The Debate Between Jacob DeGrom And Justin Verlander

This is yet another massive off-season for the New York Mets and one of their biggest decisions will be whether or not their star pitcher, Jacob deGrom remains with the team. If they don’t bring back their longtime ace, then reports suggest three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander could be the preferred replacement.

It is a choice that could have significant implications way down the line for this organization. So, between two multi-Cy Young award winners, who would be the better option?

Jacob deGrom

We’ll start with a player that needs no introduction to Mets’ fans. Drafted by the organization in 2010, deGrom has been a consistent fixture on the mound at Citi Field ever since and his legend within the baseball world has only grown and grown since then.

Since making his major league debut in 2014, deGrom has established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. However, the righty has had to carry this Mets team on his large shoulders and he has been robbed of the chance to showcase his talents on the biggest stage on a regular basis.

However, that could change with owner Steve Cohen now in town and his determination to turn the Mets into a perennial contender. And, if ownership and the front office are serious about contending for a championship year in and year out, then re-signing deGrom should be a priority and there is strong evidence to suggest he would be the better signing.

For starters, the Mets know what they have with deGrom and what they have is one of the best arms in the majors and a pitcher who has only gotten better with age. He won back-to-back Cy Young awards thanks to dominant seasons in both 2018 and 2019, including pitching to a stellar 1.70 ERA with a career-high 269 strikeouts. The ace also finished third in Cy Young voting during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season after posting a 2.38 ERA in 12 starts, to go along with 104 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 68 innings.

It looked as though a third Cy Young Award was an almost certainty after deGrom carved out a historic start to the 2021 season, pitching to an incredible 1.08 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 15 starts. The four-time All-Star was on his way to true greatness before the baseball gods delivered two cruel twists of fate, sidelining deGrom for the rest of the year with an elbow injury. Then, after looking like his dominant self in spring training, deGrom was placed on the injured list for the start of the 2022 season with a stress reaction in his right scapula.

After a lengthy wait, deGrom finally made his season debut on August 2 against the Nationals, and he didn’t disappoint. In six starts, he recorded a 1.98 ERA, struck out 13.7 batters per nine, and held batters to a slash line against of .136/.156/.232. Of course, having been on the shelf for so long, a drop-off should have been expected and deGrom recorded a 6.00 ERA and gave up six home runs in his final four starts. Redemption did come in October as the longtime Met struck out eight Padres and allowed just two earned runs to force a Game 3 in the NL Wild Card series.

What the small sample size in 2022 did prove was that deGrom should be back to his dominant self in 2023 as long as he can now remain healthy. Although he finished last year with a 3.08 ERA and a concerning 1.3 HR/9, the ace also struck out 42.7% of the batters he faced in 2022 and he averaged an impressive 14.3 SO/9. Plus, deGrom’s filthy slider was exactly that in 2022 with a dominant 53.8% whiff rate, and all four of his primary pitches were working to a high level.

At 34-years-old, deGrom is younger than the man we will examine next and he was on pace to put together one of the most dominant seasons ever seen by a pitcher before injury struck in 2021. That isn’t that long ago and we saw in tantalizing glimpses last season that that level of dominance is still very much there. Again, if deGrom can put his recent injury woes behind him and remain healthy, then it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he goes out and puts together a Cy Young caliber season in 2023. Plus, you can’t put a price on how much deGrom means to this organization, and he still has all the skills and the intangibles to be able to lead this team to a World Series. And maybe multiple championships given time is on his side.

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander’s resume speaks for itself. It is sparkling and is as decorated a resume as you could possibly wish for. Verlander has been there, done it, and he’s got a lot of hardware to show for his considerable efforts over what will be a Hall of Fame career when all is said and done. Drafted by the Detroit Tigers in 2004, Verlander posted a 3.49 ERA over a decorated career in the Motor City, in which he won Rookie of the Year, the American League MVP, the Cy Young, the Triple Crown of pitching, and three strikeout titles. Oh, he also made six All-Star Games while with the Tigers and tossed two no-hitters.

Not many players achieve greatness in one place, let alone two, but that’s exactly what Verlander did after being dealt to the Houston Astros in a blockbuster trade back in 2017. Five years later and the future Hall of Famer has made three more All-Star appearances, pitched another no-hitter in 2019, won two more Cy Young Awards and, to top it all off, he now has two World Series titles to his name.

What is more impressive about that heady list of accomplishments is the fact that Verlander missed the entire 2021 season and all but one game of the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. And, despite being 39-years-old, he hardly missed a beat in 2022 with yet another dominant season to add to the record books.

In 28 starts, Verlander pitched to a career-best 1.75 ERA to go along with 185 strikeouts and just 29 walks in 175 innings pitched. He also gave up one earned run or fewer in 20 of his 28 starts, finishing with a 18-4 record. Verlander also recorded his second World Series win too as the Astros beat the Phillies in six games. He struck out 11 and allowed just one earned one in six dominant innings against the New York Yankees in the ALCS.

Very much like deGrom, Verlander proved in 2022 that he carried no ill-effect from a major injury and the only difference is that Verlander dominated over an entire season. While he will be 40 years old in 2023, all the signs are there that the two-time World Series winner has plenty left in the tank and the odds are that he will rank in the top five of pitchers in the majors next year. He could even go and win yet another Cy Young Award given that his changeup proved a lethal weapon in 2022 with a 38.5% whiff rate and a 23.3% put away rate.

However, also like deGrom, Verlander is looking to reset the market for starting pitchers this off-season and he’s seeking a deal similar to the three-year, $130 million contract Max Scherzer signed with the Mets last winter. That would mean the top of the rotation features one 40-year-old and one 38-year-old on big, big money and the likelihood of both of those deals aging well is low.

Father time remains undefeated after all and, while the odds are strong that Verlander will pitch to a high-level in 2023 and maybe even in 2024, a drop-off is coming and it is just a matter of when. Plus, as the body gets older, the risk of injuries propels upwards and giving Verlander a multi-year deal with an average annual salary of north of $40 million could evolve into a bad business decision pretty quickly.

Final Verdict

Both deGrom and Verlander are at similar stages of their career given they’ve both had to deal with significant injuries recently, both showed dominance in 2022 and both opted to turn down qualifying offers from their teams in order to hit free agency and attempt to reset the market for starting pitchers. Both players are also looking for a deal that would probably surpass the one Scherzer signed with the Mets.

Coming to a final decision is hard because both deGrom and Verlander are still capable of pitching at the very peak of their powers, and you wouldn’t be surprised if either player led the Mets to a World Series in 2023. You would feel very confident with either player on the mound, and Verlander probably has one more year of elite baseball left in him so there will be teams willing to ignore the last two years of that contract in order to commit to going all-out to win next year.

As for deGrom, there is probably more risk in signing the two-time Cy Young Award winner right now given that he’s suffered from back-to-back injuries that forced him to miss a considerable amount of time. As a result, the risk of the 34-year-old blowing his arm out again or missing small chunks of time with arm fatigue or soreness is certainly there. There’s no getting away from that. And deGrom’s late season struggles and lack of control with his pitches in 2022 may also cause some teams concern when going through the due diligence process.

However, when attempting to make a final verdict, there is no doubt that deGrom looked like the best pitcher on the planet as recently as 2021, and he showed flashes of that same all-conquering, dominant player in 2022. Plus, deGrom is a whole lot younger than Verlander which means that the Mets will more than likely get more years of good to great baseball out of deGrom then they would from Verlander.

While Verlander was the better pitcher in 2022, in large part because he was able to stay healthy, common sense dictates that natural regression will kick in sooner rather than later. On the flip side, deGrom should absolutely set the sport alight for a while longer if he can remain healthy and, while the if is a big one given his recent injury history, the Mets should feel more comfortable giving their longtime ace a blockbuster contract than they should with Verlander.

Plus, given how respected he is in that clubhouse and throughout the entire organization, deGrom deserves to play his entire career in Queens and, with all the facts and stats under consideration, he would be the best signing for the Mets this offseason. Sometimes sticking with what you know is no bad thing.