30
2011
Mets Prospect Hub On Lagares, Wheeler, Nimmo, Fulmer
An article by 
Tej from Mets Prospect Hub was kind enough to answer a couple of questions for me the other day via email:
In Baseball America’s most recent rankings of the Mets top prospects, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Fulmer held three of the top ten spots with Wheeler tabbed as the organization’s top prospect. Is that an indication of how talented these three prospects are or how poor the Mets farm system was to begin with? When do you think we’ll see them on the big club?
Wheeler is absolutely the goods, mid to upper 90s fastball, and an absolutely devastating curveball to go along with it. The only reason (IMO) he didn’t see Binghamton this year is because both the Giants and Mets had him on a strict pitch/innings count. He should open there in 2012 and form one of the nastiest rotations in minor league ball with Familia, Harvey, and… yeah, Gorski. (big sigh)
Nimmo is a raw, toolsy high school outfielder we took with our first overall pick, but everything you’ve heard about him says he’s highly advanced for his age, and should move quicker then the normal HSer. We’ll see on that, because I wouldn’t be surprised to see him open 2012 in Savannah.
Fulmer almost seems like a Wheeler clone, from what I know of him. Low to mid 90s fastball and a good curve. To answer your question, I’d say it’s an indication of how talented these three players are. They rank 2, 6 and 7 on my personal prospect list (Shameless plug alert: http://www.metsprospecthub.com/minor-league-report/postseason-2011-top-50-prospects/)
I’ve been hearing a great deal about Juan Lagares in recent months. What can you tell me about him, and is this someone we can project for the big league roster in the future?
Juan Lagares was supposedly a very toolsy, athletic shortstop and the FIRST thing I remember reading about him was that “he’s better then Reyes was at this age (16)”. That would be an eyeopener, and the person who said that was the scout who signed both of them.
However, the Mets were really stupid and jumped Lagares from the DSL to Savannah (a 3 level jump), and Lagares languished for years before breaking out last year (2010), and then exploding this year. However – words of caution: His BABIP was crazy nutso, .376 in A+ and .436 in AA. His IsoD was 42 in A+ and 21 in AA, and his IsoP was 156 in A+ and 142 in AA. Basically – his breakout season was carried by being very lucky, he had below average plate discipline and average-ish power. And I apologize for dropping SABR stuff all over my answers.
In the words of Darth Vader – “Apology accepted”. Thanks, Tej…
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
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Joe D, correct me if i am wrong, what exactly did he mean with all that saber crap??? is lagares a good player or not? also, he mentioned the word lucky, first of all, as a hitter not only you can be good, but you HAVE TO BE lucky as well, you can hit the ball HARD as hell but right at somebody, then put the bat on the ball and get a hit, that is why sabermetrics are ruining the game, sabermetrics do not take in count when you hit the ball in the gap and an OF makes a GREAT DIVING play to rob you of an extra basehit, my believe will always be is not stats, is the game you have to watch to judge a player…
The idea that Lagares is getting numbers like that through sheer luck doesn’t hold much water with me. The guy is developing, which is what we all wanted right? Sure he may not be ready quite yet, but he’s opening in AAA this year for the first time, let’s see what he does for a full season there. If he continues to hit the ball, we know he plays very good defense, so why wouldn’t he be a candidate to be called up to Citi sometime in 2012?
Petey. THANK YOU!!!!!! the guy is all over the place with his prospects, he picks nimmo, fulmer and wheeler 3 of his top 10 prospects and provide a “still not sure” tag on them, he calls lagares hits basically lucky hits, yet has nimmo as the savior… seeing this made me appreciate what MMO brings to the table in terms of minor league players.. Petey, have a happy new year, nothing but good things to you and your family
Thank you Alex! Wishing you and your family a happy and healthy New Years too!
Right, Pete. Minor league numbers don’t matter as much as the development. If the kid is showing maturity and ability, I don’t care if he hits .350 or .250. The numbers will be there if his skills are.
Wheeler, Nimmo and Fulmer (Garcia as well) are just going to have to realize that a very small segment of “Met Fans” would like them to fail because they weren’t obtained by their lord and master, Mullah Omar. Therefore they are not worthy to inhabit the same field and clubhouse graced by the anointed prospects.
The majority of Met Fans just want to see them all come through. Each and everyone one.
Agee, i really feel sorry for you… i truly do…
Oh please with all the histrionics…
No one WANTS them to fail it’s just that MANY of us here are smart enough to know that those guys whenever they come up are not going to be SUPERMAN catching the locamotive from falling off the damaged bridge!
Some folk make them out to be SUPERMEN and they are just baseball players!
No one hopes they fail and most don’t even think they WILL fail, just won’t have much of a chance if the team is destroyed before they get here!
Do the words Generation K ring a Bell?
People thought they were going to come up and do the same thing you guys think these guys are going to do.
Many have seen that movie and we know how it ends!
Yes, not all prospects make it, no different than expensive free agents like Werth, Figgins, Dunn, Soriano, Lackey, Silva, Crawford, Bay ect ect.
The prospect that doesn’t come through for you though doesn’t clog up your roster, contribute losses to your Major League team, prevent you from getting a better player later and preclude you from possibly drafting a guy who does make it, and make it big later on.
Wilson had the exact same injury Santana has right now and Izzy did have a career in the Majors. 15 years and a couple of All Star games. Not bad for a 44th rounder.
Development is a very important part of the whole process. Steve Phillips and Jim Duguette were running the farm in those days and pitched those guys damn near 200 innings and allowed them to throw many complete games at a very young age.
200 Innings before a pitcher has Major League command and control is usually more pitches than a Major League pitcher would need to do the same. The argument that poor prospect development is a reason to sign a bunch of guys that cost a fortune and break down on you in the Majors is a very weak argument indeed.
“The prospect that doesn’t come through for you though doesn’t clog up your roster”
Sure it does!
How many guys could be playing where F-Mart plays if we were not so busy trying to make him into something?
Please thos clogging the roster is only important to you who would rather everyone was a homegrown and maybe if we didn’t screw the pooch THREE TIMES IN A SINGLE 1st ROUND we wouldn’t have needed all those All Stars clogging up our roster!
You do realize all the guys Omar gave away 1st round picks for were All Stars don’t you?
You can clog my roster with All Stars any day of the week I will merely LOVE you for it!
Thats what the GM is SUPPOSED to try and do!
Not keep the Wilpons flush in steak dinners!
You can’t compare these prospects to Gen K. Gen K were rushed and abused by The Mets. Fullmer, Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Mejia(who was rushed and abused by Omar and Jerry) all have the potential to be huge contributors if they are developed right. Sandy has said on multiple occasions that our prospects wont be rushed for any reason.
Sure I can…High Hype and Promise…no results!
Who are the names most used to say we will be winning soon?
Reyes? Wright?
Or the three Kings of the mound
Wheeler Harvey and Familia?
Metsie once again contradicting himself and proving our point. Like he constantly does so well.
Why not Wright and Reyes? because they are now expensive commodities and the ship has sailed on them to build a team around to win, because you need several young cost controlled studs, like everyone that has won anything in the last twenty or thirty years has shown. So now we have to rely on new guys like those three.
See you are starting to get it. I think you argue just to argue, maybe out of pure boredom. You can’t possibly actually think 99% of what comes out of your mouth. Maybe this is all a joke and you purposely try to f*ck with everyone on here. I picture you sitting at your computer with a villainous chuckle as you write this stuff. or maybe like Dr. Evil petting mr. bigglesworth, because you know all the blatantly incorrect things you say will start an argument with smart people. Maybe you get a rise out of it or something. But either way it can’t be real. You can’t actually think this stuff that you say. I don’t want to believe there are 49 year old met fans out there that are this dense.
You know Chritine, If you actually wish to enter into a discussion it will require you to read beyong the line that says METSIE and make a point based on what follows that!
I asked who was going to help Generation K2
You as usual wne off on your own Story telling tangent that had NOTHING to do with the discussion.
I guess thats a product of not teaching reading in Kindergarten.
What have you been using to post Dragon Dictate?
Or does Mommy type it all out for you?
I know WordPress doesn’t support Crayon OCR so thats not it!
Can you answer the question of who is going to play behind and help Harvey, Familia and Wheeler (aka Generation K2) win games?
Or do we go back to the My Daddy is bigger than yours level of childish discussion you so known for?
I don’t, nor does anyone, know the answer to that question Metsie. you love to ask questions no one has the answer to and then point and say HA! I TOLD YOU! when we can’t answer it. If these players pan out, hopefully the Mets go and get some players that can compliment them so we can win consistently. Hopefully they come from our own system, because that means they are very cheap which means we are making more profit.
Baseball business 101 for Metsie again:
the less money you are paying good players, the more profit you are making.
the more profit you are making, the more good free agents you can go out and buy.
good cheap homegrown players + good free agents = winning
it has to be done in that order or you get the 2007-2011 Mets.
oy.
Funny how those LACK OF ANSWERS doesn’t stop you from insulting the users who DO!
Funny how NOT KNOWING allows you to predict success from Alderson!
Funny how your LACK OF KNOWLEDGE doesn’t stop you from making points you can’t prove!
No I take it back, not funny just very very sad!
That Stupidity can be so stupid that they actually think they could be correct about something!
“I want Frickin Sharks with Frickin Laser Beams! Throw me a frickin bone here!”
No results? Of course there’s no results for these kids, none of them have made it past AA! Fullmer and Nimmo have barely any pro action PERIOD! The reason they are being hyped so much is due to the fact they jumped to the top of the Mets farm immediately due to the lack of any sort talent in the system before they showed up. An educated fan knows that a few of these guys will bust and not make it. But you cant deny the upside of these kids. Calling them Gen K2 is a bit premature. Lets see what they can do in AA/AAA?Majors befor proclaiming them duds or such. If anything we should be happy with the growth of the system over the past 2 years. The Mets finally have depth and wont have to give contracts like Bays and Johans out if we can build up the farm system.
“Fullmer and Nimmo have barely any pro action PERIOD!”
Precisely yet they are named as the SAVIORS of the FRANCHISE despite NO DATA to base it on!
“Lets see what they can do in AA/AAA?Majors befor proclaiming them duds or such.”
Shouldn’t we also stop calling them the Saviors as well?
You see I’m not saying they are duds!
Just that there is a lot of people using their names to say GREAT JOB SANDY and WE WILL WIN IN TWO YEARS!
based on all this nothing you don’t want me to use to judge them DUDS!
I agree who knows if they are duds or not. I just know that even if Harvey Familia and Wheeler are not they will flop with Torres and Tejada as the most dangerous hitters in the lineup!
Won’t get the outs if Murphy and Tejada is the only decent DP combination we can come up with!
Won’t win many games if Wright and Davis both get traded for another 4 years way future SAVIORS and we can’t score any runs to support them!
I agree it’s too early to call them DUDS and it’s just as too early to think they are going to make a team devoid of any good players better!
No one is calling Fullmer and Nimmo saviors. They are being lauded because they are the type of players Omar stayed away from. Omar almost never took high upside, overslot guys(I know Harvey fits in that, but hes the exception). If anyone is being called Saviors its Harvey, Familia, Wheeler, and to a lesser degree, Mejia.
Omar had a real bad habit of going for safe slot friendly players. And it hurt the farm big time. I will give Omar some credit for the IFA’s he signed like Mejia and Familia.
No one?
I think you need to read this site a bit more dude!
Who is Garcia?
An IFA catcher we signed last July out of Panama.
Thanks for that haha. I missed that signing…
BABIP is used to measure luck. under your scenario, traditional stats tell us he is a lousy hitter.
However, factoring BABIP, you see he is most likely having a run of bad luck.
I find it hysterical that in your attempt to rail against advanced stats, you actually provided a case for them. well done.
“that is why sabermetrics are ruining the game, sabermetrics do not take in count when you hit the ball in the gap and an OF makes a GREAT DIVING play to rob you of an extra basehit,”
Yes, it does. Advanced metrics give attention LD, DB and FB percentages and adjust opinions accordingly. It’s batting average that doesn’t care how hard you hit the ball or how great the catch was that robbed the batter of a hit. All it says is that the batter was out, and that’s of the very many reasons it’s flawed.
If someone hits .230, you’ll say he sucks, but a smart fan will look at his OBP, his BABIP, his batted ball percentages and his plate discipline and several other metrics to determine if he’s good. That’s the difference between you and a smart fan.
you know, is guys like you who complain about the mets not being a good team, yet you’re the first one in line drooling about an acquisition of someone who hits 230 and has an 300 OBP.. if a hitter hits 230 wouldn’t you say he SUCKS?? if you don’t then my intuitions about you being a idiot are true… i don’t have any desire to discuss baseball with someone like you, who all you do is kiss alderson’s as* and praise all moves he makes without looking at the big picture (Last Place), you’re the kind who celebrates sandy having a GOOD DAY without seeing that ever since that “good day” he has done absolutely nothing, nothing but hot air is what he’s given us mets fans, but no, i’m sure he’s still the best GM in met history according to you…
A .230 hitter might suck, but it’s not his batting average that tells us that. Are we talking about Lagares? I thought he had a breakout season? Who hit .230/.300?
If someone hits .230, you’ll say he sucks, but a smart fan will look at his OBP, his BABIP, his batted ball percentages and his plate discipline and several other metrics to determine if he’s good”
get me someone that hit 230, and is a good player… seriously, i’ll give you all day for you to gather all your saber crap and get me a player who hit 230 and is a good player… man..
Players in 2011 who hit .230ish:
Jayson Werth, Dan Uggla, Danny Espinosa, Chris Young and Carlos Santana. Only took me three minutes.
There you go, are any of those good players?!!?
uggla 233
werth 232
santana 239
young 236
imo. none of those are good players… but for their respective team they may be… or if you compare them with the below averages players then yes…
Those are all good players. Every last one one them.
Jason Bay hit 245, i do not wanna hear ever from you that jason bay is a bad player or that he sucks ok…
Jason Bay most certainly does not suck. How could you even think that? He’s overpaid, he’s a bust for what was expected of him and he’s hurting the Mets more than he helps, but he’s not a terrible ball player.
He’s not a liability defensively, hits LHP fairly well and reports say he’s a great clubhouse guy. That’s exactly the kind of ROLE PLAYER the Yanks signed for a negligible contract during their dynasty. Unfortunately, Omar game him essentially 5/$80 mil.
Bay’s offense relative to the position he plays sucks and this notion that he’ll turn it around with the fences moved in is laughable. He’s hit far better at home than on the road the last two years.
He’s had one very good month out of 12 in the batters box Sept. 2011. Could he turn it around? I’ve seen stranger things but I highly doubt it. A platoon of Duda/Evans could have produced much more, backed up 1B as well and covered 75% of Reyes’ contract.
No doubt Bay is killing the Mets. But I don’t blame him for agreeing to the contract that’s crippling the Mets. I sure as hell wouldn’t turn down $80 mil I didn’t deserve.
Really they are all Good?
Well then Luis Castillo must be a damned Hall Of Fame candidate then too!
Castillo (2010) .235 BA 337 OBP!
Dear GOD how did we let such a great player get away from us!
Drip Drip Drip goes the Sarcasm!
Because I know Chris, Donal and Tag will try to quote me if I didn’t point that out!
There you go, painting everything with one broad brush again. You need to stop pretending that one stat defines a ballplayer. Castillo, while having a poor batting average like the rest of those guys, had nothing else going for him. He had no speed left, terrible defensively, he brought nothing to the table. He had one last hurrah in 2009, then that was the end of him.
It takes more than one attribute to make a successful ballplayer.
Dude your the one who painted with the broad OBP brush not me!
Just pointed out that Castillo fit your criteria of Low BA High OBP!
And I don’t see how you can Say Uggla had anything in the fielding department Castillo didn’t have I mean Castillo had a lifetime .984 FP and Uggla only a .980!
Or are you merely downgrading him because he wore a Met Uni like most other around here seem to do?
I could have mention Francouer as well but he wass just under .300 OBP and didn’t want to get into a Quibbling match over thousadths of percentage points.
Please find where I said Uggla was a good fielder? Is that where I just recently said Moneyball is not a philosophy? Only after you said it days ago? Not where I said it a year ago?
Well you did say this about Castillo…
“He had no speed left, terrible defensively, he brought nothing to the table”
So it’s safe to assume you meant Uggla had all that!
Want to talk about something else regarding Uggla and Castillo be my guest but none of that is reflected in his OBP now is it?
Bottomline you mentioned fielding regarding Castillo and I pointed out that Uggla was not any better in that area!
So NO smartass I didn’t put words in your mouth and the last time you accused me of it it was that Maneyball was not a PLAN which you didn’t deny until AFTER I said something, Before then you just said it was not a philosophy…
Now go call MNJ to help you out again!
Metsie we’re well used to your sarcasm here. We know when it exists and when it doesn’t.
You certainly weren’t being sarcastic when you tried to pin Coleman onto Mcilvaines resume.
Where as the Sarcasm when you said McIlvane didn’t waste 1st rounders by taking who he did?
McIlvane wasted 5 1st rounders and it is hard to say Omar wasted even one of them!
He got Alou, Wagner, K-Rod, Harvey, Davis, Havens, and Pelfrey.
This compared to McIlvane who got Wilson, Long Payton Jaroncyk and Stratton!
He gained two 1st rounders to go with his top overall pick and struck out three times!
Might as well have given those picks away for all stars it might have saved him from getting fired two year later!
Those guys X mentioned all had about 50 X base hits too.
Not exactly the same thing.
Not to mention Young is about the best defensive CF in baseball and is a good baserunner, as well. Werth also is a decent baserunner and a good fielder. Uggla has incredible raw power. Every one of those guys brought something extra to the table. All Castillo brought was bad memories and no hope.
So did Francouer, Didn’t seem to matter to the OBP crowd then did it?
again, .337 OBP isn’t a great OBP. only slightly above average. so if you have only a slightly above average OBP and have nothing else, you are a pretty bad player.
now, if that .337 is, say, .387, then he should be in the lineup eight days a week because only 13 players did that this year, regardless of what else he brings to the table. If you don’t understand what a .387 OBP does to a lineup (whether its with a .250 BA or .300 BA…the extra BA is just bonus because the exra hits may be driving in runs. so your ideal playes are players with great OBP AND high BA, or more preferribly Slug%), and its ability to score runs, then you will never understand. and you will continue to argue on here, and sound foolish doing it.
I’d take Carlos Santana and his .230 ish BA anyday of the week.
To think that a terrific young catcher like him could be available for just Casey Blake at the deadline and we weren’t in on it is a real shame.
Wilson and Butera had been traded out of the system, Flores lost to rule 5. Pena not showing much, Thole having less than 100 games behind the dish and Nickeas, Cassonova and Cancel in AAA.
Missed opportunity.
I’d take Young over Pagan and Werth is a better player than Bay. Nats can keep his contract, though. Contract involved, I’d actually rather have Bay. But Werth is a better player.
a .300 OBP isn’t that good, to be honest. I have no idea why you think someone would be lauded for it. Also, OBP is not a sabermetric. It was actually invented by a guy working for Branch Rickey.
.300 OBP is terrible, whether you hit .300 or .200. I’ve never seen anyone on a fan blog who knows less about the sport than Metsie. he makes Bayonne and Alex look like Bobby Valentine. He’s completely misinformed about all aspects of the game. it’s hilarious.
I remember last off season when he argued that pitches out of the strike zone were easier to hit than pitches in the strike zone and most hits are had on pitches out of the zone. I will never forget that one. How can you?
and what Omar did with the mets was successful because the attendance went up and we had three meaningful septembers in a row. But what Beane did with the A’s was a complete failure, when he was having meaningful septembers, and winning over 100 games and making the post season. in that instance, meaningful septembers mean nothing, because it doesn’t fit with his agenda.
the list could go on and on and on and on…..
Yep I kow nothing right?
And you jut said a guy who hits .300 is terrible because he didn’t walk!
Keep on going my little kindergarten friend!
Remember the time you crapped your pants and your mom had to change your diaper?
You Should it was just the other day!
“a smart fan will look at his OBP, his BABIP, his batted ball percentages and his plate discipline and several other metrics to determine if he’s good”
And smart pitcher will simply throw him strikes and make that .230 average make something happen avoiding the OBP altogether!
High OBP is useless with a low BA!
Because the low BA shows the opposition that he is WEAK on Hitting and Good at Walking!
So don’t pitch to his strength pitch to his WEAKNESS instead!
Throw him strikes and make his weak hitting bat make the play because his OBP is useless unless the Pitcher offers him that opportunity!
Cool. You keep thinking that. You keep telling your pitchers to throw strikes all the time and see how these major league hitters respond. No setting up off the plate, no changing eye levels, none of that stuff. Just strikes every single time. I’m sure that pitcher will have tons of success against major league hitters.
There you go trying to change what I said!
Where did I say he should just throw strikes to EVERY HITTER pray tell?
All I said was if the guy at the plate hits 230 and has a .300+ OBP you don’t throw him balls you make his .230 BA get him on base! And in most cases it’s the .770 out percentage you get instead!
JUST AS you pitch a low ball hitter middle up in the zone or
JUST AS you pitch a pull hitter outside to avoid his strength!
JUST as you throw Junk Breaking balls to a good fastball Hitter!
It’s called player WEAKNESS and EVERY GOOD PITCHER in the MLB uses those weaknesses to exploit the batter they are pitching to at that moment in time!
Something I guess you just didn’t know about Pitching!
Which is why OBP fails as a judge of Hitting ability!
ONLY when accompanied by a good BA is OBP sustainable!
Because then the BA takes away the Pitchers advantage of throwing strikes!
Something lost on you apparently!
Thanks for proving my point. You just nailed what I’ve been trying to say. Pitch to weakness. Set them up, change eye levels, etc. You think strikes are a weakness to .230 hitters? Clearly you’ve never played an inning of ball in your life. Players hit .230 for lots of reasons, the least of which is that they can’t hit. If they couldn’t hit, you think they’d be major leaguers? Silly.
Maybe their plate discipline is poor and they expand the zone? Maybe they have bad platoon splits? Maybe, if we’re just taking one season out of context, he was unlucky? I don’t care how low a batting average is, if you just constantly throw strike after strike to major league hitters, you’re gonna get a severe case of whiplash very quickly.
When you hit .230 YES strikes are a weakness!
ANY pitch is a weakness!
And you have three balls you can throw once you got the first two strikes on him!
When a .230 Hitter is forced to put the ball in play he will make an out 77 Percent of the time!
Much better odds than 70% by throwing balls isn’t it?
There is no reason to be afraid of throwing strikes to a .230 Hitter!
“And you have three balls you can throw once you got the first two strikes on him!” Oh, so now we CAN throw pitches off the plate? Where will those goalposts move next?
You show a deep lack of understanding the mental aspect of the game.
Sure you can do lots of things…Just don’t walk him and your left wioth that .230!
I do have a deep understanding you don’t because you think OBP is a batter accomplisment but it can’t happen without the pitcher giving you that 4th ball!
That last sentence, where you basically said that OBP is all about walks, just proves your lack of understanding.
When you hit.230 it IS all about the walks!
Nearly a third of that OBP is walks!
nearly a third of PAs are OBs
What would his OBP be if he didn’t walk smart ass?
Huh?
It would be .230!
The OBP can be impressive while working against a hitter as well, neutralizing him in situations when a team is better off pitching around him with an open base than letting him swing away. There are some hitters who are pitched around much more often than another and while a single could drive in two runs while a walk only adds an extra base runner, BOTH hold the same weight in OBP yet could cost a team the game by taking the bat out of their top hitter’s hands.
So perhaps this stat should be viewed at in two ways: either the ability of one to get on base as much as possible (more vital for the top of the lineup) or how the hitter is bypassed (and thus respected as a batting threat).
“There are some hitters who are pitched around much more often than another ”
And that usually has to do with his BA or what he does with the bat to GET that BA!
A Low BA high HR hitter will have a higher OBP because of that!
No one is saying that ALL low BA High OBP players are bat hitters all I am saying is High OBP compared to LOW BA is not any indicator of how good the guy is with a bat in his hands!
the BA tells you HOW MUCH of that OB is actually because of his BAT and in BOTH stats you need to look at other things to determine if that LOW BA constitutes BETTER HITS with lesser frequency.
OBP doesn’t tell you anything about that and neither does BA!
But BA does tell you how much of his OBP is actually self created!
It’s really what else goes into that .230.
30 HR’s? 50 x base hits. Gold glove defense at SS.
.230 with no x base hits and rangeless D at a premium position is just not acceptable regardless of the OB.
Rey Ordonez on the other hand is well worth it.
It’s not so much the walks, it’s what else comes along with the package.
Well replace the BA with OBP and tell me really what is the difference?
OBP is no better at judging those things than BA is!
But at least the BA tells you what the guy actually accomplished without the help of the Pitcher and Defense!
OBP is not a BATTING statistic!
It’s a PA statistic!
It only judges how many positive things happen in a PA but it tells you NOTHING about how a guy hits!
the BA is purely about Hits what those were is covered by other things!
What those OBs were are covered by other things as well!
What you are using to malign BA maligns OBP just as EQUALLY!
The only difference is one is a PURE HITTING accomplishment and the other is accomplishments of the batter and FAILURES by the Pitching and Defense!
If someone gives you a Million dollars you can’t rreally say you EARNED that Million!
If a Pitcher or Defense gives you an OB you can’t really say if you EARNED it or not!
But if a guy hit .300 you know he EARNED those hits by doing something!
And that is the point you OBP guys will never get and is why we will argue forever due to your stubborness in attributing success to a player who did not CAUSE that success but got credit for doing so anyway because of the way OBP works!
OBP penalizes those who drive in runs with a sacrifice or moves runners over!
BA does not penalize a player who makes those contributions.
OBP gives credit for INTENTIONAL and UNINTENTIONAL walks which are GIVEN to the batter by the Pitcher!
It is not a good metric to judge a HITTER or even a BATTER because it gives credit where it may not be due because the player who got the credit did nothing towards making it happen!
In fact his biggest accomplishment in the whole thing is he DID NOTHING!
And took a bad pitch the pitcher GAVE HIM!
Ok one more Metsie. I just couldn’t resist. I think if everyone just ignored you on here we wouldn’t have to hear most of this ignorance and stupidity that comes out of your mouth on a daily basis.
“High OBP is useless with a low BA!”
this comment really just shows how little you actually know about the game.
1) well, no, because high OBP is never useless. the more you’re on base, the more you are able to score. unless like X said you have nothing else to bring to the table.
2) You can’t even have a high OBP without a decent batting average. now before you get all Metsie and start looking up players with high OBP and low BA, I mean USUALLY. more often than not. actually way more often than not. If you have a high OBP, you PROBABLY are a decent hitter and have a decent BA. that you can quote me on.
what is considered a “high” OBP, Metsie? .350? average in the majors is prob between .320-.330. .330-.350 can be considered above average, and I’d say anything over .350 we can say is “high” in the major leagues. hopefully we can at least agree on that.
Of all the players with OBP of at least .350 this past season (55), SEVEN players had a batting average less than .260. that’s 12%. Their names: Kevin Youkilis, Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Santana, Bobby Abreu.
What do all these players have in common Metsie? stay with me now. they all have astronomically high walk rates. WELL above average. Kinsler had the lowest of all those names and only seven other players not listed in those names had higher walk rates.
Therefore, if you have a “high” OBP you are probably a .270-280 hitter, at LEAST. and if you aren’t, you are prob a pretty good player anyway. any BAD players on that list Metsie?
Now enough with this. Every time you argue about this you make yourslef sound dumber and dumber. and again, really shows how absolutely little you know about this game.
Chris, I couldn’t find anywhere that gave the 10 M dollar figure for the Met draft last year. All I found was your figure, 6.4. Guess I had it wrong, still I know that was only good for 21st and while it was nice to see a buck spent there finally it would really have made a lot more sense to have been doing it all along.
Anyway thanks for the correction.
yeah I believe they only count the first ten rounds, and anything over slot in any round after that. for instance, of the record 650K bonus that Evans got in the 15th, only the money that was over slot for that round actually counts for the total.
And if evone ignored you around here you would have to go back to sucking your thumb and teasing girls in kindergarten to get your kicks!
USELESS AS FAR AS JUDGING A HITTER!
GET IT?
Not all OBs are HITS!
GET IT?
Not all OBs are a product of the batters skill
GET IT?
No go back to your fingerpainting homework for school or you might fail kindergarten and that would be a shame because I refuse to pay taxes to support idiots like you once your parents kick you out for being a total failure!
LOL. another classic Metsie come-back that is to be expected when there is literally nothing factual that you can rebut with.
you lower the average IQ of Met fans way too much dude. Just switch over to the bronx. I mean you do only care about attendance and stars.
Too bad for you that my post was fact filled and your had NO FACT whatsoever!
But you go right on believing all your fantasy stories that you post here!
Bet you believe in Sant as well!
ROFLMAO!
stay hot…
Stay Stupid!
So you at least can tout CONSISTENCY as one of your attributes!
I’d like to see Lagares get some games at SS, 2B and 3B as well so if his bat doesn’t live up to corner OF he still has a shot elsewhere, or more likely as a super sub capable of playing 5 or 6 positions for you.
Wheeler, Fulmer Nimmo are three exciting young talents and it would really accelerate the whole rebuild if we added a couple high end IFA’s to their draft class as well.
The combination of the two things, not just one or the other.
To all,
Have a happy and safe New Year and may our “Prospects” be better and fulfill their promise.
And Lets Go Mets!!
I think sabremetrics can provide the information one seeks much quicker, just like a computer, but doesn’t provide any new insight to baseball insiders and it’s value has become over-exaggerated by those who like to take computer analysis and measurements to it’s infinite level for in reality sabremetrics provides probably the most useless pieces of baseball information there could be. It actually trivializes the performance of a player beyond what is necessary to know.
It didn’t take a mathematics genius to figure out that Oakland could afford to lose Jason Giambi, etc. after the 2001 season for their strength was in their pitching and as long as they could get a decent player to replace him at first it wouldn’t matter if Oakland’s run production went down because they would still outscore opponents by a large margin. Nor did we need computer analysis to tell Billy Beane the advantages of playing in such a pitcher’s park with it’s immense amount of foul territory.
Bill James projected Jason Bay would not have the season he had in 2009 but would still produce decent numbers when coming over to the Mets. I saw it otherwise and a disaster in the making. We knew how Citi Field’s distances and walls adversely affected David Wright and Carlos Beltran, messing up their swings and mindset, something no statistician can calculate happening while the human mind is quite capable of doing so. Because computer analysis showed most of Bay’s home runs were pulled down the line in Fenway, it was assumed that he would do the same at Citi – didn’t those advocates of sabremetrics take into account how differently he would be pitched to unlike in Fenway and thus he would not be getting the same pitches to hit?
This spring Ralph Kiner said there was still something wrong with Bay’s swing that was going to prevent him from lifting the ball for power. Of course, that swing was adjusted to compensate for Citi Field. Leave it to a Hall of Famer in his late eighties to accurately surmise the problem.
Stats could be so misleading because they don’t really represent what a player does on a day to day basis. For example, the difference between a .300 and .250 hitter with 500 at bats is just 25 hits. That means one additional hit every 20 at bats, not a major appreciable difference during the day to day grind of a 162 game season. Baseball insiders knew this all along and placed the value of the hitter on when he got those hits. Mickey Mantle in his prime had great OPS and yet with all the great numbers he put up, with a runner on third and one out, there were more players of lesser talent who had better chances of getting that runner in than the Mick due to all his strikeouts. Also, many a decent hitter took the job away from a better hitter due to his glove, as we see could be the case with Daniel Murphy.
Nor can assigning monetary values based on computer analysis put together a good team for this is major league and not fantasy baseball. When Sandy Alderson and Billy Beane were forced to really delve into “money ball” after losing their star players in combined more than a decade of seasons Oakland was only able to produce one team that played .500.
There is the human element that can’t be measured with a pen, paper and a calculator. These new stats can help but their importance, IMHO, is over-exaggerated in lieu of a good baseball insider.
Right on. Good post. You’re in deep trouble if you only utilize one method of player evaluation.
Bay hit a lot better at home the last two years than on the road and if he had changed his swing, to be more line drive oriented than he was adapting to his environment and that should have played well else where too.
Fact is he’s been an average hitter at home and below average for LF and below average for all positions on the road.
Having Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkalis, Lowell, Victor Martinez, Drew, Ellsbury and Beltre in the same lineup and hitting in a small park got him a lot of good pitches to hit.
This is to Metsie since I cant reply up on the comment. If people are giving Fullmer and Nimmo savior tags, then yes I would take issue as well. Those 2 just got here, they havent proven anything in the small sample size of playing time they have. Now when we talk about the other guys that have at least a bigger track record( Gen K2 as you call them) then I can see people calling them “saviors”. I dont agree, but if 2-3 out them make it then we have a cheap and(hopefully) stable rotation for 5-6 years. That will in turn free up money to go after higher profile FA’s if needed. The more the Mets stockpile high upside prospects, the less need there is to go after players like Bay and over pay.
I think it’s unfair to give Nimmo a savior billing already.. Don’t push him too hard. And with what Harvey and Familia have proven in the minors is that they can pitch and should be hyped. Now it’s Wheeler’s turn in 2012.
Good stuff, but ya, you really don’t weigh stats on minor leaguers the way you do fully developed major leaguers. It is more about monitoring progress than flat out production.
Good to see we’ve got something to look forward to in the near future.
Isn’t Lagares an outfielder or is this a different Lagares?
He just got switched. He came in as a SS but has played OF for the last 2 years.
OBP Certainly IS a BATTER DRIVEN Stat! Obviously, some pitchers are crappy and find ways to walk bad hitters—even opposing bad hitting Pitchers!…but most guys who have high Spreads of OBP versus BA do so because of their approach and skill.
There are some instances where a player is locked in on taking pitches and working walks when he should be MORE aggressive(to drive in Runs), but the One Base ABILITY is all about taking pitches and situational approaches. Lineups that emphasis the approach KILL opposing starters by driving them out of games with pitch counts…OOPS–another point of argument…Pitch Counts
believe me that is what we’ve been trying to get through Metsie’s head for a long long time. Pitchers can always throw three strikes before they throw four balls no matter what. Why throw a ball to a .230 hitter? just throw him a strike and let him ground out. No pitcher has ever walked, you didn’t know that? why walk him when you can just throw him strikes. Baseball is that easy.
Metsie lives in another world.
“No pitcher has ever walked, you didn’t know that? why walk him when you can just throw him strikes. Baseball is that easy.”
Obviously you never saw Oliver Perez facing a pitcher with the bases loaded and two out.
Once someone says “baseball is that easy” 1) you know they’re a saber goon 2) they don’t know a damned thing about the game – but they know how to add up numbers and think if you get all the right guys with the right numbers it adds up to a winning team.
If you can’t hit, you can’t play so all this OBP is a waste of time – just leave that to the batting coaches and you’ll save everybody tons of keystrokes. Of course there are all kinds of tangibles to building a team and no set number (unless it’s 40 HRs, 120 RBIs) is the right kind of stats for any team. They all need something different.
Oh and if you have a good eye than most likely you ALWAYS had a good eye, even as a kid playing ball. But now everybody claims to be a coach. Even the indian guy at the deli store can say “yes, yes, plate discipline, yes, yes) Doesn’t mean he knows one damned thing about the game.
Then you have someone like Ruben Tejada who is a very intelligent player and worked well with the new hitting coach (who we always said we needed anyway) and improved his hitting and changed his approach. But most sluggers who have a good eye always had one.
Oh and that ridiculous, STUPID comment “baseball is that easy” is typical of the trivialization of performance that saber has led to. If I’m a good hitter i’m PROUD of my batting AVG, if i’m a power hitter I’m PROUD of the number of HRs or Doubles and RBI’s I drive in, If’ I’m a Jose Reyes type hitter i’m PROUD of the number of triples i hit and I want people to know those numbers.
Saber just throws all of it into garbled stats and trivializes it all. Disgraceful.
LOL are you guys being serious right now? apparently you guys don’t pick up on sarcasm too well. maybe you should go back and read Metsie’s comments. Those are all things METSIE basically said. I was simply making fun of him for it. It’s funny Bayonne up to this point you’ve basically agreed with everything he said regarding the issue. But when I say it now it’s absolutely ridiculous.
thank you for finally seeing how ridiculous Metsie actually is.
you think anything in that comment is something I would actually say? LOLOL
yes, and don’t put words in my mouth. I don’t do that to anybody but it always seems like the saber goons are the ones that put words in people’s mouths.
and my lack of a response to your impending followup isn’t due to “you got me” cuz I’ve seen some of you goons think that a lack of a response means you’ve won something. It’s just 9pm and time “to dance” so i have to go.
Happy New Year to Maniac, Vinny B, Omar, Alex, Shamsky, 224, Joe D., Kelly, Delcos, oldtimer, baby al, lifelong and the few others I don’t mind debating
As past history shows, reliance of sabremetrics has not built winning teams but rather losing ones.
The premise of Billy Beane being aided so much by a computer analyst in “Money Ball” is way over exaggerated. As mentioned before, Oakland could afford to lose their top hitters because they still had the best pitching in the league and other returning good hitters as well. They didn’t need to have a new first basement produce Giambi type numbers but rather be able to hold his own for what was expected by first basemen. The same with the outfielder (name escapes me for a moment but I think it was Frank Thomas). Thanks to their overpowering pitching and defense they still outscored opponents by one of the biggest margins in the league despite a drop in run production.
One thing, however, if Billy Beane did need the aid of a computer analyst after 2000, it is more a reflection of how poor a general manager he is and his reputation far exceeds his actual talent.