Photo by Chris Simon
The Mets have a serious problem. They are finding themselves between a rock and a hard place, as their farm system has gotten very thin over the last few seasons.
In 2020 after the Padres acquired Blake Snell, Steve Cohen received criticism for not going heavier into the starting pitcher trade market. Cohen responded by saying, “Newsflash, the Mets farm system needs to be replenished.”
The Mets right now have about eight formidable prospects: Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Matt Allan, J.T. Ginn, Mark Vientos, Alex Ramirez, and Khalil Lee. After that, things get really slippery for the Mets. The first five of those eight are their best, and are likely considered their “untouchables.”
Usually, the best way to grow a farm system quickly is to go into a rebuild, but the Mets cannot do that. Cohen wants to win, and he wants to win now. Going into a rebuild this early into his tenure as the owner would completely ruin his promise of winning the World Series within 3-5 years.
How do they replenish the farm system while also competing to win the World Series every year?
There are two different ways to do this, one of which became much easier after Noah Syndergaard departed.
The first way is through trades. The Mets have multiple pieces that can be traded away to bring a haul of good prospects. If they trade each player specifically listed below individually, or even in some package deals, they can get some high-level prospects.
The other way is to get a lot of draft picks in one year. If someone on the Mets was given the qualifying offer, then signs somewhere else, the Mets get a compensation pick. The Mets have already gotten one because Syndergaard signed with the Angels. If Michael Conforto signs elsewhere, it will give the Mets a second compensation pick.
On top of that, the Mets already have an extra compensation pick because they didn’t sign their first-round pick in 2021, Kumar Rocker. Therefore, they are in line to have three extra picks in the 2022 draft, and all three of them are within the first three rounds.
That being said, the Mets should be able to get themselves a nice boost to their farm system with five high-level draft picks, instead of just two.
Now, they can lose picks if they sign players that declined a qualifying offer. The Mets do have a three-pick safety net, but I doubt they will give up more than one of them. There are plenty of free agents on the market that can be signed that would set the Mets up nicely and not cost them a draft pick.
There is plenty of opportunities this winter to go from a thin farm system to a deep one. Realistically, the Mets could find themselves with a stacked top 10 at the end of this winter if they make the proper moves.
Potential Trade Chips: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis, Dom Smith, Tylor Megill, David Peterson
Jeff McNeil would likely bring the best haul of the bunch. He still has a few more years of team control and has the best upside out of the three. Obviously, they can only trade him if they sign Javier Báez or another second baseman.
Robinson Cano would probably be a tough sell. Because of his age and contract, there will likely be nobody willing to give the Mets anything of value in return. However, it’s still worth it to ask.
J.D. Davis has the ability to be a great player. In his first full season in the majors, 2019, he hit .307 with 22 home runs. However, he has struggled to stay on the field since. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a very valuable trade chip. He likely is the most valuable trade chip the Mets have because he isn’t a free agent until 2025.
Dom Smith has the potential to be a top player in Major League Baseball. He hit .316 in 2020, with an OPS of .993. In 2021, his stats dropped significantly. He batted .244 with a .667 OPS. While the Mets probably will give him 2022 to regain his 2020-self, they also could opt to trade him away while he’s still valuable.
If the Mets ever intend to trade Smith, this would be the off-season. His value is going to be high this winter, and not trading him runs the risk of a down 2022 season. Back-to-back tough seasons would drop his value significantly compared to what it would be if they traded him right now.
Tylor Megill is another player that can bring a lot back to New York in a trade. He has six years of team control, and given the opportunity could become a two-or-three starter.
Through his first seven starts, Megill had a 2.04 ERA and seemed like he may end up being a contender for NL Rookie of the Year. He tailed off significantly after that, as the league began to figure out his strategy.
However, he still has the tools to be a really great pitcher, and if the Mets trade him now they will get him at a really high value. Megill likely won’t fit in the Mets rotation after their offseason moves and is too good to be a depth piece waiting in AAA or the bullpen. Therefore, the Mets would be well-served to get a good haul of prospects in return.
David Peterson is coming off of an injury that could make him a question mark entering 2022. Similar to Megill, he probably won’t find himself in the Mets rotation and is too good to be a depth piece. Because Peterson is a lefty and has two years of experience, he also is someone that can be traded for valuable prospects.
Even if the Mets traded just two of these players this off-season, they would get a significant boost to their farm system. Trading all six would likely stack the top 10 prospects with formidable talent, thus replenishing what was once one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.
