Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players’ Association have broken off negotiations with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire at midnight on December 1.

All indications are that the owners will impose a lockout beginning December 2, which would halt all free agent signings and trades. The offseason activity had taken on a somewhat frenzied pace in the past week, as players and clubs tried to make as many deals as possible before the proverbial music stops and all player movement will freeze.

New Met, and union leader, Max Scherzer said the lockout as “seems like a very likely scenario.” The two sides have been in Dallas all week, and have had a series of negotiating sessions. However, all reports indicate that no progress is being made and that being the case, the lockout will happen. Nightingale reports that MLB and the MLBPA met twice on Wednesday, once for 50 minutes and once for just seven minutes. The owners left the last session abruptly, and there are no new bargaining sessions planned.

The owners have to vote on the lockout. The concept is expected to easily pass the vote, placing the game, and its fans, on hold indefinitely.

While there are several issues that keep the two sides apart, the primary one seems to be the competitive nature of the game. The players are concerned that many teams do not make a legitimate attempt to compete each year, by not spending on players and positioning themselves for higher draft picks, a practice referred to as “tanking”.

The owners have proposed a $100 million floor on salaries that all teams must meet, and moving to an NBA-style draft lottery to put incentives to compete in place. The players say those moves do not go far enough. From the article, Scherzer adds, “We’re trying to make the game better, more competitive. We’re absolutely committed to doing that. It’s just not me, it’s everybody. It’s obvious to all of the players.’’

Another key point in the CBA negotiations is the threshold at which the Competitive Balance Tax would be implemented. The owners have proposed $185 million, escalating to $220 million in the final year of a five-year agreement. The players have countered with $210 million in year one of the deal, moving to $245 million in year five. The gap is wide.

On the matter of expanding playoffs, the union has opposed the idea, while the owners have pitched expanding the postseason field to 14 teams. Most recently, the players have moved to offer a 12-team playoff format, showing some degree of concession.

The other hot topic revolves around free agency and arbitration. Players want arbitration after two years of service instead of the current three. Owners have proposed doing away with arbitration entirely and basing pre-free agency salaries on a metric, such as WAR. Regarding free agency, the most recent MLB proposal offers it as 29 1/2 years of age. The players do not support this, rather, they are lobbying to maintain free agency after six years of service, or beginning in 2024, at the age of 29 ½ with five years of service, whichever comes first.

And adding insult to injury, according to Travis Sawchik on Twitter, the owners would like to alter pension funding in the new CBA.

Both meetings today, as noted above, did end quickly. This dispute has all the makings of a long one. With the NFL entering its most exciting time and the NBA and NHL in full swing, MLB, if this is a long disruption, stands to both alienate its fans and then become less relevant in the sports landscape.

On the day when the Mets introduced Scherzer, and the newly-acquired Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha, the game may be shut down just hours later. The Mets, according to general manager Billy Eppler, are still seeking to improve the team. Additional starting pitching, bullpen arms, and another bat or two seem to be areas of focus. Quality free agents, such as Kris Bryant, remain available. However, winter may literally be coming very soon.

The Mets will have a significantly new look next season. How long we will have to see the finished product on the field remains to be seen. MLB and the MLBPA have a history of lengthy labor disputes, and this one may be short or may last long enough to impact the start of spring training and season. As fans, we can only hope that the two sides have learned from the past, and are not set to repeat it.