As many of you know by now, the starting lineup in the Midsummer Classic is merely a popularity contest. Inspired fans can vote several times for their favorite players resulting in some very questionable decisions.
As Mets fans, I think we all remember 2013 when San Francisco Giants fans stuffed the ballots pushing Pablo Sandoval ahead of our beloved David Wright. It was clear that Wright deserved to start; he was sporting a 1.013 OPS when the votes were counted compared to Sandoval’s .848 OPS.
Based on merit, this was a clear mistake by the fans. However, the blame for All-Star snubs should not always the fall on the voting system; the reserves, selected by the players and Major League Baseball as a whole, also host their own assortment of snubs.
Just this year, we saw the system being called out by Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher, Chris Archer. He called out the players for the commission of his teammate, Blake Snell, who did not crack the AL squad when it was clearly deserved. Snell ultimately got on due to other players not being able to participate, but the frustration is still warranted.
Today, we are going to compare the stat-lines of the All-Stars that are on the roster compared to the players that deserve to be on the roster.
Starting Lineup:
Catcher:
All-Star Starter: Willson Contreras (Chicago Cubs)
| 341 PA | 7 HR | 33 R | 34 RBI | 3 SB |
| .279 BA | .369 OBP | .449 SLG | .355 wOBA | 122 wRC+ |
Deserving Starter: J.T. Realmuto (Miami Marlins)
| 303 PA | 12 HR | 46 R | 45 RBI | 1 SB |
| .310 BA | .365 OBP | .536 SLG | .385 wOBA | 145 wRC+ |
Based on purely the offensive numbers, Realmuto is a clear choice. Both players have similar on-base skills but Realmuto significantly outflanks Contreras in the power department. With more home runs in fewer plate appearances, Realmuto has an SLG percentage that is almost .100 higher than Contreras. Both players contribute positively on the defensive end, but the edge here should definitely be given to Realmuto.
First Base:
All-Start Starter: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)
| 420 PA | 16 HR | 59 R | 61 RBI | 6 SB |
| .315 BA | .405 OBP | .533 SLG | .396 wOBA | 150 wRC+ |
Deserving Starter: Max Muncy (Los Angeles Dodgers)
| 279 PA | 22 HR | 44 R | 41 RBI | 2 SB |
| .271 BA | .409 OBP | .604 SLG | .422 wOBA | 171 wRC+ |
First Base in the National League is an extremely potent position. There are four players who in any given year could have deserved a starting spot including Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt (who is the DH in tonight’s game), Muncy and Jesus Aguilar, but I am going to give the edge to Muncy and his league-leading 171 wRC+.
In Muncy, the Dodgers have somehow created another star from seemingly nothing; Muncy has a great eye at the plate and an eye-popping .604 SLG percentage. His only shortcoming is that he has significantly fewer plate appearances than Freeman, but due to his significantly better production, I gave him the edge.
Second Base:
All-Star Starter: Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
| 365 PA | 19 HR | 61 R | 72 RBI | 18 SB |
| .292 BA | .326 OBP | .566 SLG | .370 wOBA | 132 wRC+ |
Deserving Starter: Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
Baez marks the first time that the fans were actually right, but it was not as clear as it seemed. Baez’s best competition came in the form of Reds second basemen, Scooter Gennett. Scooter sports a significantly higher OBP than Baez, but slightly less power. Based on offensive numbers alone, I wanted to give the spot to Gennett, but that would discount much of Baez’s game. Baez is an elite defender and baserunner. He has even stolen home multiple times this season! His impact as a player goes way beyond his offensive numbers and I think he is deserving of the starting role.
Scooter Gennett (for reference):
| 389 PA | 16 HR | 59 R | 63 RBI | 2 SB |
| .326 BA | .373 OBP | .521 SLG | .380 wOBA | 138 wRC+ |
Third Base:
All-Star Starter: Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
| 395 PA | 23 HR | 63 R | 68 RBI | 2 SB |
| .312 BA | .395 OBP | .586 SLG | .412 wOBA | 145 wRC+ |
Deserving Starter: Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
For third base, Nolan Arenado earned his bid for starting 3B with his second straight starting appearance and fourth straight appearance overall.
He deserves to be our starter but not by a huge margin. Eugenio Suarez of the Cincinnati Reds makes a good case. He has actually outhit Arenado across the board with a slightly higher OBP and SLG. This is similar to Gennett and Baez where the challenger has better offensive numbers, but the incumbent deserves to remain at the top due to being a more complete player.
Oddly enough, both players have logged a 0 DRS, but Arenado has a 4.0 UZR/150 in comparison to a -5.1 for Suarez. For me, this defensive boost gives Arenado the slight edge over Suarez.
Eugenio Suarez (For reference):
| 348 PA | 19 HR | 50 R | 71 RBI | 1 SB |
| .312 BA | .399 OBP | .574 SLG | .409 wOBA | 158 wRC+ |
Shortstop:
All-Star Starter: Brandon Crawford (San Francisco Giants)
| 372 PA | 10 HR | 42 R | 39 RBI | 3 SB |
| .292 BA | .363 OBP | .462 SLG | .347 wOBA | 121 wRC+ |
Deserving Starter: Brandon Crawford (San Francisco Giants)
Known as more of a defensive specialist, Brandon Crawford has awakened offensively in 2018 posting a career-best 121 wRC+. His best competition is found in Colorado with Rockies shortstop, Trevor Story. Story hits for significantly more power but is slightly worse in the on-base category. The edge here goes to Crawford for defense. We all know shortstop is a premium defensive position, and Crawford leads Story 6 to 1 in the competition for DRS. This outweighs the power deficit and propels Crawford to the starting position.
Trevor Story (For Reference):
| 405 PA | 20 HR | 50 R | 68 RBI | 12 SB |
| .292 BA | .353 OBP | .557 SLG | .384 wOBA | 127 wRC+ |
Outfield:
All-Star Starters:
1. Matt Kemp (Los Angeles Dodgers)
| 324 PA | 15 HR | 42 R | 60 RBI | 0 SB |
| .310 BA | .352 OBP | .522 SLG | .370 wOBA | 137 wRC+ |
2. Nick Markakis (Atlanta Braves)
| 419 PA | 10 HR | 55 R | 61 RBI | 1 SB |
| .323 BA | .389 OBP | .488 SLG | .373 wOBA | 135 wRC+ |
3. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)
| 414 PA | 23 HR | 57 R | 54 RBI | 6 SB |
| .214 BA | .365 OBP | .468 SLG | .351 wOBA | 119 wRC+ |
Deserving Starters:
1. Brandon Nimmo (New York Mets)
| 311 PA | 13 HR | 48 R | 30 RBI | 7 SB |
| .253 BA | .373 OBP | .490 SLG | .373 wOBA | 139 wRC+ |
2. Matt Kemp (Los Angeles Dodgers)
3. Nick Markakis (Atlanta Braves)
Our only major change in the outfield comes from our guy, Brandon Nimmo. In everything except counting stats, Nimmo holds the edge. He leads all National League outfielders with a 139 wRC+. Both his OBP and even his SLG outrank Harper. Harper has also had a horrible year defensively with a -12 DRS across the outfield. Nimmo has not been great himself, but he has outdone Harper with -3 DRS. I believe Brandon has a strong argument for starting OF and definitely a spot on the team.
Kemp and Markakis both have produced extremely strongly this year. The only other players really in contention are the Nats’ Matt Adams and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain.
Conclusion:
The fans did a decent job in the National League voting this year. Based on my judgments, I think they picked 5 of 9 spots correctly. What do you think? Who deserves to be in the starting lineup? Leave your best comments below.
