Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Do you know what’s crazy? The fact that the New York Mets’ bullpen is currently living up to those lofty preseason expectations. Sure, the 2021 regular season is barely one-and-a-half months old, but we need to take wins where we can get them after how inconsistent this group has been over the years.

After Sunday’s win to complete a sweep against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets’ bullpen has produced a cumulative fWAR of 2.1 and an ERA of 3.04. Those numbers rank second and fifth in baseball, respectively.

There have been a number of contributors to this production thus far, but one that’s been overdue is old friend, Jeurys Familia.

Following a stellar five-out appearance Saturday night, Familia is the proud owner of a 0.93 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate through 9.2 innings. In his first two seasons back in Queens, his performance was worth -0.3 fWAR. So far this year, though, he’s been worth 0.2 fWAR.

He’s quite literally on fire right now, and the Mets’ bullpen is benefiting greatly from it.

The Difference From Recent Years

Familia’s return to the Mets as a free agent on a three-year deal prior to 2019 was supposed to solidify the back of the bullpen with newly acquired Edwin Diaz. We obviously know neither of them accomplished such a thing, and it was a rough campaign for Familia.

Not only was his four-seam fastball velocity at a career-low 96.0 mph, but he also accompanied it with a less-than-stellar 7.7% strikeout-to-walk rate (thanks to a 15.3% walk rate) and a career-worst 5.70 ERA.

The shortened season in 2020 was much better on the surface because of a 3.71 ERA, but he paired it with an even worse 3.3% strikeout-to-walk rate (thanks to a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 15.8% walk rate). After posting a 5.05 Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2018, that number got even worse last year (5.28).

Through this year’s small sample, though? His current SIERA is still quite a bit higher than his actual ERA, but it’s a much more respectable 3.33. Even though 2020 still wasn’t a great year for the right-hander, there were some improvements he made that have continued so far in 2021.

His Control Is…Under Control Again

While it was great to see Familia getting the traditional results in the ERA department last year, this was my biggest problem with his performance. Not only was his lack of control still a problem but there were also some metrics showing it was worse than the year prior.

Since he may not have the same type of swing-and-miss results we witnessed during 2015 and 2016, his ultimate success relies upon the control of his pitches. Thankfully, he’s gotten a feel for it again.

If the season finished today, his current 9.1% walk rate would be his lowest since 2015 (6.2%). Additionally, his 33.0% chase rate is the lowest it’s been since 2017 (26.1%), while his 57.0% swing rate on strikes has never been that low over a full season.

Something he’s continued from 2020 is getting first-pitch strikes. That number is currently sitting at 61.4% (it was 62.5% in ’20). What he’s added to that is throwing pitches in the strike zone more often, as his zone rate has gone from 40.2% last year to its current 46.5% mark.

It’s also interesting to note Familia’s fastball usage (sinker and four-seamer) is at 72.4%, a level it hasn’t been approached since 2016. Opposing hitters’ wRC+ against his four-seamer over the last three seasons have looked like this: 234, 59, -35.

This increased usage has likely also allowed his slider to be more effective when thrown, evidenced by a -99 wRC+ and a 40.0% strikeout rate. We haven’t seen those numbers get produced by this offering in a while.

Back to His Roots on the Ground

If you take a quick glance at some of Familia’s Statcast numbers, two things will immediately jump out since he returned to New York: decreasing exit velocity, along with the decreasing launch angle from opposing hitters.

Since 2019, the average exit velocity against the right-hander has gone from 87.5 to 85.0 to its current level of 83.0 mph. The story is similar for launch angle, as it’s gone from 9.0 to 3.4 to -4.1 degrees. Getting ground balls at a high clip is a throwback to the earlier days of his career:

https://twitter.com/MetsMetrics/status/1391201444385247232?s=21

Accounting for Saturday’s appearance, his current ground-ball rate is an even 60.0% — the exact same percentage he finished the 2020 season with for that statistic. It’s also helpful to be generating a 40.0% soft-hit rate and a 20.0% hard-hit rate through his 9.2 impressive innings thus far, to top things off.

Add in an 86.7% strand rate that hasn’t been this high since 2015 (89.4%) and it’d be shocking if he wasn’t experiencing the kind of success he’s been having.

Even with the upgrades made to the bullpen over the winter, it was crucial for guys like Diaz and Familia to carry their weight because they’d be used often in high-leverage situations. Their importance only shot up once Seth Lugo got hurt during the spring.

Thankfully, they’ve both been up to the task, and Familia is looking like the guy New York was hoping it had signed three offseasons ago.