for the Mets to make a trade might be to deal directly from their roster with J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith probably making the most sense given their lack of a clear fit in the long-term picture for this team.
However, both players likely don’t have value to the point where the Mets could simply trade either of them straight up for someone they really want.
In that case, the team would be forced to dip into their farm system with Andres Gimenez probably the most obvious piece to be dealt given the lack of a true fit long-term with Amed Rosario penciled in at shortstop.
Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Matthew Allan are possibly deemed as untouchable by the organization given how highly-touted all three are and that the latter two were both drafted by Brodie Van Wagenen’s regime this past season.
Hitters like Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, and Shervyen Newton are among others that could be of interest to other teams. While trading Jarred Kelenic has and will continue to be a giant blow to the organization’s farm system, the team still has some bats that could be moved theoretically.
The Mets’ minor-league depth pitching-wise has been pretty compromised, though, especially over the last year with the team trading away Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Van Wagenen arguably traded away the organization’s top three pitching prospects within the last year.
David Peterson, Franklyn Kilome, Kevin Smith, and Thomas Szapucki are still intriguing arms in that system.
That being said, the Mets currently have Walker Lockett set to be their fifth starter as the team currently lacks pitching depth. Given the Mets’ past experience with starters getting injured, they should pause at giving up legitimate starting options in 2020.
Taking all of this into account, I won’t say that they can’t make a big trade if the right one comes about, but they have to be extremely selective about the deals they make going forward.
With the farm system pretty thin at this point and ranking in the bottom half of the league, the team doesn’t have room for error anymore. There can’t be another Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade.
The only way the Mets can really afford to make a blockbuster type trade is if they believe that they are getting very good value in the deal or if they believe that the player being acquired is the missing piece for 2020 playoff contention.
Otherwise, the risk is much higher than the reward for an already depleted Mets farm system.
