The Curious Case of Jorge López

Back on December 14, the New York Mets signed veteran reliever Jorge López to a one-year deal worth $2 million. The 30-year-old right-handed reliever is coming off an extremely disappointing season spent with three different teams. However, López is only less than two years removed from an All-Star 2022 season. So, what level of pitcher will the Mets get in 2024?

Pre-2022 Struggles

The former second-round pick from 2011 was a starting pitcher up until his All-Star 2022 season. Prior to 2022, the lowest ERA López was able to post in a “full season” was a 5.03 mark across 53 2/3 innings in 2018. Prior to his All-Star 2022 year, López went 3-14 with a 6.07 ERA and a 5.20 FIP starting 25 off 33 games in 2021.

Finally, the decision to move López to the bullpen full time was made after that historically bad 2021 season likely in hope to save the Puerto Rican’s career. Well, it worked, for at least most of the 2022 season.

López posted by far a career-best 2.45 ERA across 71 innings split with the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins. He posted bests in average exit velocity against, barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate. All three types of his pitches – fastball, breaking, and offspeed – had run values above the 65th percentile.

What Made López So Good In 2022?

It was said that the main reason for López’s resurgence and likely career-saving 2022 season was the rapid progression of seemingly all of his pitches. He added large amounts of both velocity and movement to all four of his pitch types. His velocity was up big-time across the board; 2.4 mph on his sinker, 3 mph on his curveball, 1.5 mph on both his changeup and slider, as well as 2 mph on his four-seam fastball.

As for his break, the amount of both horizontal and vertical break on his pitches, compared to league average, were much higher in 2022 than 2021. Every single one of his pitches were above league average, by 1.1% or more, in horizontal movement. Specifically, his slider went from -3.3% less break that league average to a staggering 3.4% more horizontal break than league average. Each of his other pitches also saw huge increases in break and graded out very strong in compared to his league peers. This also happened, albeit to a lesser extent, in regard to the vertical movement.

Basically, when López was moved to the bullpen, all four of his pitches radically improved. It led to a lot more soft contact (77th percentile and greater average exit velocity against and hart-hit rate) and a season where he emerged as one of the top relievers in the game. However, despite it on the surface being extremely strong, there were some troublesome aspects.

Reverting Back To His Old Self

López still struggled with walks, posting walk rate in the 16th percentile. Further, although he increased his strikeout rate from the 26th percentile to the 61st percentile, López still struggled to get opposing hitters to chase out of the strike zone (26th percentile) and whiff (39th percentile) on his pitches. So, his main avenue for outs was the soft contact on the ground (97th percentile ground ball rate).

Another troubling aspect in 2022 was after he was traded from Baltimore to Minnesota, López slowly started to revert back to his old self. He pitched 22 2/3 innings after the trade for the Twins, posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.35 FIP compared to his 1.68 ERA and 2.99 FIP numbers with the Orioles. The magic that was seemingly found in Baltimore wilted away and López struggled to end the season.

Unfortunately, those end-of-the-year struggles in 2022 continued over into 2023. After López was ditched by the Twins in a trade to the Marlins, the Marlins ended up designated López for assignment where he was then picked back up off waivers by the Orioles. In all, the right-hand reliever posted a very troublesome 5.95 ERA and 5.76 FIP in 2023.

López regressed in almost every major analytical category in 2023. His average exit velocity against and hard-hit rate were down to the seventh percentile, after he relied almost exclusively on soft contact, mainly on the ground, to build his All-Star campaign in 2022. Unsurprisingly, each of his pitches also decreased in movement, another pillar that López was built upon in 2022. Those said pitches also saw velocity fall off, granted not as much as the movement.

López’s 2023 reflected every other single season of his career, outside the immensely successful, for the most part, 2022. Specifically, that is a pitcher who owns a career 5.51 ERA, a mark that is one of the worst in baseball over that time.

What To Expect In 2024?

President of baseball operations David Stearns and staff took a very low risk ($2 million over one season), but potentially high reward route with bringing in López. New York will hope pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and staff will be able to get the once dominant López back to that 2022 form.

The main focus, as ever clear in the above, will need to be getting López’s pitches back to that 2022 form – high velocity and high movement. It is much easier said than done, but that is very clear what needs to happen for López to be a contributor for the Mets in 2024.

If the pitches remain largely similar to 2023, and pre-2022, López’s stint with the Mets may not be very long. Which, at the end of the day, although not ideal, would be survivable given the Mets’ bullpen depth and only $2 million value of López’s contract. However, if he is able to regain even half of the form he was in during his All-Star 2022 season, the Mets may have a steal on their hands.

Statistics and date from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.