MLB Network
The MLB Network started their Top Ten Right Now series last weekend, kicking it off with their second and third base rankings. Two of the new Mets acquisitions were ranked in the top five second baseman with Jed Lowrie and Robinson Cano both making the list. This weekend, the show will tackle right fielders where the Mets should have another representative cracking the top ten.
Right field features some star-studded players with former MVP and current Mets fans’ heartthrob free agent, Bryce Harper, both 2018 MVPs Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts, and last year’s AL Rookie of The Year and MVP runner up, Aaron Judge. Most will have these four at the top of their rankings for the position (the typical order has been Betts, Judge, Harper and then Yelich). That’s where the debate starts for who the remaining six on the list will be.
Brandon Nimmo should make his debut on the top ten list when The Shredder spits out its rankings this Saturday. The question isn’t necessarily if, but where on the list Nimmo will fall. Some of the baseball analysts on MLB Network were discussing their choices considering this weekend’s show. Nimmo failed to crack any of the analysts top five, even though he ended 2018 with the third highest wOBA, second highest OBP, fourth highest fWAR and third highest wRC+ amongst right fielders—even Ron Darling failed to have Nimmo in his top five which could be concerning considering how much he saw Nimmo play last year.
So where will The Shredder slot Nimmo?
Most likely, Nimmo will be ranked around seventh. Some of the stats and rankings I listed above may seem to support that Nimmo should be ranked higher, maybe even top five, but there were some things to take into consideration that may cause him to drop to the back end of the top ten.
Nimmo’s R/L splits are a concern. In order to be considered a top player at your position, there should be some consistency in your splits—they don’t have to be 50/50, but they shouldn’t be lopsided either. Nimmo did most of his damage at the plate last year facing right-handed pitching—74% of his hits, 82% of his homers, 79% of his runs scored and 85% of his walks came against righties. Here’s a snapshot of some of his advanced stats which also highlight the discrepancy in the splits:
Fangraphs
After seeing some of these numbers as a manager, I would be hesitant to play Nimmo against left-handed pitchers—it was like two different players wearing that number nine jersey. If a manager is worried about playing you in certain situations, then you can’t be considered one of the best at your position.
Another red flag with Nimmo was his expected stats in 2018. Nimmo’s xwOBA was ranked 11 amongst right fielders and had the biggest differential by almost double that of the next nearest player. His expected slugging (xSLG) was 99 basis points lower than his standard slugging (SLG) at .384, making him the only player ranked in the top 15 for xwOBA to have an xSLG lower than .400.
MLB Statcast
The Shredder will take all that data into consideration while ranking the top ten right fielders, which is why I see Nimmo towards the bottom portion of the list. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Shredder has Mitch Haniger, Stephen Piscotty, Nick Castellanos, and maybe even Andrew McCutchen (another MVP winner), ranked higher.
Right field is stacked and only getting stronger with the emergence of guys like Castellanos, Piscotty, Haniger, and Nimmo to add to the already established stars playing the position. If Nimmo can sure up his splits and repeat his 2018 performance, he may be able to crack the top five in the future. But for now, Nimmo should have a spot cemented in the top ten, which isn’t too shabby for a guy who didn’t have a much of a role when the 2018 campaign began.
