Andy Martino of SNY reported that the Mets have the following on their Winter Meetings wishlist: outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching.

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The 2023 Winter Meetings are set to begin on Monday in Nashville. The meetings will run from December 3 through the 6th. With a plethora of roster spots open, president of baseball operations, David Stearns, has a lot of work to do.

Despite Winter Meetings not beginning for another 24 hours, the Mets have already been busy. The first “big” signing the team made was bringing in a reclamation project and former Yankees’ starter, Luis Severino, on a one-year, $13 million deal. New York also added depth in the form of utility infielder Joey Wendle, who will replace Luis Guillorme in a similar role next year. Lastly, they signed reliever Austin Adams to a major-league deal.

The team also made a plethora of depth moves, claiming catcher Tyler Heineman and utility player Cooper Hummel. Relief pitchers Kyle Crick and Andre Scrubb was also signed to minor-league deals. It is the beginning to what projects to be an extremely busy offseason for New York.

Steve Cohen. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Payroll Forecast and Potential Spending Consequences

Despite the flurry of moves, mostly for depth, New York has already made, the team is likely nowhere close to being done. To understand just how much flexibility they may have, a quick analysis of the team’s payroll and spending consequences is helpful.

Currently, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Mets own the major league’s highest payroll at $289,760,00–A figure already above the first aforementioned luxury-tax threshold.

For comparison’s sake, the second-highest 40-man CBT payroll team is the Philadelphia Phillies at $252.7 million. Last year, New York ended the season at a 40-man CB Tax payroll of $366.1 million, the Yankees were the second-highest at $298.5 million. Another interesting tidbit is New York is currently scheduled to possess $65,933,333 in “dead money” factored into their total figure thanks to the trades of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and James McCann, as well as the outright of Tomás Nido. This figure is higher than the Oakland Athletic’s current $59.3 million 40-man CB tax payroll.

So, what are the penalties for where the Mets currently stand? Where might they project to be by the beginning of the season? Specifically, given this is the third year in a row the Mets are expected to pierce the threshold, they will have to pay a 50% tax on all overages. Further, as the Mets spend more and more, as they are expected to, surcharges will be applied. You can find that breakdown below:

• $257 million to $277 million: 12% surcharge
• $277 million to $297 million: 45% surcharge (would be the third-straight year)
• Over $297 million: 60% surcharge

As you can, the Mets are once again expected to blow through all the thresholds.

You can read a more in-depth explanation on the potential penalties here.

Current Roster Outlook

Coming off an 87-loss season, where the organization rightfully entered “sell mode” at the trade deadline, has resulted in a team this offseason that has several holes. Roster moves, most notably the non-tendering of several players, such as Daniel Vogelbach, Trevor Gott, Luis Guillorme, among others, has also given the Mets extreme flexibility in their 40-man roster. As it stands, New York only has 33 players on their 40-man unit.

With everything we know now, entering Winter Meetings, how does the current landscape of the roster project?

Kodai Senga. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Rotation

1. Kodai Senga
2. José Quintana
3. Luis Severino
4. Tylor Megill
5. Joey Lucchesi

An under-the-radar loss New York suffered earlier in the offseason was David Peterson undergoing hip surgery. He is expected to be out until May. The Mets also have another option to factor into the above in José Butto, who showed flashes at points last year (3.93 xERA).

This is an area New York will likely continue to address, whether that be through free agency or the trade market.

Bullpen

There likely is not another unit on the team, especially after the signing of starter Luis Severino, that needs more work than the bullpen. As it stands, New York only has four relievers that will factor into the Opening Day roster: Edwin Díaz, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, and Austin Adams.

Other 40-man roster options consist of Grant Hartwig, Phil Bickford, Josh Walker, Sean Reid-Foley, and Reed Garrett. However, each does not have an established track record, and all but Reid-Foley (7 2/3 innings, 3.52 ERA) posted xERAs over 4.29 last season, with most being close to 5.00.

New York also has some non-40-man roster prospects that may get a look. Some of these examples are RHP Paul Gervase (2.05 ERA and 96 strikeouts across 57 total minor league innings last season), LHP Nate Lavender (2.98 ERA and 86 strikeouts over 54 1/3 total minor league innings last season), and the rehabbing RHP Bryce Montes de Oca. Meanwhile, they recently signed RHP Kyle Crick (3.56 career ERA) to a minor-league deal and Cole Sulser (3.87 career ERA) is a non-roster invitee.

The bottom line is there is a lot of question which signifies the Mets have a lot of work to do on the backend.

Pete Alonso. Photo by Roberto Carlo

Position Players

The group of position players that the Mets will largely reflect something similar to the group New York utilized last year. Here is how the depth chart currently stands based off the current 40-man roster (no specific order):

• C: Francisco Álvarez, Omar Narváez, Tyler Heineman
• 1B: Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos
• 2B: Jeff McNeil, Zack Short
• 3B: Brett Baty
• SS: Francisco Lindor, Ronny Mauricio
• LF: DJ Stewart,
• CF: Brandon Nimmo,
• RF: Starling Marte
• UTIL: Joey Wendle, Cooper Hummel

The Mets also have some younger minor leaguers like Jeremiah Jackson (22 home runs last season and .802 OPS after joining Double-A Binghamton) or Carlos Cortes (.783 OPS last season with Triple-A Syracuse) who may try to fight for a role out of training camp.

The Needs and Potential Options

It is pretty clear. President of baseball operations, David Stearns, has work to do. The glaring issues appear to be pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. With that being said, the lineup cannot be overlooked either. Both at some key positions and on the bench.

Pitching

The Rotation

As the rotation currently stands, two more external adds would be beneficial. Tylor Megill (5.85 xERA in 2023) and Joey Lucchesi (5.44 xERA) currently factor into the Opening Day rotation, however, each posted subpar underlying metrics in 2023. Despite Lucceshi escaping the season with solid traditional statistics, each have yet shown to be every-fifth day starters. Not to mention, the only depth behind the current rotation is José Butto. Not only would two more external options provide needed upgrades to the rotation, it would give New York much better depth.

It is fair to slot Kodai Senga in a top-two slot with José Quintana and Luis Severino slotting in the bottom part of the rotation. That leaves New York needing to fulfill a top-of-the-rotation starter and a bottom-of-the-rotation arm. Who are some options?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets’ interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto has long been rumored and he would instantly fill that top-of-the-rotation hole. Jordan Montgomery has also been a name mentioned as a potential pitcher on the Mets’ radar. He would also fulfill a spot in the top half of the Mets rotation.

As for other top-half rotation options, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shohei Ohtani also are still on the market. However, as it relates to Ohtani, New York has reportedly turned their attention to other players.

The bottom half of the rotation free agent options that would benefit the Mets, in order of wins above replacement (WAR) from last season consist of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Wade Miley, and Domingo German, among others.

There is also the trade market, where top arms such as Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, and Shane Bieber are allegedly available. However, New York has seemingly shown unwillingness to trade any of their top prospects. Making it more likely if they do go to the trade market for a starter, it would be a back-half starter.

Edwin Díaz. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Bullpen

As for the bullpen, the unit may need even more work than the rotation. Teams conventionally carry around eight relief pitchers, New York currently has four of those spots fulfilled (Díaz, Raley, Smith, and Adams) leaving several established relievers needed to complete the unit.

Some of the more prominent right-handed relievers on the market who performed well last season are David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel (3.28 xERA in 2023), Robert Stephenson (2.73 xERA in 2023), Hector Neris (3.33 xERA in 2023), Phil Maton (3.14 xERA in 2023), Jordan Hicks (3.33 xERA in 2023), Ryan Brasier (3.55 xERA in 2023), Chris Stratton (3.58 xERA in 2023), and Dylan Floro (3.35 xERA in 2023), among several others.

As of now, the only established left-handed major leaguer the Mets have is Raley. The top options on the free agent market are Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader. Given the existence of Díaz, the spending on Hader would seem unlikely. Other left-handed options who are free agents and were strong in 2023 are Brent Suter (3.23 xERA in 2023), Will Smith (3.35 xERA in 2023), Matt Moore (3.30 xERA in 2023), and Scott Alexander (3.61 xERA in 2023).

As you can see, luckily, there are a plethora of solid relief pitchers on the market. Look for the Mets and president of baseball operations, David Stearns, to be extremely active there.

Hitting

As previously mentioned, New York’s position group is much closer to being set, on paper, than the rotation and bullpen. The likely focuses are potential supplemental options to Brett Baty at third base, left field, potential Starling Marie insurance in right field, and another designated hitting option.

New York already signed Joey Wendle, who is capable at third base, however, also is left-handed and projects more as a depth move than a potential platoon option at third base. The two top options at the corner infield spot are Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario. However, with New York likely hoping Baty is the future at that spot, a depth option would likely be better. Those potential options are Justin Turner, Brian Anderson, Gio Urshela, and Evan Longoria.

Teoscar Hernández. Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

Left field projects as more of an everyday opportunity for a potential external option. DJ Stewart was re-signed, but a repetition of an .840 OPS performance from last year would be a tall task, his fielding does not exactly scream everyday left fielder, and he is a prime candidate to get designated hitter at-bats. The top left fielder options on the market consist of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, and Adam Duvall.

Additionally, New York was also recently mentioned as a team who is interested in KBO-import Jung Hoo Lee. Lee, who is a center fielder by trade, can slot into left field or New York can move Brandon Nimmo to left and leave Lee in center. If the Mets do choose to move Nimmo to left to fill that slot, center field options in free agency, outside of Lee, consist of the likely overpriced Cody Bellinger, former Blue Jay defensive maestro Kevin Kiermaier, and former Yankee and Cardinal Harrison Bader.

As for the other corner outfield position, Starling Marte may be the biggest question mark on the roster. After a terrific 2022 season, Marte struggled in 2023 immensely, due in large part due to injuries. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding what he will be in 2023. For that reason, do not be surprised if New York makes a move to bring in depth there. Depth outfield options consist of Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham, Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo, Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe, Robbie Grossman, among others.

Designated hitter is another interesting question for the Mets. They seemingly have numerous in-house options, many of which are of the younger and unproven variety (Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty) as well as the previously mentioned Stewart. The main designated hitter options on the market are the aforementioned Solar, Rosario, Turner, Renfroe, as well as J.D. Martinez, Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen, and Joc Pederson. Of course, there is Ohtani, however, as mentioned before, the Mets have seemingly turned their attention elsewhere.

Despite having a mostly solid internal stable of options, New York still has some work to do in ensuring no glaring holes in the team’s lineup.

Final Thoughts

The Mets have already been active this offseason, however, with Winter Meetings commencing expect them to be even busier given the current state of the 40-man roster. Their rotation and bullpen still require some makeover and the lineup will need a couple additions as well.

Having the richest owner in sports surely helps, and New York has the flexibility other teams certainly do not possess. However, with this being said, the team has likely learned a lesson from last year’s splurge on aging players, and currently has a new-found stable of intriguing and still developing prospects they need to be cognizant of.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns has long been praised for his craftiness and for running a perennial playoff-bound organization in Milwaukee. With more resources than he has ever had, and several positions needing filling, expect him and New York to be extremely active in the coming days and weeks.

Based on all the above, what do the Mets need to prime themselves for a return to the playoffs in 2024? Two starters, three bullpen arms, a left fielder, a designated hitter, and some position player depth. They have the adequate resources to do so, and an individual at the helm who has been very successful in years past.

Make sure to follow along with us here at Metsmerized every step of the way as our in-depth offseason coverage continues!

The post Previewing The 2023 Winter Meetings From The Mets Perspective appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Minor league players in the Major League Baseball Players’ Association have reached a tentative agreement with the league on its first collective bargaining agreement, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal is for five years and includes at least two times the pay at all minor league levels, according to Passan.

While the deal is tentatively agreed to, it still needs to be fully approved by both the union and MLB owners. Passan reports that the deal includes minimum annual pay increases of over $15,000 in Low-A, over $16,000 in High-A and Double-A, and over $18,000 in Triple-A.

Because this is the first CBA for minor leaguers, there are tons of details to sift through. Player leaders have ratified the deal, and it is tentative until the rank-and-file agree, which the union expects. Similarly, MLB owners need to agree after the league office negotiated.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 30, 2023

As part of the agreement, the Domestic Reserve List, which governs the maximum number of players in an organization outside of Latin America, will be reduced from 180 to 165 starting next season, Passan reports. The league had been seeking a reduction of the Domestic Reserve List dating back to last year’s negotiations during the 2022 lockout.

As another wrinkle of the new CBA, players who sign at age 19 or older are now under club reserve for six years, rather than the current seven, according to Evan Drellich of The Athletic. However, the rule will not be retroactively applied.

Drellich reports that the MLBPA vote is currently underway, and is expected to be concluded by midnight Wednesday.

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The Major League Baseball season started 31 days ago. So far, we have seen the New York Mets get off to a hot start, and post some exciting wins (including a no-hitter). One thing we have not seen is as much offense as there has been in recent years.

How much is offense down around the game in 2022? An article on ESPN.com provides context. First, batting average was only .231 in April, the lowest it has been in the month of April in baseball history. So what? Some say batting average has become an archaic statistic. Well, the offensive brownout goes much further.

Here are some numbers: OPS in April was .675, the lowest since the “pitcher’s year” of 1968. Don’t forget, pitchers no longer bat in the National League, so that should have contributed to an increase in OPS. Runs coming courtesy of the home run are also down. According the ESPN article cited above, in 2022 just 36% of runs are produced by the long ball. This compared to 43.5% in 2019 (when it seemed everyone was whacking the ball over the wall).

Teams are hitting fewer home runs in 2022. In fact, this season teams are hitting 0.91 home runs per game. This compared to 1.14 in 2021 and 1.31 in 2019. It’s clear, from statistics to the simple eye test that offense in baseball is way down this year. We commonly hear “it’s the ball, they’re messing with the ball.” Is that true? In fact, it may be.

In 2019, there was a home run hit in 6.6% of MLB at-bats, that number was 6.5% in 2021. In an effort to keep the ball in the yard a bit more, MLB did tamper with the baseballs for the 2022 season. Here’s how, from the ESPN article:

In an effort to better center the ball, tension was loosened on the first of three wool windings within the ball. Rawlings’ research ahead of the season estimated the adjustment would bring down the coefficient of restitution (a measurement of the bounciness) and also reduce the ball’s weight by 2.8 grams without changing its size.

Those changes were designed to lose one to two feet of distance on balls hit more than 375 feet.

There’s another big thing at work in this formula: all teams are using humidors this year. Statistics show that in parks that are using humidors for the first time this season (only 13 did so last year), it is taking 13.1 more at-bats to produce a home run. Players are well aware of the new deadness of the ball. From the ESPN article:

“There was one in Minnesota where I hit like 106 at 29 degrees, got caught at the track. That should be a no-doubt homer. The other one was 104 at 27, which should be a homer and got caught,” Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux said. “Talking to some guys in Atlanta where [the second] ball was hit, it’s like, boom, hot off the bat, then they get up and just kind of die in the air.”

The pattern is clear. Major League Baseball has altered the ball to tone down home runs. There will be a pitch clock, wider bases, and shift bans next season. The powers that be want to move the game back to where it was in the 1970s and 1980s. A time when there were more balls in play, more base stealing, and more of an emphasis on scoring runs in a variety of ways.

Some fans will like the changes, others will not. There’s no stopping the swing of the pendulum at this point. Baseball wants a quicker pace and more action. Some may say that this is tinkering with the inherent beauty of the game. There’s no clock, the games plays out in its own way and at its own pace. Others may say that the writing is on the wall. Baseball traditions are becoming less relevant. Action sells, regardless of how may we romanticize the ebb and flow of a baseball game.

Baseball is in a period of change off the field as well. Select games are streaming exclusively now (on soon-to-be pay services), players will be wearing advertising on their jerseys, there’s gambling at some ballparks, just to name a few. Whether these changes are good or bad for the sport won’t become apparent for a few years. Fan interest (attendance, television ratings, etc.) will be the ultimate barometer.

It will be fascinating to see where baseball is, and what it needs to do, in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. What will baseball in the year 2027 look like?

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Another deadline came and went early Wednesday morning, as representatives from the owners and players met deep into the night, emerging without a deal. However, the MLBPA is expected to respond to ownership’s latest proposal as early as today. If you chose wisely and went to bed during last night’s bargaining session, here is the latest on the CBA negotiations.

UPDATE, 8:30pm EST, 3/9/2021

After MLB announced the cancellation of more games, the mood around the negotiations appeared bleak. However, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post is reporting that MLB is still mulling over MLBPA’s counter proposal re: draft pick compensation and the international draft. Hope springs eternal?

UPDATE, 6:00pm EST, 3/9/2021

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic gives us yet another “deadline” issuance from MLB to MLBPA. Owners are giving the players until tonight to either take one of the international draft options or the discussions will conclude and games will be canceled.

UPDATE, 5:15pm EST, 3/9/2021

Ken Rosenthal reported that the union was told MLB would offer a counter today, but now owners are requiring the players to accept one of the three options before a counter will be issued. MLB sources dispute this claim. The international draft is at the center of these claims from both sides.

UPDATE, 4:00pm EST, 3/9/2021

Jesse Rogers of ESPN paints the picture from an ownership source of what it will likely take for an agreement today. He lays out three options. 1- Eliminate the QO draft pick compensation while holding off on an international draft but leaving open an out clause to reassess the draft before the completion of this CBA. 2- Agree to the financials without a draft, but the QO and draft pick compensation remain in place. 3- Take the deal as is, International Draft in exchange for a draft pick compensation removal.

UPDATE, 3:45pm EST, 3/9/2021

Multiple sources are now reporting on the details of MLBPA’s latest proposal including Evan Drelich, Jon Heyman, and Bob Nightengale with mixed opinions on hope for a deal to get done. Drelich highlights the unions’ movement in the financials, especially the CBT thresholds and prearb number. It appears the monetary figures are inching closer together, but the international draft hurdle may prove to be too tall to leap. Heyman hints MLB could make one more offer in the coming hours.

UPDATE, 3:00pm EST, 3/9/2021

First details of the MLBPA counteroffer have emerged. According to Ken Rosenthal, the International Draft is a sticking point amongst Latin American players. Additionally, the union is seeking higher CBT thresholds, more money in the prearb pool, and the elimination of the qualifying offer.

UPDATE, 2:00pm EST, 3/9/2021

The MLBPA negotiating group has just left MLB HQ. Their proposal is now in the hands of the owners.

UPDATE, 1:41pm EST, 3/9/2021

More information about the international draft has come out. Alden Gonzalez reports that MLB has updated two elements of its proposal. The draft will begin in 2024 with 5% higher bonuses for each slot, starting at $5.5125 million for the first overall pick. The draft will be 20 rounds, 600-plus picks and undrafted players can sign for up to $20,000.

UPDATE, 1:08pm EST, 3/9/2021

According to Jon Heyman the sides are moving slow today, probably after negotiating just past 3 a.m. last night. Originally the hope was to get a deal done by this afternoon but now tonight is in play. If a deal is done today, there will be a 162 game schedule with the canceled games made up on off days and extending the season a few days.

UPDATE, 12:00pm EST, 3/9/2021

Players begin to weigh in on a proposed international draft, as Jeff Passan of ESPN is reporting. Former MLBer, David Ortiz, has concerns about a draft. Puerto Rican ballplayers had similar concerns after their island became subject to the current MLB Amateur Draft. Ortiz is bothered by how rapidly this would be implemented, stating the Dominican Republic is not ready for such a drastic change. The owners have identified this as one of their major points of negotiations. It is unclear if the players will concede in order to achieve the goals they have for a potential deal.

UPDATE, 11:30am EST, 3/9/2021

More from Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY on how a deal today would lead to an early April Opening Day and how games missed would be made up using doubleheaders. April 6-7 appear likely to be the start date should the good news come today.

UPDATE, 10:30am EST, 3/9/2021

Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY tweets owners stuck on instituting an International Player Draft, willing to forego qualifying offers for free agents in return. Players see the QO as a limiting tag for potential free agents but have been opposed to the idea of another draft.

Maria Torres of The Athletic expands on the details of a potential international MLB draft, citing comparable current amateur draft slots and calculating how much more money could be spent on this pool of players if the owners’ proposal is included in a deal.

UPDATE, 10:00am EST, 3/9/2021

Jon Heyman of MLB Network shares the perspective of an owner on how far they believe their side has moved toward making a deal with the players, citing a $16 million increase in the CBT, $100,000 increase in player minimum salary, and $10 million more in the pre-arbitration player pool. However, we are still left to wonder if the players agree that MLB has moved enough in their direction to get a deal done today.

Meanwhile, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post relays the presence of MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred at headquarters. Manfred will likely appear behind a podium today to either announce a new CBA agreement or to cancel more regular season games.

UPDATE, 9:00am EST, 3/9/2021

Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY, assuredly running on fumes after last night’s marathon, suggests MLB would cancel games as early as this afternoon if no deal with the MLBPA can be reached. The players’ Executive Council is set to meet soon to review the latest offer from the owners.

UPDATE, 2:30am EST, 3/9/2021

Two sides continue talking and have made definite progress. But large gaps remain in major areas, sources tell @TheAthletic. Parties now calling it a night.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 1, 2022

A late-night/early morning wraps up without a deal in place. Representatives for the players request additional time to present the owners’ proposal to their Executive Council in the morning, with hopes of curating a response early Wednesday.

MLB official says the Players Association requested to speak to its board again early tomorrow before coming back with a proposal, and the PA will be getting back to MLB tomorrow morning. So, to be clear, MLB is not canceling games at this moment right now.

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022

UPDATE, 12:00am EST, 3/9/2021

Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY announces that sides would extend the initial Tuesday at midnight deadline before the owners cancel more regular games. However, extending the timeframe did not mean the bargaining would conclude, as details surfaced after midnight about the MLB proposal.

Evan Drelich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reveal movement from the owners on three critical points of these negotiations: CBT threshold, pre-arbitration pool, and minimum player salaries.

Furthermore, details of a Steve Cohen tax threshold penalty emerge, seemingly targeting the Mets owner as a threat to smaller market owners unwilling to invest similar capital into their teams. MMO’s Nate Mendelson explores this angle here.

One segment of these negotiations that haven’t been covered as deeply is a new International Draft and eliminating free-agent qualifying offers. In their Tuesday proposal, the owners linked these issues together in what appears to be one point from each side of the table. A “scratch my back and I will scratch yours” move by MLB.

Other potential pieces to MLB’s proposal included unlimited expedited rules changes during the offseason, which the MLBPA had suggested a three rule limitation. Owners increased their draft lottery number to include six teams, up from five with limits to curb small market versus big market “tanking.”. They would limit in-season options to five per player before one would need to clear waivers, granting a full year of service time to rookies finishing in the Top 2 for ROY, and rewarding teams with picks should they have rookies on their Opening Day rosters based on performance.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network had news on expanding the playoff pool to 12 or 14 teams. MMO’s Patrick Glynn gave his spin on the latter version here.

All day, stay tuned to MMO for the latest breaking news on MLB and MLBPA’s CBA negotiations!

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Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players’ Association have broken off negotiations with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire at midnight on December 1.

All indications are that the owners will impose a lockout beginning December 2, which would halt all free agent signings and trades. The offseason activity had taken on a somewhat frenzied pace in the past week, as players and clubs tried to make as many deals as possible before the proverbial music stops and all player movement will freeze.

New Met, and union leader, Max Scherzer said the lockout as “seems like a very likely scenario.” The two sides have been in Dallas all week, and have had a series of negotiating sessions. However, all reports indicate that no progress is being made and that being the case, the lockout will happen. Nightingale reports that MLB and the MLBPA met twice on Wednesday, once for 50 minutes and once for just seven minutes. The owners left the last session abruptly, and there are no new bargaining sessions planned.

The owners have to vote on the lockout. The concept is expected to easily pass the vote, placing the game, and its fans, on hold indefinitely.

While there are several issues that keep the two sides apart, the primary one seems to be the competitive nature of the game. The players are concerned that many teams do not make a legitimate attempt to compete each year, by not spending on players and positioning themselves for higher draft picks, a practice referred to as “tanking”.

The owners have proposed a $100 million floor on salaries that all teams must meet, and moving to an NBA-style draft lottery to put incentives to compete in place. The players say those moves do not go far enough. From the article, Scherzer adds, “We’re trying to make the game better, more competitive. We’re absolutely committed to doing that. It’s just not me, it’s everybody. It’s obvious to all of the players.’’

Another key point in the CBA negotiations is the threshold at which the Competitive Balance Tax would be implemented. The owners have proposed $185 million, escalating to $220 million in the final year of a five-year agreement. The players have countered with $210 million in year one of the deal, moving to $245 million in year five. The gap is wide.

On the matter of expanding playoffs, the union has opposed the idea, while the owners have pitched expanding the postseason field to 14 teams. Most recently, the players have moved to offer a 12-team playoff format, showing some degree of concession.

The other hot topic revolves around free agency and arbitration. Players want arbitration after two years of service instead of the current three. Owners have proposed doing away with arbitration entirely and basing pre-free agency salaries on a metric, such as WAR. Regarding free agency, the most recent MLB proposal offers it as 29 1/2 years of age. The players do not support this, rather, they are lobbying to maintain free agency after six years of service, or beginning in 2024, at the age of 29 ½ with five years of service, whichever comes first.

And adding insult to injury, according to Travis Sawchik on Twitter, the owners would like to alter pension funding in the new CBA.

Owners proposed reduced MLB pension funding (no cost of living increases), I'm told. That's one way to end a meeting quickly.

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) December 1, 2021

Both meetings today, as noted above, did end quickly. This dispute has all the makings of a long one. With the NFL entering its most exciting time and the NBA and NHL in full swing, MLB, if this is a long disruption, stands to both alienate its fans and then become less relevant in the sports landscape.

On the day when the Mets introduced Scherzer, and the newly-acquired Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha, the game may be shut down just hours later. The Mets, according to general manager Billy Eppler, are still seeking to improve the team. Additional starting pitching, bullpen arms, and another bat or two seem to be areas of focus. Quality free agents, such as Kris Bryant, remain available. However, winter may literally be coming very soon.

The Mets will have a significantly new look next season. How long we will have to see the finished product on the field remains to be seen. MLB and the MLBPA have a history of lengthy labor disputes, and this one may be short or may last long enough to impact the start of spring training and season. As fans, we can only hope that the two sides have learned from the past, and are not set to repeat it.

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The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the players’ union is set to expire at the beginning of December and fans are already preparing themselves for the likelihood of a delayed season or no baseball at all in 2022.

However, MLB is saying “not so fast.” Per ESPN‘s MLB insider Jeff Passan, MLB and the players’ association met for their first negotiating session on Tuesday. Many in the sport fear that this would be a long and contentious negotiation, taking into consideration how the relationship between the league and the players’ association has soured in recent years; both sides having at points accused each other of acting in bad faith and multiple failed attempts to make deals, especially during last year’s attempted deal-making to get the season off the ground in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

MLB has not had a major work stoppage or strike since the 1994-95 strike that ended up cancelling the World Series. At the time of the strike, the Expos (now the Nationals) had the best record in baseball at 74-40. They never recovered from the strike and moved to Washington in 2005.

Both sides know that the sport of baseball is a $10 billion industry and it would be gravely harmed by a major work stoppage. The league is looking at pace-of-play issues as well as expanded playoffs. The players’ union on the other hand is looking at funneling money to players at the start of their careers and earlier free agency.

This will no doubt be a topic of discussion as the season wears on and especially once we get into the postseason. We’ll have more on the labor negotiations as it develops.

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As of mid-evening on Wednesday, the MLB and the MLBPA are still talking and appear to be nearing an agreement that would save the 2020 season.

Commissioner Rob Manfred and Player Association representative Tony Clark met earlier in the day and the meeting was called productive. A few hours later, Manfred released a statement acknowledging the meeting with Clark.

“We left that meeting with a jointly developed framework that we agreed could form the basis of an agreement and subject to conversations with our respective constituents. I summarized that framework numerous times in the meeting and sent Tony a written summary today. Consistent with our conversations yesterday, I am encouraging the Clubs to move forward and I trust Tony is doing the same.”

According to several sources, the framework that Manfred alludes to consists of a 60-game season with a 100% prorated salary. In addition, it also includes a $25 million postseason pool.

Further, the MLB asked for inclusion for a universal designated hitter for not only the balance of the 2020 season, but for the 2021 season as well. With the CBA expiring after the 2021, it seems a foregone conclusion that it will be added to a new CBA, bringing the DH to the National League long-term.

A proposal for an extended playoffs is also being included by MLB. It would expand the playoff field to as many as 16 teams.

So should we be hopeful as baseball fans?

Joel Sherman of the New York Post, is still pessimistic about a deal, claiming he’s been to this dance before. Yet he did tweet this earlier in the day:

“It probably should be assumed if Manfred flew to meet with Clark that he was authorized by his bosses (the owners) to deliver an offer that was either acceptable or pretty darn close to it. Even the most pessimistic folks I am texting with right now say momentum is toward a deal.”

Jon Heyman suggests optimism as he tweeted at 8:25 PM:

The framework of the deal between Manfred and union chief Clark included: 60 games at 100% full prorated pay, waiver of grievances, 16-team expanded playoffs for 2 years, universal DH, more. Owner sources say it was agreed to pending constituency approval, meaning owners, players

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 18, 2020

Please stay tuned to MMO for all the latest as it is likely this will be updated as more information unfolds.

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Jeff Passan of ESPN reports Chicago Cubs 3B/OF Kris Bryant has lost his service time grievance, and as a result, will not be a free agent until after the 2021 season.

Bryant filed his grievance during his rookie year when the Cubs had him start the 2015 season in Triple-A and did not call him up until they had gained an extra year of control over him. As noted by Passan, if Bryant has been called up to the majors one day sooner he would be a free agent after the completion of the 2020 season.

The ruling which will not be released for approximately another week will find “the Cubs did not run afoul of service-time rules when they called Bryant to the major leagues in April 17, 2015.”

At the moment, the Cubs are rumored to be looking to trade Bryant in the offseason due to a combination of their purported budgetary constraints and overtures from Bryant he will not be signing an extension with the team.

With both the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals having lost out to the Minnesota Twins for Josh Donaldson, both teams have been rumored to be interested in obtaining Bryant. With the Cubs being assured of having two years of control over Bryant, it’s unlikely they’ll ease off their high demands for Bryant with them having rumored to ask Victor Robles from the Nationals.

There are also larger implications for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Even before this ruling, the practice of holding a player in the minors to gain an extra year of control was going to be a hotly contested issue like it has been in the past few CBA negotiations.

This past year we saw players like Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr. begin the year in the majors thereby costing their organizations an extra year of control over those players. It will be interesting to see it other organizations choose to follow suit this year and the next in anticipation of renegotiating the CBA which expires on December 31, 2021.

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I had the pleasure of speaking with Eno Sarris, national baseball analytics writer for The Athletic last week.

Sarris previously wrote for FanGraphs and has been a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America since 2012.

We touched on a number of subjects, including the current labor environment in Major League Baseball, as well as what’s in store for this year’s incarnation of the New York Mets. Enjoy!

MMO: The word collusion is being tossed around liberally these days. The last two offseasons certainly suggest something’s not right. Judging by your reaction to Tom Verducci’s article for Sports Illustrated on Tuesday, it’s clear that you disagree with his statement that “free agency is fine”. Could you expand on your current feelings about the situation?

Eno Sarris: I think the middle class is disappearing. You look at deals like Todd Frazier‘s, Asdrubal Cabrera‘s, Wilson Ramos‘ deal. They are these under-market deals that are for league-average players and they used to be bigger than they are now. Teams will say “Oh, we’re just getting smarter and we’re not spending on 33-year-olds the way we used to”, and that’s fine. The problem is, CBA rules have limited other ways that you can spend money on players.

You can’t spend more money in the draft anymore, that’s all slotted. You can’t spend more money on the international market anymore, that’s been slotted. So, basically, money that’s not going to the middle-class of players is not going anywhere. And if you want to say the stars are still getting paid — that’s somewhat true, they’re still doing ok.

But, if you adjust Manny Machado‘s deal to today’s dollars, it’s actually only the tenth-biggest contract of all-time. Which is weird because baseball just recorded their biggest profits of all-time, so there’s something off. The stars are still getting paid but they’re not quite getting paid like they used to. The middle-class is still getting paid but not quite like they used to. And role players? They had to take one-year deals. Asdrubal Cabrera is going to be a league-average this year. He took a one-year deal for $4 million.

That money’s not going to the players in some other way. The league-minimum salary has gone up 38 percent since the last CBA (2016) I think, and profits have gone up 68 percent. Young players aren’t getting more in arbitration, necessarily. The middle-class and the role players are disappearing. There’s basically been deflation in the market for two straight years, and the last time that happened was the 1994 strike.

MMO: Do you think what’s happening now is a precursor to another work stoppage?

ES: You know, there’s a couple of interesting things on the table here. [A proposed] expansion is an interesting thing for [MLB commissioner Rob] Manfred to be talking about because expansion means another 50 or so jobs, and that’s a significant bump. And there are more minor-league jobs so it’s not just 50 or so. It’s an infusion of opportunity for the players.

There’s also talk of “how can we ensure that every team is being competitive”. That’s an interesting thing to talk about, too, because you can come up with salary floor initiatives, or just ways to sort of encourage teams like the Rays or the Marlins or whoever to spend a little more.

I think they’re sort of drawing some battle lines. I hesitate to say if [a strike] is definitely going to happen, but I would say that these players are pretty upset. And I have heard the c-word (collusion, naturally) from multiple players which — and I haven’t been in the clubhouse forever, but I’ve been in the clubhouse for going on eight years — I haven’t heard before.

MMO: That’s alarming.

ES: There’s Mark Reynolds saying he didn’t hear from anybody for weeks and weeks and all of a sudden he got four minor-league offers on the same day. Then you have teams basically telling players that their evaluation algorithm or whatever says x or y or z. I think that, to some extent, there is something to that.

It’s hard to prove collusion. It’s been done a couple of times in the past with baseball, but I think what’s difficult this time around is that there is some element of teams have all gotten to a certain point analytically, so there are not many teams out there that, like, don’t have their own projection system, for example. Or don’t have their own concept of aging curves. There’s no owner who’s just like, “I’m just gonna give Chris Davis $170 million”.

So I think maybe the analytics have kind of led to this equalization of offers, but there’s still no way for that money that’s going away from the middle-class to get back to players. There needs to be a way for that to happen. Maybe it’s as simple as doubling the minimum salary. If that’s $1 million or $1.5 million, young players get a lot more. So any player who amasses three or four years of service time and manages to bank $5 million or whatever feels a lot better about his situation in baseball.

It’s hard for me to know without getting inside their [heads], but I do think that this is going to be a fairly contentious CBA.

MMO: Do you feel that a minor-league pay increase will be addressed any time soon?

ES: Since the MLBPA doesn’t cover minor-leaguers — it’s a different union — probably not with the upcoming CBA. I’ve definitely talked to a lot of major leaguers who talk about, “I made it through, why can’t they”, or whatever. There are a lot of players who want to put a focus on it, but I just think it’s probably like the third or fourth or fifth priority for players.

Plus, I’m not sure how much leverage players are going to have. One of the things they can do is strike, or they can start talking about hardening the luxury tax into a true salary cap. Because if the teams are going to act like it’s a cap anyway, maybe they can get some sort of concession out of that. They need to be thinking about how they can gain some leverage, what they can swap, and the way MLB is acting about minor-leaguers is so scared and so proactive that I think that they think it’s a really big deal.

Maybe the MLBPA puts it on their platform, but I’m sure they give up on it quick. Because it just doesn’t benefit the people they represent yet. It benefits their future players, but not necessarily the people that they’re representing right now.

MMO: Moving on to the Mets. Their starting rotation showed significant improvements across the board in the second half under pitching coach Dave Eiland. He seems to have a mantra that the entire group is buying into. Jacob deGrom is probably considered as automatic as anyone else in the group, but Zack Wheeler, who a lot of folks are looking to as a key cog in this rotation, has a lot to live up to. Do you feel another step forward is in the cards for him?

ES: It’s certainly possible he takes a step forward. One of the things that’s nice about Wheeler is that he was the only pitcher on baseball last year to have five pitches with a 10 percent whiff rate or better (close; his four-seamer registered a 9.3 percent mark while his slider [12 percent], curve [13.2 percent], changeup [12.4 percent], and splitter [14.8 percent] all reached that threshold).

So he has five pitches that are really good and when he’s throwing 95 MPH he can get whiffs on all of them. As his command improves on all those secondary pitches and as he understands better how to sort of play with them, I see some similarities with Carlos Carrasco who has a large variety of pitches and was throwing 95 MPH when he was at his best. Also, some of the injury history that Carrasco had.

So there is a possibility for progression. My real main concern for the Mets starters is just injury. I think if they are all healthy this year it’s going to be maybe the best staff in baseball. I don’t know how you can really go up against Noah Syndergaard as a number-two, Wheeler as a three-four. It’s just a great combination of pitchers.

MMO: Over to the outfield — Brandon Nimmo had an unbelievable season last year, especially from the analytics side of things (.385 wOBA, 149 wRC+ rating). Do you think he’s able to sustain that level of production?

ES: Yeah, I think he’s going to regress on the power level a little bit (17 home runs in 2018). I mean, he just didn’t really show it before. His Statcast numbers don’t necessarily suggest that he’s going to hit for that type of power. But he does have elite plate discipline and I think that’s a good place to start. Especially, if he can really hone in on down the middle, that’s a great way to make the most out of his power.

There’s a small chance he turns into Joey Votto-type player, but most likely he’ll be a high-OBP, sort of 18-to-20 homer guy. Really good player, a great leadoff hitter, and a good enough outfielder. I think the fact they went out an got two centerfielders [in Keon Broxton and the incumbent Juan Lagares] means that they don’t really want Michael Conforto or Nimmo to play too much in centerfield.

MMO: As a fan base, we were kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop. Now we have two defensively-talented fourth outfielders pegged into centerfield, but we were thinking Brodie Van Wagenen would add another good corner outfielder and rotate everyone around. Now it appears they’re heading into the season with this group.

ES: It is a little weird, the fact that you’ve got two right-handers trying to platoon in centerfield. It’s not obvious to me but maybe they have splits where they feel like one of them is better against righties, that’s fine. But I do think maybe they’re just hoping that one of them will step forward between Broxton and Lagares.

One becomes an everyday guy, one becomes a fourth guy, and then when Yoenis Cespedes comes back there’s going to be a chance that you will see some Nimmo and Conforto in centerfield. By that time you would have developed Lagares or Broxton into kind of a super-sub. And as soon as you get a lead you can rest Cespedes’ heels or whatever you need to do.

MMO: That would be the ideal situation. You wrote a great article on Conforto’s productive second half last year and him coming into this year with a head full of steam. Do you think he’s bringing MVP-caliber play to the table this year?

ES: I think so. It’s hard to understate how much I love his plate approach and the way that he sprays his balls around. He has opposite-field power. I think he’s one of the best hitters in the league right now.

The shoulder injury was a difficult thing for him and I think you saw in the first half that — I don’t know if he came back too early — but he was still shaking the rust off. But if he can sustain that exit velocity that he showed in the second half once he was more healthy, I think you could see the kind of season where he’s got like a .280 batting average, close to a .400 OBP, and over a .500 slugging percentage because he’s that type of special player.

There have been some weird batted ball effects at Citi Field over the last few years and people have been talking about how the ball reacts differently in Citi Field. But I was looking into it and I think they’ve been working on it because the effect has gotten smaller every year over the last four years.

I think they’ve figured out that the ball was stored a little bit weirdly and they’re doing something about it. I know that Conforto had a weird one-year split and was bad at home last year (.211/.311/.371 at home; .271/.381/.514 on the road). I expect that to get ironed out.

MMO: Do feel like the Mets have done enough to contend in the National League East?

ES: Well, I wish that they had spent more like the Yankees and pushed it another $20-to-$30 million. I think adding Dallas Keuchel or even a better sixth or seventh starter instead of Hector Santiago would have been nice.

Getting A.J. Pollock instead of Broxton might have been a better fit. But, it’s pretty obvious if you look through their past salary and what they’ve done, you know $150 million — I’m not sure if it’s a hard cap for them — but that’s basically where they stop spending.

Given the fact that they pushed it close to $150 million again, I love what they did. They have a lot of redundancy in the infield. With Jeff McNeil moving into the outfield I think they’ve got deeper depth out there. If Peter Alonso doesn’t work out, they’re fine. They can move Robinson Cano to first or Todd Frazier. If Jed Lowrie gets hurt, fine, you’ve got depth. If one of the corner guys go down, McNeil can play a little bit.

So I think they’ve done a really good job of creating redundancy. As a Mets fan, you’ll understand, injuries will come and it’s much better to have a plan. I think Adeiny Hechavarria was a good signing too. I wouldn’t say he’s a league-average player but I wouldn’t want Jed Lowrie playing short if Amed Rosario went down.

Lowrie, despite the potential injury (MRI was being taken at the time of the interview), I’ve been covering him and he’s a great addition to the clubhouse. Hopefully, the injury will just be a short-term thing and because does provide much-needed depth at multiple positions

So now you’ve got a real backup shortstop and with J.D. Davis and McNeil and Alonso all having options, you don’t have to have them on the major-league roster. So you can have veterans on the major-league roster and when someone gets hurt, then it’s time to call up Pete Alonso. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alonso, Davis, Luis Guillorme, all those guys, are in the minors to begin the year.

Then when the first injury happens they come up, and if they rake then they re-evaluate. I think in past years, the Mets have been like, “Well, we’re going as far as these rookie are going to take us because we don’t have any other plans”.

I’d just like to extend another huge thank you to Eno Sarris for taking the time to speak with Metsmerized. If you’re not already subscribing to The Athletic, Eno’s work is reason enough to plunk down the dues. Be sure to follow him on Twitter (@enosarris). 

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Major League Baseball commissioner Robert Manfred was speaking at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Massachusetts today covering a number of topics.

One of the most discussed topics was expansion, which Manfred said he is a proponent of and would like to see the league have 32 teams. Though he would like the stadium situations to be resolved in Oakland in Tampa Bay before discussing expansion.

The first city Manfred mentioned for a new team was Montreal as well as Mexico and he also said that geographic realignment “could really help us.”

Manfred went on to say that he thought they had an agreement on new roster expansion rules in the last CBA before the players’ backed out in the end. MLB was going to agree to expand regular season rosters to 26 players but then limit September rosters to 28 players instead of 40.

Lastly, in an effort to avoid tanking, Manfred said that MLB has proposed minimum salary payroll rules only to be rebuffed by the players’ union on multiple occasions.

Tanking has become a wide scale discussion recently with both the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays selling off numerous major pieces of their rosters.

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