Francisco Lindor has been on an offensive tear lately. His last 15 games he is slashing .291/.371/.600/.971 and since coming off the injured list has raised his OPS from .669 to .743. He is now an above average hitter on the season with a 108 WRC+. As we approach the trade deadline, there are always arguments for and against trading any player, and Lindor is making the case for the Mets to keep him at the center of their core while also showcasing his talents for anyone that may be interested. Offensively, he looks largely like the player he has been for most of his years as a Mets so let’s break down why.

Francisco Lindor by Berto Carlo

Lindor “Under the Hood”

Much of what Lindor is doing compares well to 2025 and 2023. While 2025 season was a step down under the hood and results wise from 2024, he still ended that season with an .811 OPS and 129 WRC+. It is also important to recognize that his 2024 season where he placed second in the MVP race seems to be a bit of an outlier across the board.

Damage Rates

The first thing to look at is Lindor’s damage rates. While he likely never will hit his 18.1% damage per batted ball rate from 2024, his 12.2% this season is still good. It slightly down, but is still relatively is in line with his 15.9% in 2023 and 13.3% in 2025. His 104.1 miles per hour 90% exit velocity is right in line with 2023 at 104.6 and 2025 at 104.5 miles per hour. He is pulling fastballs at a higher rate than the last two years at 13.5%, which is almost identical to 2023 (13.6%). His 9.6% barrel rate is in-between his 8.1% in 2025 and his 10.2% from 2023. His 50.6% hard-hit rate is better than 2025 at 46.4% and 2023 at 48.9%.

While his overall damage rates are down slightly compared to the last three years, he is still getting to plenty of power and is not down substantially from 2025 or 2023. It is also possible that as he gets further removed from his injury these rates rebound or even potentially exceed 2025 or 2023.

Selectivity

Lindor’s selectivity metrics are also in line with 2025 and 2023. His 28.5 SEAGER (Selective Aggression Engagement Rate) is in-between 2025 at 25 and 2023 at 30.1. His 55.2% selectivity rate is better than his 53.2% in 2025 and 54.0% in 2023. His 26.7% hittable pitches taken percent is better than 2025 at 28.2% but down from 25.5% in 2024 and 23.9% in 2023. He is chasing less than the last three years at 31.8%. Part of these is because he is swinging at a much lower rate than the last three years so there is probably some passivity involved coming off injury, but overall he is still swinging at the right pitches at a respectable rate.

Contact Rates

In terms of contact rates his 85.8% zone contact rate and 5.3% contact over expected are mostly in line with the averages of past three years. His 28.6% whiff against secondaries is worse compared to the last three years at 24.9%, 26.4%, and 27.3%. His 23.5% whiff rate against velocity is up significantly from 2025, but right in the middle of where he was in 2023 and 2024. 2025’s 18.2% seems like an outlier. Overall, his general contact profile has taken a small dip this season but none of this should be viewed as a big concern, and overall is still a good contact profile.

Swing Metrics

Where Lindor has not lined up the same is fast swing rate and attack angle. His 30.4% fast swing rate is more than double his 15.1% rate from 2025 while his intercept point has been pushed back while his attack direction is six inches back and his intercept point is three inches back. Lindor’s vertical bat angle is also steeper than it has been in the past meaning he has not been optimizing his launch angle as efficiently.

Essentially Lindor has been prioritizing getting to power over contact more this year compared to recent years which has led him to be more susceptible to breaking balls. What this has done is  help him maximize his high end power. While this is a trend you tend to see as hitters age and start to see their athleticism decline, this could also be a reaction to his calf injury. It will be interesting to monitor and see if those fall more in line with his career norms as he is further removed from his injury.

Stats courtesy of Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus’s app.

What Does This All Mean?

Francisco Lindor is not the player he was in 2024. He probably will never be again and truthfully was not really that player prior to 2024 as well. But by and large he looks very similar to the player he was in 2025 and 2023. Those are seasons he was a 5.5 WAR and 6.3 WAR player, albeit with better defensive markers. Even with his slow start Lindor would be on pace for 4.4 WAR if he had not missed time due to injury and matched 2025’s plate appearance count. It is very possible he improves upon that pace as the season goes on.

There are some orange flags in his swing speed and bat path to monitor as he ages, but it is also very possible that could be a temporary adjustment due to the injury. Even if it is at all age related there is not a reason to think a fall off is necessarily imminent. Lindor is going to age—he is entering his mid 30s—but his skillset and ceiling gives him more to give back than your average player as he ages. That is the why you are more comfortable giving Hall of Fame-caliber players long-term contracts. As it stands, Lindor is still a player that should be able to put up multiple more 3-4 WAR or better seasons, ideally as a Met.