With an 18-6 record since the All-Star Break, the Mets have found themselves with a 58-56 record. That puts them a mere 1.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the second NL Wild Card spot and only 2.5 games back of the Washington Nationals for the first spot.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets postseason odds have increased dramatically as a result. In fact, the Mets now have higher odds than any other team that is not currently in possession of a postseason spot at 37.3%, according to FanGraphs.
Exactly two weeks ago from Wednesday, the Mets odds fell to as low as 3.9% of making the postseason. Now, their odds to win the division are close to that number, at 2.8% while their odds of securing a Wild Card spot currently are the second-highest in the NL at 34.3%.
To be clear, the fact that the Mets sit 8.5 games back of the Braves and currently sit behind two other teams in the standings makes it very unlikely the Mets win the division. However, the Mets have nine games left with the 67-48 Braves so it certainly isn’t impossible with 48 games left in to go.
Serving as the biggest reason for the Mets resurgence is the team’s pitching staff, which has the best ERA in all of baseball since the All-Star break at 2.80. Replacing Jason Vargas with Marcus Stroman at the MLB Trade Deadline should only help matters in a rotation that now features Steven Matz as their fifth starter behind Stroman, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler.
The team also has scored the fourth-most runs in the National League since the break with 190, which trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Based on the odds given by FanGraphs, the Mets are expected to win the second NL Wild Card which could see them facing the division-rival Washington Nationals on October 2 at Nationals Park.
Many have been pointing out that the Mets have been facing bottom-feeders, but the fact is that the Mets have 18 games left against teams that are under .500 and have six games left against both the Nationals and Phillies, who currently are ahead of them in the standings.
The bad news is that the Mets also have 12 games left between the two best teams in the NL, with nine games against the Braves and three games against the Dodgers (76-40).
That being said, while the Mets haven’t faired well against the Braves this season, going 4-6 against them this season, the Mets actually haven’t been a pushover for them as evidenced by their record against one another. Six of their games also came during the Mets brutal month of June where they only won 10 games total.
Those in-division games are going to be crucial, though, and the Mets need to do better than their current 4-9 record against the Phillies and need to continue the pace they had against the Nationals this season, who the Mets have an 8-5 record against.
Whether or not you think the Mets’success is solely reliant on a weak schedule or if you believe that something has actually changed in Flushing, the team is doing their job right now by beating these teams and at an exceptional rate.
