15
2012
MMO Mailbag: Trading For Arencibia Or d’Arnaud?
An article by XtreemIcon
Lisa Pernice asks:
Now that Toronto got Buck, you think that we should try to get either d’Arnaud or Arencibia? If they didn’t have a logjam before, it looks like they have one now. What would the cost be?
Ramon asks:
Now that the Blue Jays acquired John Buck from the Marlins, do you think that the Mets have a good shot at attaining J.P. Arencibia? Though Travis d’Arnaud is a better option, it would be pretty unrealistic to acquire him. Arencibia is not quite as good defensively, but his offense more than makes up for it, plus he adds a right handed hitter to a lefty heavy lineup. He would be cheaper to acquire and even more so now that they’ve attained a couple of major league pitchers. I think someone like Mejia or Valdespin and some other decent pitching or position prospect could get this deal done.
XtreemIcon replies:
Well, Lisa, I’ll answer part of your question with part of Ramon’s. Travis d’Arnaud is pretty unrealistic. I don’t think he’s untouchable, but catching is so thin across baseball, to acquire a catcher of his ability and prospect status would require a significant over-payment on the part of the Mets. D’Arnaud is simply a stud prospect. His full minor league slash line is .286/.343/.474, but more impressively, his high minors (AA and AAA) slash lines are even better. Combining for 37 home runs in only 769 plate appearances, he hit .311/.371/.542 in AA and .333/.380/.595 in AAA. He threw out 28% of potential base stealers in the high minors and has gotten better as he’s moved up. Baseball America ranked him as the #17 prospect in baseball before the 2012 season. John Sickles of www.minorleagueball.com ranked him #26 before the season and #18 in a mid-season revision and the #9 hitting prospect in a preliminary 2013 ranking. There are myriad scouting reports that praise his defense, his arm and his game-calling ability. He’s as close to a can’t-miss prospect as there can be given how shallow his position is.
Ramon, I think you’re being too kind about Arencibia’s defense. He’s not good at all. In 2011, CBS Sports ranked him as the worst defensive catcher in all of baseball and he hasn’t improved much, if at all. He’s on the wrong end of the passed balls and wild pitches lists, despite only catching 800 innings in 2012, fewer than many other catchers. I also think you’re being too kind about his offense, which is incapable of a defense. I think the offense you think “more than makes up for it” is a quick look at his home run total. For a catcher, it’s not bad, but you have to remember he plays in a middle-of-the-road park for hitters right now. How would his 23 and 18 home run seasons in Rogers Centre translate to an extreme pitcher’s park like Citi Field? No too favorably, and I haven’t even mentioned his career .222 batting average and .275 OBP. Those are pretty good numbers…for a pitcher. Josh Thole had better numbers in his miserable 2012 that’s the cause of this discussion in the first place.
I wouldn’t give up Mejia or Valdespin for Arencibia straight up, let alone adding more pieces. The Mets certainly need to upgrade the catching, but overpaying for d’Arnaud isn’t the answer, and I’d much rather Thole, despite all his struggles, over Arencibia. We’re talking a higher batting average, a higher OBP and better defense from Thole, plus a track record of even better performance than what he showed in 2012. Arencibia’s track record is about what you’re seeing right now.
There’s another element to this, besides the individual talents of the players in question, and, Lisa, it’s that there’s really no catching logjam in Toronto. Jeff Mathis was included in the package that went back to the Marlins in Tuesday’s blockbuster trade, so that leaves only Buck and JP as the probable candidates to go north with the team out of Spring Training. D’Arnaud is still in AAA right now and will likely start the season there. Former Marlin John Buck is only signed through 2013 and is a lame-duck backup to Arencibia right now. When d’Arnaud pressures the Jays into calling him up, it’ll likely be at the expense of Buck via trade, as opposed to Arencibia.
If the Mets have to trade for a catcher, I give the Reds a call and inquire about Devin Mesoraco. He had very solid minor league numbers, but was buried in Cincinnati and put up Arencibia-like numbers in his sporadic playing time.
The difference is that the jury is still out on Mesoraco because of his minor league track record and the fact that he hasn’t played every day in the big leagues. JP has, and maybe he improves slightly over time, but that still doesn’t give you a good catcher. Mesoraco can’t cost much, would definitely be cheaper than Arencibia, and still has a shot to be a solid catcher at only 24-years-old. If Dusty Baker won’t give him the shot, the Mets should. The minimal cost of acquiring him can’t hurt the team if he doesn’t work out.
Thanks for the questions, Lisa and Ramon. If the readers have any questions for the staff at MMO, click here to submit them.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
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Thank you for a realistic article. Hard to imagine any scenario where the Jays trade D’Arnaud. He’s that good.
Agree. I can’t see the Blue Jays giving him up.
D’arnaud??? I think it can be done… Wright and Dickey for D’arnau and lawrie
The Travis d’Arnaud numbers are too impressive to overlook. Right now there really isn’t a Mets catcher at any level of their minors that even gives a hint of making an impact at the major league level. Plawecki who I believe is the highest rated catcher has only one low short season A ball under his belt. Centeno is probably the closest but still has alot to prove. We’ve seen all too many times through the years the Mets over value their prospects and consider them “untouchables”, only to have them fizzle out in the majors. That needs to change and the time is now while we have some depth at pitching. I say roll the dice and roll em now. Put a nice package together with no one being untouchable and try to lure d’Arnaud to Flushing.
hard to mention any trade being done without any mention of either catcher’s ability to drive in runs. RBIs not mentioned at all.
“And the Mets have now lost 4 in row and their inability to hit with runners in scoring position continues”
We’ve heard it a million times and these guys will never learn.
Bayonne, thanks for reading and commenting… I do agree (THIS), who cares about driving in runs anymore. it seems like a lost art with this team but you do know the reason why?? Numbers.. OBP and advance stats indicate that JP is a POS because his BA and his OBP are very low, forget his HR total and his RBI total, his inability to draw walks is what people focus on..And also, notice how they accused him of being the Worst defensive catcher? Did this people see thole???
You would think that a person following the Mets would be aware of catchers who drive in big runs in big spots whether they were starters or backups (Carter, Piazza, & Pratt) and during the early part of Barajas’ stay here what’s he remembered for? His ability to walk or his good start when he got big hits to drive in runs from the bottom of the order, unfortunately he went into a slump, never recovered and was moved.
Now we don’t talk about RBI’s anymore or ability to drive in runs and for a team that every fan here should remember as one that has had many slumps due to their inability to get hits with runners in scoring position it’s pretty ignorant.
I actually agree that in the 7 spot the ability to drive in runs is much more important than OBP. That was why I never had the hatred for Frenchy as long as he batted 7th.
Because RBIs are a bye-product. When you look at what he actually did to be awarded those RBIs and look at the difference between the Rogers Centre and Citi Field, you can bet his over all offensive production, including post facto stats like RBI, will take a significant hit.
Honestly, I think it’s a terrible idea to even think of trading for a highly regarded catcher. They are incredibly overpriced on the market right now and given the lack of talent the Mets have in trade it would take what we have for a guy that on an offensive scale is slightly above average. I would much rather use our chips for an impact bat and then find a very solid veteran defensive catcher to pair with Thole than to overpay in trade for a catcher.
I would focus more on guys like Trumbo instead of the catchers in Toronto.
Good Catchers who play defense and offense in MLB are like good Centers who play offense and defense in the NBA
You are more likely to get one in the draft than on the free-agent market
Maybe the trade market, but said team has to have at least 2 catchers that fit that description.
Thats why the Twins traded Wilson Ramos and were kicking themselves in the arse 9 months later for it
The Blue Jays got a sh*tload of catchers now, they are not trading their BEST one and IMO a catcher that sucks at catching has a more negative effect on 5 SP and 8 relievers. Has a negative effect on middle-infielders as well.
The only folks who advocate that are the ones who never played a game in their life
We are better off bringing a cheap wise old veteran to MENTOR the Thole’s, Centeno’s, Pawlecki’s of our system than trading for a glorified DH
See when we talk strictly baseball, you and I have a lot in common at times.
“We are better off bringing a cheap wise old veteran to MENTOR the Thole’s, Centeno’s, Pawlecki’s of our system than trading for a glorified DH”
“I would much rather use our chips for an impact bat and then find a very solid veteran defensive catcher to pair with Thole than to overpay in trade for a catcher.”
I’m all about winning.
Thole? Better than Arencibia? LMAO.
EXACTLY!
Are you kidding I would give up a Valdi or Mejia for Arencibia in a heartbeat. Sorry but I can deal with the low BA if he has some pop in his bat, especially for a catcher. And especially over this slap hitting Thole that we keep expecting to get better but continues to regress. This team is in desperate need of power and that kind of bat would fit in real well in this lineup. Also his home/away splits are pretty even across the board so I don’t think the Skydome can be used as a disqualifier. Catching is such crap in the league to to have a young one with some pop would go a long way.
You are assuming his power would maintain in Citi Field.
Look at his splits, he actually has better production away from the dome.
2011
Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Home 224 25 45 13 2 13 40 17 63 0.201 0.262 0.451
Away 219 22 52 7 2 10 38 19 70 0.237 0.302 0.425
2012
Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Home 162 22 34 9 0 9 25 8 50 0.21 0.254 0.432
Away 185 23 47 7 0 9 31 10 58 0.254 0.293 0.438
For his career, he has 19 road HR.
5 in Arlington, 4 in Fenway, 2 in Baltimore, 3 of the 5 top hitter friendly parks in the AL. The other 2? Yankees Stadium and the Rogers Centre.
The NL East Parks rate neutral or lower, especially to right handed hitters (Philly being the exception if it is a dead pull hitter).
lol…you break down every batters HR’s in each park and call them bandboxes lol…FYI Donal the whole league is full of Bandboxes.
I guess its the effects of Jason Bay or David Wright or the old Citi Field dimensions
Kelly Shoppach will mimic Arencibia and wont cost more than $1.5 million. We shouldn’t give up anything of value if we dont have too. Shoppach and Arencibia are identical twins.
Hmmm:
.233 .275 .435 .710 with 18 HR and 56 RBI in 347 PA in a very strong offensive lineup.
.233 .309 .425 .733 with 8 HR and 27 RBI in 245 PA in offensively struggling lineups.
You might be on to something without knowing enough about really either of them defensively.
Personally I would rather have Laird.
.282 .337 .374 .710 but looks like he is getting gobbled up by the Braves due to them losing Ross.
56 RBI in 347 ABs is very impressive and i wouldn’t sweat the low batting avg because:
1) you can’t have a statistically perfect guy at every position like the saber goons want – it’s just not happening
2) More realistically this guy is going to be batting 7th and the importance of driving in runs doesn’t end with the middle of the order. When those guys get hits somebody behind them has to drive in runs as well
The author mentions NOTHING that has to do with driving in runs and he wants to talk trade? Ignorance at it’s very best.
True Bay but even you have to admit that it’s much easier to drive in those runs batting 8th or 9th in a productive lineup. That being said he has had a history of hitting better than his normal stats with RISP so that’s not to say he isn’t responsible for those RBI as well.
I guess what I am saying is I don’t think we should expect him to get the same RBI on the Mets just because he got that many on the Jays.
I don’t get into that too much because that’s over-thinking and the same guy, if he has a knack for driving in runs, can do it with less offensive lineup because you don’t know how the games play out and even though it may be a less offensive lineup they just may happened to be getting runners on at the right time for the bottom of the order.
Basing everything on how the rest of the lineup does is sometimes losing the forest for the trees
I guess we will agree to disagree there. Hitting 8th or 9th for an above average offense will result in more RBI chances than a guy hitting 7th for a poor offense. More RBI chances for a guy like JP is gonna equal more RBI.
Again, not enough to argue about.
well in YOUR opinion it’s not enough to argue about. If a guy can drive in runs than he can drive in runs. Maybe the team falls offensively in the middle. I’m just interested in winning and not stat compiling so if a low hitting catcher with power is available than i would like a guy like that in the bottom of my order. Whether he’s driving in more because he’s on a more offensive team or he’s driving in a little less but doing a better job with his new team which is slightly less offensive is mute and basically silly to debate.
I agree we should mute this debate.
Arencibia is overrated offensively and is barely average defensively. Shoppach is a good comparison.
Overrated???
Arencebia is 26 and has only played “2″ seasons in the MLB. If he were a young Met you’d be saying how promising he was.
I honestly just expect the Jays to dump Buck. It was more likely that the Marlins just required him to be part of the trade and the Jays will try to trade him and then just dump him. Didn’t the Mets do that a few years back with a catcher? Can’t remember who anymore.
I mean seriously what would the Jays want with Buck?
.192 .297 .347 .644
Jays wont dump Buck theyve always liked him since he went to the Allstar game and put up really good numbers for them 2years ago.
And he is their only Vet catcher after losing Mathis. Theyre not gonna house 2 young backstops next year especially with the team they are forming. I suspect Arencebia is the odd man outdue to his value and the fact they seem to like D’Arnauds potential more.
The comments regarding his defense are premature Arencebia has improved defensively in only his 2nd season in the pro’s and received praise for the way he handled the pitching staff in 2012.
You seriously lost me at Thole!?!?
No baseball team in their right minds would agree with your assessment of Thole compared to Arencebia and what he might cost. Thole is TERRIBLE defensively never blocks the plate, pass balls on routine Fastballs, forget about balls in the dirt. His offense NO COMMENT…he’s a slap hitter that didnt produce ANYTHING last year….Id rather have a catcher that cant handle a pitching staff and hit forr power than Thole…and the mets agreed which is why fat Shoppach got all the playing time when he came over….
Im gonna shoot my tv the next time i see thole call time and walk to the mound to talk to the pitcher…he does it WAY TOO MUCH…im sure the pitchers hate that as well
“The comments regarding his defense are premature Arencebia has improved defensively in only his 2nd season in the pro’s and received praise for the way he handled the pitching staff in 2012.”
This.