Can Brooks Raley Emerge As The Mets’ Next Gem In The Bullpen?

Last year, there were many question marks surrounding the New York Mets’ bullpen entering the season. By year’s end, it actually emerged, despite what some may have thought, as a very formidable unit. One of the main reasons why was the elite, and somewhat surprising, performance of Adam Ottavino.

On paper, the Mets’ bullpen entering this season is much stronger than it was last year. Though, if someone were to emerge like Ottavino did last season, it may make the potentially lethal unit even stronger. With that being said, what current member has a chance to put up an elite season like Ottavino did last year?

Brooks Raley

After a rough beginning to his major-league career, Raley spent five seasons with the Lotte Giants of the KBO from 2015-2019. Over this time, he posted a lackluster ERA of 4.13 as a starter. He then made the jump back to North America for the 2020 season as a relief pitcher for the first time in his career.

Across 20 innings in the MLB during the 2020 season, with two teams, he posted a 4.95 ERA. However, he struck out 27 batters and his xERA (3.11) and xFIP (3.63) were both much lower than his actual ERA. This indicating that his actual performances were influenced by some bad luck.

He spent all of 2021 with the Houston Astros posting a 4.78 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 49 innings. Though, once again, it appears the now 34 year old was impacted by some poor luck. During that same season he had an xERA of 3.81 and an xFIP of 2.91. Each figures once again indicating this phenomenon.

The following season, he was moved to the Tampa Bay Rays where he produced a career year. He threw 53 2/3 innings and struck out 61. His ERA finally matched up with his underlying metrics too. He posted a career-low 2.68 ERA to go along with an xERA of 2.79 and xFIP of 3.28.

Raley was subsequently traded to the Mets on December 8 for prospect Keyshawn Askew. Now he projects to be the team’s lead left-handed option in the bullpen.

What Makes Him The Likely Candidate? 

Much like Ottavino, Raley has always posted strong underlying metrics throughout his much-shorter career. In 2022, Raley had one of the best analytically makeups of any left-handed relievers in the league. This is evident by his Baseball Savant page posted below.

For comparison’s sake, although Raley posted a better season in terms of ERA, Ottavino’s underlying metrics the year before his breakout 2022 campaign were also very strong. His Baseball Savant page from that season follows:

Now, this is not a perfect comparison. Each pitcher are very different in that one is a right hander and the other is a lefty. Also, Ottavino is far more experienced than Raley is and it is not like Raley’s 2.68 ERA from last season was a catastrophic figure. This number is actually much stronger than the 4.21 ERA Ottavino posted before his breakout season in 2021. But, the overall point is the same. Each pitcher posted very strong underlying metrics, which is a great indicator of future success. As we saw in Ottavino’s case.

If Raley can post anywhere near a similar analytically profile as he did last season, he should be in for a terrific year. One that, looking back on in the future, you may even be able to draw parallels to when Ottavino emerged as a ‘surprise’ stalwart in the Mets’ bullpen during the 2022 season.