The Value of a Wright Return

Even a casual onlooker could identify the next two points concerning the Mets, as the team tries to improve from last season to this season.

The Mets still need a shortstop.
David Wright needs to bounce back from a sub-par season.

For the diehard fans, these points have been analyzed over and over again. On Twitter. On these very blog pages. In newspapers. Everywhere. Which got me thinking… As we have beaten to death the potential for improvement at the shortstop position, would an improved David Wright provide similar value?

The Mets won 79 games last season despite Wright’s worst offensive season as a big leaguer. With the same roster, albeit a few new faces, the Mets are looking for improvement in 2015 through the development of their young pitchers, the return of Matt Harvey, and the resurgence of David Wright.

We can see in the table below just how far Mr. Wright fell off from his typical performance in 2014.

After an incredible 2013 campaign, Wright’s offensive numbers took a major dip. Overall, with his defense close to even between the two seasons, Wright’s WAR total fell from six wins to only 1.9 wins. A costly 4.1 drop in win value. Using ZiPS projection system, he is expected to gain some of that value back in 2015.

Now, let’s consider the other key point to the offseason chatter in Mets Land. The need for a shortstop. What if we looked at the projection for Wilmer Flores at short this season compared to Troy Tulowitzki‘s? No, we aren’t trying to get the Tulo talks going again. We are simply using a top-notch alternative to see the difference in their potential value in 2015.

No surprise – Tulo is expected to have a considerably better season than Flores in ’15. How much better? Well, part of this analysis depends on how much value you place in current defensive metrics. ZiPS projects Tulo to be a good defender, with Flores negatively valued. We can squabble over how big that difference should be, but let’s keep with their valuation for now. The difference in win value projects to be 3.1 wins. A pretty significant gap.

Projection systems vary on how much they expect David Wright to return to form this upcoming season. For the purposes of this analysis, I decided to use ZiPS. I could have used Steamer or PECOTA. The point is less the projection system and more the broad idea.

The Mets could acquire Troy Tulowitzki for free, play him at shortstop instead of Wilmer Flores, and gain a lot of value. But we all know that is not going to happen. Therefore, improvement in 2015 must come from within. If David Wright posted a five win season (less than 2013, but much improved on 2014), he would be adding as much win value (3.1 wins) as upgrading Wilmer Flores with the top shortstop in the sport.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and ZiPS.