Jim Bowden of ESPN (Insider Subscription) polled a few general managers about the offseason so far, and when he asked them who they thought would be busts, one American League GM picked Curtis Granderson, while Olney himself picked Chris Young.
Which available free agent likely bombs with his new team and why?
AL GM: ”I think Ubaldo Jimenez will bomb. I don’t think he’ll ever be able to repeat his delivery well enough to be a consistent winner, and someone will give him a multiyear deal, while sacrificing a draft pick, that they’ll soon regret.”
NL GM: ”I’m still a little skeptical of [Ervin] Santana and Jimenez. I’m not sure they will ‘bomb,’ but there is a reason [other than draft picks] they are still available.”
AL GM: ”I think Curtis Granderson will bomb with the Mets. I think his power will be reduced to 20 home runs in that park and the strikeouts will be a problem with their thin lineup. I also think the player will begin his decline over the next year and a half.”
Bowden’s bottom line: For me, it’s the Mets’ other outfield signing – Chris Young – who will bomb. Young has been in rapid decline over the past four years, as his OBP dropped to a career-low .280 in 2013. He still has 20-home run, 20-stolen base ability, but his low average and high strikeout rate mean he cannot be an effective everyday player. He’s a solid clubhouse contributor but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as an $7.25 million fourth outfielder by the All-Star break.
MMO’s Bottom Line: Seriously, who cares what Jim Bowden thinks… It’s easy for them to pick Young and Grandy as busts considering the season each player is coming off, the strikeouts, and the age and length of the deal in Grandy’s case. However, I wouldn’t read too much into this. I’m shocked nobody picked Jhonny Peralta, Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano. All three of them have the biggest risk of being a bust for their new teams in my opinion.