The New York Mets continue their last three city road trip of the year with a stop in Minneapolis to play a pair against the Minnesota Twins. The nine game trip will conclude with the Mets third jaunt to California this year as they play the San Francisco Giants in a four game set. The Twins games will mark the fifth inter-league series of the year for New York and their second series against the Twins. The two teams split two meetings at Citi Field on April 9-10.
The Mets won their first road series since April taking two out of three against the Miami Marlins coming out of the All-Star break. After losing the first game to the Fish, the Mets won the last two games with Noah Syndergaard pitching very well in the second game. The bullpen held steady and the Mets won their second road series of the year against the Marlins. The Mets (42-51) are 4-4 so far in July after a tough June where they went 10-18.
Against the Twins, the Mets have fared well over the years, winning nine of their last eleven games. This visit to Minnesota will mark only the second time since Target Field opened in 2010 that the Mets will play there. The last time was in 2013 when the Mets swept a three game set against the Twins.
The Minnesota Twins (58-34) lead the American League Central by 6.5 games over the Cleveland Indians. The Twins are coming off a three game series against the Tribe winning two out of three in a hard fought series. Since a strong May where the Twins went 21-8, they’ve been treading water, playing just over .500 ball going 20-16 since June 1. The Indians have gained three games on the Twins in the last month. Still, the Twins are a large step-up in class for the Mets who need to maintain the momentum from their mini two game winning streak.
The Twins lead the American League in run differential at +121. They have scored 523 runs in 92 games played which averages to almost 5.7 runs per game. Fittingly, they are near the top of the AL in most offensive categories ranking an overall second in team batting to the Boston Red Sox. They lead the league in home runs, RBIs and hits.
Shortstop Jorge Polanco leads the team in batting average, hitting .311. He also shares the team lead in runs scored with Max Kepler each of whom has 58. Kepler, the right fielder, leads the Twins in home runs with 23 and left fielder Eddie Rosario leads the way in RBIs with 60. Minnesota has a well-balanced offense that has consistently been among the best in the AL.
As far as team pitching, the Twins rank fourth in the American League. They have a 3.92 team ERA and a .244 BAA. Jake Odorizzi leads the team in wins with 11. He also tops the Twins with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Jose Berrios has 110 strikeouts, the most on the team while Taylor Rogers leads in saves with 13. The Mets will miss Odorizzi in this short two game set, but will still have to deal with a pair of good pitchers in Michael Pineda and Martin Perez.
Surprisingly, Minnesota is ranked near the lower half of the AL in team defense. They are ranked tenth having committed 58 errors. The Twins have a .983 fielding percentage.
The Twins are managed by Rocco Baldelli. At just 37 years of age, he is the youngest skipper in MLB. He replaced Paul Molitor who had managed the team for the prior four years. Baldelli is the 14th manager in the over 100 year history of the Minnesota Twins. This is Baldelli’s first managerial role, and he’s the first manager the Twins have hired from outside the organization since Ray Miller in 1985. According to the Minnesota press, he has completely turned around the attitude of the team from the lackluster squad that finished 13 games behind Cleveland last year, to the first place team they are today.
Tuesday, July 16: LHP Steven Matz vs RHP Michael Pineda
2019 Stats: Matz 5-6 record, 4.89 ERA (5.40 FIP), 1.481 WHIP, 8.7 Ks/9, 3.2 BB/9; Pineda 6-4 record, 4.56 ERA (4.29 FIP), 1.176 WHIP, 8.2 Ks/9, 1.6 BB/9
Steven Matz was moved up a day in the rotation due to Zack Wheeler going on the IL because of right shoulder fatigue. Matz is coming off two relief appearances where he pitched a total of one inning and allowed no runs and three hits. His last win was back on June 8 against the Colorado Rockies. Since that time his ERA has gone up a full run, from 3.88 to 4.89. He has two losses over that span. Matz has never faced the Minnesota Twins in his career.
Michael Pineda pitched his best baseball of the season just before the All-Star break. In four of his five starts before the break, Pineda only gave up one earned run in each game to raise his record to 6-4. Pineda had been the victim of the home run ball allowing 14 in his first 12 starts, but since then he has allowed but two. He is coming off a season high nine strikeouts in his last start, a win against the Texas Rangers.
As a member of the New York Yankees, he made two starts against the Mets in 2015, winning them both, pitching to a 0.67 ERA. The suddenly hot Robinson Cano is six for nine off of Pineda with two home runs and four RBIs.
Wednesday, July 17: LHP Jason Vargas vs LHP Martin Perez
2019 Stats: Vargas 3-5 record, 4.23 ERA (4.66 FIP), 1.304 WHIP, 7.5 Ks/9, 3.6 BB/9; Perez 8-3 record, 4.26 ERA (3.70 FIP), 1.368 WHIP, 8.1 Ks/9, 3.8 BB/9
Martin Perez started the season like a house on fire going 7-1 by May 23. Since then, he has only won once and that was in his last start against the Texas Rangers. His ERA has risen from 2.95 to 4.26 during that roughly six-week span. He faced the Mets in relief on April 10, allowing three runs on three hits over two innings in the Mets 9-6 victory.
Perez also faced the Mets in 2017 as a member of the Texas Rangers getting the win. He allowed only one earned run over eight innings in that game.
Michael Conforto and Wilson Ramos each have two RBIs against the Twin’s starter.
Although not entirely certain who will make the start for the Mets on Wednesday, both NBC and CBS Sports are reporting it will be Jason Vargas. There is no confirmation on the Mets web site.
If it is Vargas, he is coming off a poor performance against the Marlins where he allowed a season high six ER in five IP. Prior to that start, he had not given up more than three runs since April 13. His ERA went up from 3.77 to 4.23. He has been an effective pitcher for the Mets and hopefully his last start was just an aberration.
Vargas pitched an inning against the Twins on April 9 and gave up 4 runs on 4 hits. Lifetime, Vargas has an 8-4 record against Minnesota.
Prediction: With the Mets rotation in a state of flux due to the Wheeler injury, this series could be a problem for the Amazins’. They are playing a first place team without a discernible weakness playing solid baseball. However, as they say in the NFL, this could be a classic ‘tweener’ series for the Twins. They just finished a tough road trip against Cleveland and then they follow the Mets series with three against the Oakland Athletics and three against the Yankees. So it is possible the Mets can be catching the Twins at a good time despite some pitching uncertainties.
With the Mets good record against Minnesota over the years and perhaps a touch of momentum from the Miami series, the pick here is for a split of the two games. Going 3-2 as they head for San Francisco to play the last-place Giants would give the Mets a chance for a respectable road trip.
