Why Tong, McLean Have Passed Sproat in Prospect Rankings

Brandon Sproat is currently the Mets’ top pitching prospect on MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic, SNY and here at MMO.

It makes sense. Sproat, a second-round pick in 2023 whom the Mets wanted so badly they drafted him twice, burst onto the scene last season after dominating hitters at both High-A and Double-A. While he struggled once he made it to Triple-A, it was largely excused as him running out of gas. It was his third level in his first full season of pro ball, struggles were understandable.

In 2025, those struggles have continued. In his first nine starts at Triple-A this year (does not include his 5/25 start), Sproat posted a 6.69 ERA in 36 and 1/3 innings. So, what’s wrong?

The most concerning this is his strikeout rate, which was over 30% at both High-A and Double-A last season. This year, it has fallen to 16.9%, which is about in line with what it was at Triple-A last season. It’s the fourth-lowest strikeout rate among all International League pitchers with at least 30 innings.

His fastball is unremarkable. It’s not bad, and it’s hard, but it’s also nothing special. His sinker is much stronger, and it’s reflected in the results. Hitters are chasing his sinker at a 39.7% clip vs 25.3% on the four-seam fastball. The whiff rate is actually lower, but the quality of contact is much, much worse on the sinker. Hitters have posted .193 xwOBA vs the sinker and .297 xwOBA vs the four-seam. Both are good, but one clearly superior.

As for the secondary stuff, the results have been ugly. Not including his curveball, which he’s thrown just 10 total times, the lowest xwOBA on one of his breaking balls is his slider … at .444. His changeup has surrendered a xwOBA of .474, and his sweeper one of .527. Hitters aren’t chasing his breaking stuff, not swinging and missing much, and hammering it when they do make contact.

It’s hardly time to panic—nine starts isn’t much of a sample size, but it’s reason to raise an eyebrow. Many expected Sproat to make his MLB debut at some point this season. Instead, when the Mets have needed spot starters or long relievers, they’ve called on journeyman Brandon Waddell, career minor leaguer Justin Hagenman, and pitching prospect Blade Tidwell, who is having a much better season than Sproat is at Triple-A.

If Sproat doesn’t turn it around, he could be passed by another pair of Mets pitching prospects who are having stellar seasons: Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. And, at least when it comes to prospect ranks, that process has already started.

Tong Is Moving Up Rankings

This past week, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel updated his top-50 MLB prospects list. Sproat, who last fell at No. 62 in his previous top-100 list, understandably didn’t move into his top-50—but Tong did. Now ranked at No. 50 on ESPN, Tong has jumped Sproat in at least one of the three publications used for the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive system.

Tong’s best pitch is his fastball. When he was in Single-A in 2024—the last time there was publicly available data on his pitches—he averaged 20.6 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). IVB measures how much a fastball “breaks upward,” or how much it almost fights the effects of gravity. If the ball drops less than hitters expect, it leads to more swings and misses. When people say things about a fastball that “has a lot of life” or “ride,” even if it doesn’t have outstanding velocity, that fastball probably gets a lot of IVB.

Baseball America considers four-seam fastballs with 18 inches of IVB or more as good, and 20 inches of IVB or more as elite. For reference, Sproat’s four-seam fastball this year averages 13.4 inches of IVB, part of what makes it unremarkable despite its high velocity.

Tong was in the elite threshold last year. He’s at Double-A right now and has been so all year, so there’s no publicly available data on his pitches from 2025, but a Baseball America story from this week provides a snapshot. The story is about Tong’s new changeup, which he improved this offseason by switching to a Vulcan grip. The new changeup plays better off his fastball, which is still averaging a great 19.1 inches of IVB. His whiff rate on his changeup is way, way up, and also notably, his velocity on his fastball is up significantly.

In 2024, Tong’s fastball averaged 92.7 mph. This year, it’s up to 94.5 mph. It was already a great pitch, and now he’s throwing it almost two full mph faster on average? It might be one of the best heaters in the game.

Tong also throws a 12-6 curveball that has always been a plus pitch, and a slider that is still a relatively new pitch for him but is improving. His fastball is the star, but he has a legitimately well-rounded arsenal with multiple weapons.

In eight starts, Tong has posted a 2.37 ERA in 38 innings. He’s struck out a staggering 65 batters, easily boasting the highest strikeout percentage (42.2%) of any Double-A pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched. If he has one issue, it’s walks, having issued 20 free passes in his 38 innings. His walk rate was already less than ideal last season at 10%, and it’s jumped to 13% this season. It’s high and needs to come down, but it’s not overly concerning at this point.

A 6-foot-1, lanky right-hander with a Tim Lincecum-esque funky throwing motion, Tong is on the verge of breaking out as a prospect. You can argue he already has.

McLean Is Blossoming, Too

Also breaking out is McLean. “Cowboy Ohtani” is no longer a hitter, so that nickname no longer fits, but McLean has absolutely taken off in his first season where he has been exclusively focusing on pitching.

He dominated Double-A, posting a 1.37 ERA in 26 and 1/3 innings in his first five starts, almost forcing himself into the Triple-A rotation. He hasn’t slowed down, putting up a 2.00 ERA in his first three starts with Syracuse.

Keith Law of The Athletic wrote this offseason about McLean, placing him No. 4 on his Mets top-20 prospects list. Law said, “It’s No. 1 starter stuff, but the results have been more fourth-starterish.” In 2025, the results have reflected the stuff.

McLean’s best pitch is his high-spin-rate sweeper, and it’s filthy. It has great movement with some of the highest velocity on a sweeper across baseball, and Triple-A hitters have been absolutely baffled by it. It’s a small sample size, as he’s only been up at Triple-A for a few weeks, but hitters are chasing it 48.3% of the time, whiffing at it 34.3% of the time, and not making good contact when they do connect.

He throws a mid-90s four-seamer, a sinker and a cutter, and they’re all solid pitches. He’s not an IVB beast like Tong—his metrics are more similar to Sproat’s—but he throws his sinker and cutter about an equal amount of the time to the four-seam. The sinker has gotten a ton of chase and swing and miss, while the cutter has actually been his best-performing pitch in terms of xwOBA allowed through his first three starts in Triple-A. He also has a changeup that is a very clear fifth pitch, but it has some promise.

Initially, there was some thought that McLean could end up in the bullpen. His sweeper has been MLB-ready since he was still hitting. The question was the rest of his arsenal, and if it would improve fast enough to stay a starter versus taking that deadly sweeper right to Queens. As it looks right now, he has a great chance to stick in the rotation.

Similar to Tong, if he has one knock to him, it’s walks. It was already a little high last year at 9.1% and it’s climbed to 11% this year. Sproat has the same issue, climbing from 9.1% to 10.6%, but he hasn’t gotten the swing and miss that Tong and McLean have gotten.

McLean’s potential is very, very real. Even while ranking Tong ahead of him in his updated top-50, McDaniel said McLean has the most upside if his command can take a step forward. He’s also already in Triple-A, so at this point, there’s no reason why he can’t be the first of the trio to make his MLB debut.

Is this a bit reactionary? Maybe. But it’s less of a comment on Sproat and more of a comment on how good McLean and Tong could be. They’re legit, and on the cusp of being household names. Don’t be surprised to see both of them on the midseason top-100 prospects lists, and quite possibly ahead of Sproat.