Should the Mets trade Matt Harvey? This is a question that many Mets fans are divided on these days and one that is constantly debated on sports talk radio and television. I’m going to take this opportunity to outline the possible pros and cons of dealing the 26-year old right-hander.
As most of you know, Harvey came back from Tommy John surgery this year and had himself an outstanding season, earning himself the NL Comeback Player of the Year award. He went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.017 WHIP over 29 starts, 20 of which he allowed two runs or less. In 189.1 innings, he struck out 188 batters, allowed 156 hits and walked only 37.
His postseason was also very impressive, going 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.008 WHIP, striking out 27 batters in 26.2 innings pitched. His World Series Game 5 start was stellar, pitching 8 scoreless innings before giving up a walk and a double in the 9th, leading to two runs charged to him.
As Ken Rosenthal put it on MLB Network, “Harvey delivered the most dominating season ever seen by a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery.”
Before I delve into the pros and cons of dealing Harvey, keep in mind that GM Sandy Alderson clearly maintained that it is very unlikely that the Mets would trade either of Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz this offseason, asserting that he has no intention of weakening the one strength of the team.
Harvey’s incredible comeback season was tarnished somewhat when his agent Scott Boras created a firestorm after he publicly stated that the Mets were ignoring a hard innings limit of 180 on his client, a charge that Sandy Alderson vehemently denied.
In a lapse of judgment, Harvey initially backed Boras’ version of events before coming out and saying he was on board with whatever the Mets asked of him. However, the damage was done and he angered a lot of Mets fans who no longer saw him as the warrior he portrayed himself to be.
There are also concerns about some off-the-field issues with Harvey by his detractors, most of which are well documented on MetsBlog. However most if not all of these allegations were unfairly overblown and bordering on an invasion of his privacy, taking issue with his choices of what he does and where he goes during his time off.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, rumors were fabricated and published that he never traveled with the team and took private jets instead, a charge that Harvey and his teammates all denied. But Harvey does feed into this negativity with some poor choices, like missing a mandatory team workout before the World Series which angered teammates and management.
Let’s assume the Mets were to trade Matt Harvey, how best could we maximize his value and what areas of the team would be best served?
Starting pitching is clearly the Mets strength. Harvey followed by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Jon Niese, and soon, Zack Wheeler, is an incredibly formidable staff. A timeless strategy states that a team should deal from a strength to fortify a weakness. The team’s most prominent weakness is the same as it has been since Jose Reyes left after the 2011 season: Shortstop.
The Mets’ current shortstops are Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada. While Flores showed that he can handle the position defensively, many still have their doubts. It is very reasonable to believe that Tejada will come back from his injury, but the real question is will he be the weak offensive player he was in the first half of the season, or the strong offensive player of the second half?
Assuming the Mets will go after a shortstop, who should the target be? I think we can all agree that the days of pining for Troy Tulowitzki are over. After he hit .239 in Toronto, only to be injured again at the end of the season, it’s time to close the book on him. What other great-hitting, great-defending shortstops are out there on the trade market?
Let’s take a look at the Dodgers’ Corey Seager. The 21-year old shortstop came up late in the season, playing in 27 games. The lefty-swinging prospect impressively slashed .337/.425/.561, hitting four home runs and driving in 17, while striking out only 19 times. He is also a solid defender. If the Dodgers fail to bring back Zack Greinke this offseason, their rotation will be fairly weak after Clayton Kershaw. They would definitely be on the prowl for a top of the rotation starter, and Matt Harvey would definitely fit the bill. The Dodgers have plenty of money, and could easily fill the new hole at shortstop via free agency, possibly by overpaying Alexei Ramirez or Ian Desmond.
Fly half way back across the country to Chicago, and the Cubs have three shortstops the Mets could pursue. The Cubs have Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, but the rest of their rotation is fairly weak. The Cubs are widely expected to make a run at free agent David Price so you would think a Matt Harvey would have huge appeal for them. However, in order to make a deal work, at the very least they would need to give up one of three players: Addison Russell, Starlin Castro, or Javier Baez. Each of those players are probably better both offensively and defensively at shortstop than what the Mets are currently employing, and any of them would be a good fit. But it’s been reported by many that Theo Epstein expects some extraordinarily unrealistic return for any of his shortstop options. As long as he continues to overvalue Castro, Baez and Russell, odds are they stay put.
Hop on a train to Detroit, and there plays an outstanding defensive shortstop named Jose Iglesias. The 25-year old All Star has been put in a elite defensive class alongside the Braves’ Andrelton Simmons. He has very little power to speak of, hitting just two home runs in 120 games. But he makes up for it with a .300 batting average and .350 on-base percentage, and he stole 11 bases this season. He could be a solid leadoff hitter, allowing Curtis Granderson‘s power to slide down to the middle of the lineup. The Tigers’ starting rotation consists of former Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander, Alfredo Simon, Anibal Sanchez, and highly-touted prospect Daniel Norris. The rotation has a lot of big names, but the numbers just ween’t there in 2015. They could absolutely have serious interest in Harvey as they seek a top-flight starter this offseason. Adding a stellar defensive shortstop who can bat leadoff would be ideal for the Mets.
Fly back to the Northeast, but this time land in Boston’s Logan Airport (what a great name for an airport!). The Red Sox have an exciting young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts who had a phenomenal season in 2015. Bogaerts batted .320/.355/.421 with 196 hits including 35 doubles, three triples, seven home runs, and 10 stolen bases. He is very well-liked in Boston, but starting pitching is easily Boston’s top weakness and Bogaerts’ name is always coming up in trade rumors. Bogaerts would fill a huge need for the Mets, while Harvey could be the ace the Red Sox are looking for. This mega-deal is tantalizing for both sides.
These are just a few shortstop options to consider in return for Harvey, and in most of these scenarios you would expect to receive another piece in addition to the shortstop who headlines the deal for the Mets.
There is still one more con to trading Matt Harvey…
Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler could end up being the best 1-5 rotation in modern baseball history. The Mets could have a stellar rotation for years to come, and some have already said they could be better than the vaunted Atlanta Braves rotation that included Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. The thought of that is so enticing that it gives one pause to trading Harvey to fill a need at shortstop.
The Mets could pursue Ian Desmond or Alexei Ramirez in free agency and keep Harvey. They also have Matt Reynolds, Amed Rosario and Gavin Cecchini waiting in the wings.
Matt Harvey is a rare breed of starting pitcher. Not only does he have the physical talent, but he has the attitude of an ace. There’s a strong possibility that Harvey is only going to be better next season, two years removed from TJS. The thought of that is so exciting. In a rotation full of aces, Harvey could be the #1 for years to come. Sure, we could probably get a nice haul for him, but the Mets would be better served by keeping their Dark Knight in Gotham.
