Scenarios To Watch For With Mets In Second Half

Now that MLB’s All-Star break festivities are officially in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look back on the New York Mets’ first half, as well as looking forward to the stretch run.

All things considered, could the last three-plus months have yielded better results than a 47-40 record and a 3.5-game lead in the National League East? Well, yea, it should’ve when revisiting some opportunities that were squandered away. But it also could’ve been a lot worse, especially with all the injuries manager Luis Rojas‘ club had to deal with.

In keeping the “glass half full” mentality front and center, FanGraphs’ playoff odds still heavily favor the Mets. Here’s what the odds are for each NL East team to win the division and reach the postseason this year.

Playoff odds should be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s also worth noting that New York has been the only NL East club to stay somewhat consistent despite all the trials and tribulations.

As we get ready for the second half, here are three scenarios to watch as the guys in orange and blue try to capture their first divisional crown since 2015.

One-Run Games

So far in 2021, the general perception that winning teams excel in close games more often than not is mostly holding true. There are currently 16 teams with a winning record, and 10 of them are above .500 in one-run games. That doesn’t count the two clubs with a .500 record in that situation, too (San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics). Of the four with losing records, three of them are multiple games below .500 (Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays).

Looking back to 2020, there was more of a contrast. Of the 14 teams that finished with a winning record, only three teams also posted a losing record in this situation (White Sox, Yankees, and Reds), with just one of them being multiple games below .500 (White Sox).

This is an area where the Mets have performed well thus far, posting an 18-15 record. If we look at the past six seasons prior to 2021 (2015-20), we can see that the same trend applies here: Mets teams with winning records did well in one-run games, while Mets teams with losing records didn’t.

Having an effective bullpen down the stretch will be crucial, especially as the importance of each game starts to ramp up a bit. This has been a strength for New York, but it’s been rough recently. Their 1.9 fWAR and 4.06 ERA for the year are now in the middle of the pack after being toward the top of the league. It’s been due to recent struggles, as the ‘pen has posted a cumulative 4.65 ERA and an -0.8 fWAR since June 1st.

Playing Up and Staying Up

Last month, the two-week period between June 3rd and June 17th was the Mets’ first big test of the season. There were two games against the Baltimore Orioles mixed in, but this period included seven games against the Padres and four against the Chicago Cubs. Both clubs were well above .500 going into these head-to-head matchups, and that was a scenario New York had struggled with to start 2021.

Before taking the field for the series opener in San Diego, the Mets had a 2-10 record against winning teams. They ended up winning seven of those 11 games, which sparked even more success against clubs sporting a record above .500. They’ve improved that 2-10 mark to 16-15, which is quite impressive considering the hole they had to dig themselves out of.

The problem here? Well, that means New York has just a 31-25 record against losing teams. Coming out of the break, there is an off day on July 22nd, but a doubleheader in Atlanta means Rojas’ club will be playing 16 games in 16 days against the Pirates, Reds, Blue Jays, and Braves to finish off the month. So, let’s hope New York takes advantage of having three games in Pittsburgh before facing more challenging competition. That’s something they weren’t able to do prior to the break.

Separating From Rest of NL East

While FanGraphs’ playoff odds clearly favor the Mets to be the lone representative from the NL East in October, the actual standings don’t make things look that easy. Nine games are separating New York from the basement of the division — currently where the Miami Marlins are residing — but just six games separate them, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Washington.

That’s close enough for one hot week from any of those clubs to change how the standings look dramatically. And when NL East teams within the division this year, they’ve generally beaten each other up. The Phillies are the sole team with a losing record in this scenario (20-22), but only the Mets (19-18) and Nationals (17-16) have winning records, and just barely.

There’s plenty of opportunity for New York to separate itself from the rest of the pack, though. Of the Mets’ final 75 games, 36 are against a divisional opponent. That also includes 16 of their final 27 games in September alone. The Amazins have put themselves in a great position to qualify for postseason baseball for the first time since 2016. After a brief respite, it’s time to finish the job, and succeeding in all, or at least most, of these scenarios should help get it done.