For the first time since winning it all in 2021, the Atlanta Braves (10-13) are coming to Citi Field to face the Mets (16-7) in a four-game series. The Mets are heading into the series hot, having continued their winning ways against the Phillies. The Mets took the rubber game in decisive fashion with a 10-6 win, crushing the Phillies’ bullpen. With this win against the Phillies, the Mets have won seven straight series to start the season.

Jeff McNeil continued his hot start at the plate against the Phillies. He is now slashing .361/.418/.528 for the year. Francisco Lindor had a solid series after cooling off slightly against the Cardinals, recording one RBI on four hits and scoring two runs across the three games.

The starting pitching has been great for the Mets, except for Carlos Carrasco’s most recent start against the Cardinals. The bullpen was solid in the first game against the Phillies, with four relievers contributing to the no-hitter. Things got a little shaky in the second game, with Adam Ottavino giving up three runs and taking the loss. But the bullpen did its job in the third game, holding onto the large lead the offense provided.

Things have not been going as well for the Braves- they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. They also have managed to win only one series so far this season, against the Cubs. However, the Braves did split two four-game series, their opening series against the Reds and a series against the Padres. But in general, the champs have been struggling.

The 2022 Braves are a somewhat different team from the one won the World Series last year. Freddie Freeman is gone, a newly minted Dodger, and many of their 2021 midseason acquisitions that helped propel them to the World Series have found new homes. Also, superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is back, having returned on Thursday from the torn ACL he suffered last July. Acuna’s arrival is timely for the Braves, as their lineup has struggled to start the season.

Newly acquired first baseman Matt Olson is leading the team with a .291/.392/.465 slash line, but that is mostly due to a hot start. He has cooled off recently and is 6 for 44 in the last 11 games. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have each hit six home runs so far this year, and Riley is leading the team in RBIs with 13. The Braves’ hitters also struggled with runners in scoring position during their last series against the Rangers, going 3 for 23 as a team across the three games.

This first series between the Mets and Braves will be telling. The Mets are on the rise right now, and while the Braves are no strangers to second half comebacks, it would benefit the Braves to get their season going sooner rather than later. Riley admitted as much, telling reports that there is a “sense of urgency” for the Braves against the Mets, because of the rivalry and the Mets hot start.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Monday, May 2, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (3-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2-2, 3.00 ERA)

After struggling in his start against the Giants, Chris Bassitt bounced back nicely and threw six innings of shutout ball against the Cardinals in his last start. Bassitt has never faced the Braves before, and only three Braves hitters have ever had at bats against him: Orlando Arcia, Travis Demeritte, and Marcell Ozuna.

Max Fried struggled early this season, giving up eight runs in 11 innings of work during his first two starts. He turned things around against the Dodgers, tossing seven scoreless innings and getting the win. He followed up that start with six innings of one-run ball against the Cubs. The Mets historically have had their hands full with Fried- he has a career 2.78 ERA against them. If Bassitt and Fried keep up their good results of late, game one is likely going to be a pitchers’ duel.

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday, May 3, 2022 Game 1: RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 4.09 ERA) vs. TBD

Carlos Carrasco struggled in his last outing against the Cardinals. After being handed a three-run lead by his offense, Carrasco melted down and ultimately gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings. He had been pitching well prior to that outing. He had a stellar start against the Giants, pitching into the eighth inning (the first Mets starter this year to do so) and giving up only two runs. If he can return to his form from the Giants game, the Mets should have a good chance of winning game two.

Tuesday, May 3, 2022 Game 2: TBD vs TBD

Game three is a make-up of one of the early season games that was canceled due to the lockout. As of the writing of this article, neither the Mets nor the Braves had officially named a starter. But when David Peterson was sent to the minors on April 23, Buck Showalter mentioned that Peterson would likely be brought back up to start against the Braves in the double header.

Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday, May 4, 2022: RHP Tylor Megill (4-0, 1.93 ERA) vs. RHP Ian Anderson (2-1, 4.66 ERA)

Tylor Megill is leading the Mets starters with a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings. He was also the starting pitcher in the Mets combined no-hitter against the Phillies. Megill has far surpassed expectations so far this year, and he has done a superb job filling in for Jacob deGrom. The Mets have a good chance of winning with Megill on the mound.

Ian Anderson struggled in his first start of the season against the Reds, giving up five runs in 2 2/3 innings. He pitched better in his next three games, going at least five innings in each start. But he has also given up at least one run in every outing. Historically, the Mets have done well against Anderson. They have beaten him twice and scored nine runs against him in four starts. If the Mets hitters keep focusing on putting the ball in play, they should be able to do some damage against Anderson.

Prediction

Because the Mets are catching the Braves at a down moment, there is a decent chance they could take three of four games this series. Game one is going to be the deciding factor. If Bassitt outduels Fried, the Mets can take series 3-1 by splitting the doubleheader and winning game four. If Fried outduels Bassitt, a series split is more likely, unless the Mets can manage to sweep another doubleheader the same way they did against the Giants.