One of the myriad reasons to love baseball is the way it mirrors life. You have to wake up every day and play.
Both good and bad days are assured, often without warning or expectation. Even the best teams will lose 60 times, and the worst will win 60. Each day by itself carries limited meaning, but forms a piece of an exponentially larger and unfolding mosaic.
Thus, it always seemed that the best possible philosophy for addressing the inevitable vicissitudes of life – and baseball – is one that combines optimism with realism, and seems particularly applicable to the 2018 New York Mets.
Expect the best, prepare for the worst. Goodness knows we’ve experienced enough of both over the last three seasons.
With just a few exceptions, the 2018 season will feature the same cast of characters who led us heroically to a most unexpected National League pennant in 2015, persevered admirably through 2016, and then lived through the nightmare of 2017, when everything went wrong. It was as if the bill came due for that unforgettable run to the World Series, when everything went right.
But as someone who has borne witness to every season since the team first took the field in 1962, it seems clear that 2018 presents as broad a range of possibilities as any season in franchise history. There are plenty of Mets fans who expect glory, and many who anticipate disaster. And a plausible case can be made for either scenario, and of course everything in between.
Let’s start with the “expect the best” scenario: Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard pitch like the aces they have proven to be. Steven Matz performs like the guy who has been so impressive, when healthy, and logs 140-160 innings.
Matt Harvey returns to a reasonable facsimile of his Dark Knight days, picks up a dozen wins with an ERA around 4 and anchors the bottom of the rotation. Jason Vargas, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Zach Wheeler fill out the rotation competently.
In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia regains his former touch enough to pick up 35+ saves. The three key setup relievers – AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Anthony Swarzak – excel in sharing the late-inning workload, while at least one of the front end guys – Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame, Fernando Abad, Hansel Robles et al. – exceeds expectations, and Gsellman/Lugo provide competent long relief.
On the offensive side, Yoenis Cespedes avoids injury and reverts to La Potencia, the power-laden difference-maker we have witnessed in the best of times. Michael Conforto picks up where he left off with his near 1.000 OPS of last season and becomes a lethal weapon.
Jay Bruce contributes 35 homers and 90 RBI. Todd Frazier adds much-needed stability to the left side of the infield and hits 25 dingers. The revitalized catchers, Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki, share the duties behind the plate and combine for 15-20 homers and 70 RBI. Asdrubal Cabrera hits around .275, plays a steady second base and aids in the development of Amed Rosario, who makes many a head-turning play at shortstop and develops into a genuine spark plug for the offense.
Adrian Gonzalez cracks 20 home runs, while Wilmer Flores gets 350+ productive at bats playing all around the infield, Jose Reyes adds the expected speed and switch-hitting, multi-positional versatility and Philip Evans and/or TJ Rivera prove valuable off the bench.
In this scenario, the Mets win upwards of 95 games, finish near or ahead of the Nationals and take it all the way to the World Series on the strength of a dominant one-two punch at the top of the rotation, a solid bullpen and league-leading power up and down the lineup.
It would be hard to dismiss the possibility of all or most of that happening. But at the same time, you can not discount the possibility of the “prepare for the worst” scenario: either deGrom or Syndergaard gets hurt, as both have in the last couple of seasons, and the top of the rotation is thinned out.
Steven Matz proves just as fragile as we have suspected, and as he has shown the last two seasons, and is limited to less than 100 innings with mixed results. Matt Harvey fails to revive his inner Dark Knight and continues his rapid descent. The rest of the reduced rotation struggles with its own injuries and inconsistencies and is not nearly enough to compensate for the loss of an ace.
In the bullpen, Familia can’t regain the touch he lost last season and struggles to hold the closer role. The three key setup relievers – A.J. Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Anthony Swarzak – are forced into larger roles than expected and collectively fail to compensate for a diminished closer. Paul Sewald is not as good as he showed last year and the rest of the second-tier relievers are overused and largely ineffective.
On the offensive side, Cespedes pulls a hamstring – or maybe a quad – one more time, misses large swaths of action and at an advancing age proves not to be the threat he once was. Conforto returns but is closer to the Conforto of 2016 than the 2017 version, and leaves us wondering if his serious shoulder injury is fully healed.
The one-dimensional Jay Bruce looks older and slower, and plays more like the guy we complained about two years ago than the one who excelled last year. Todd Frazier threatens the Mendoza line as he did last season. d’Arnaud suffers his usual array of injuries and Plawecki proves to be more the guy who struggled mightily in his first couple of stints in the majors than the one who raked in meaningless games last September.
Cabrera continues to age not-so-gracefully, as we saw when he tried to play shortstop last year. Rosario does not improve his poor plate discipline and compiles an embarrassing OPS.
In this scenario, the Mets are lucky to win 75 games. But after the injuries that threatened the 2016 season and ruined the 2017 campaign, can you dismiss the plausibility of this storyline any more than you can the “expect the best” narrative?
Of course, something in between glory and disaster is what likely happens, but if ever there was a half-full, half-empty debate to be had about an impending season, this is the year. So steel yourself by doing what prudent Mets fans should do as we count down the moments until opening day: expect the best, prepare for the worst.
