The Mets (21-26) travel to Philadelphia to take on Joe Girardi‘s Phillies (23-23) in a three-game series beginning Tuesday night. The Mets are coming from a series against the Blue Jays in Buffalo, where Toronto took two of three. The Phillies are fresh off a seven-game series with the Marlins, in which Miami won five of the games.
For the Mets the task is clear-win at least nine of the remaining thirteen games to get to .500 (or better) and hope for help to qualify for the post season. The Mets will begin the series on the outside looking in at the National League playoff picture, trailing the Phillies, Giants, Rockies, and Brewers (and tied with the Reds) for the last two wildcard spots.
The Mets have themselves to blame for their perilous position, as after winning easily against the Jays on Friday night, they lost Saturday night due to some shoddy play (Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario), and lost Sunday when the bullpen allowed five runs in the sixth inning to turn a one-run deficit into a six-run hole.
The part that might sting most for the Mets is that they squandered opportunities to move up in the standings over the weekend, as the Giants, Rockies, and Brewers all lost games to open the door for the Mets.
The Mets and Phillies have played seven games this year, with the Phillies winning five of the games. In mid-August, the Phillies swept three from the Mets in Philadelphia, and the teams split a four-game series at Citi Field in early September.
In the series opener on Tuesday night, Rick Porcello (1-4, 6.07 ERA) will take on Jake Arrieta (3-4, 5.54 ERA). Porcello has been bad this season, after the Mets signed him to a one-year deal following the 2019 season. In his last start against the Orioles, Porcello lasted four innings, allowing five earned runs on 10 hits, in a game the Mets won. Arrieta last pitched against Miami on September 10th, going five and two-thirds innings, letting up three earned runs on five hits.
Wednesday night, Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) will face the Phillies. The Phillies have not yet named a starter for the game. DeGrom was good, though a touch off his best effort, in his last start, tossing six innings, allowing one run on three hits to Toronto. DeGrom struck out nine in the game. The Phillies’ rotation has been impacted by their recent seven game series. Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47 ERA) is a candidate to start, after missing his last turn due to a freak injury he sustained while putting on a pair of pants.
Thursday night, Seth Lugo (2-3, 2.63 ERA) will make the start for the Mets. The Phillies have not named a starter for the game. In his last start against the Blue Jays, Lugo pitched five and a third innings, surrendering three runs on seven hits. Lugo struck out five in the game. He was not at his best in that game, but managed to keep the Mets in the game and give them a chance to win.
What To Watch For (statistics through games of 9/13)
For the Mets, Jeff McNeil left Sunday’s game with gastrointestinal discomfort. The Mets need the flying squirrel, who is slashing .319/.390/.493 with four home runs.
Michael Conforto is having an MVP-caliber season. He’s currently at .343/.428/.586 with nine home runs. The Mets need him to stay hot.
Dominic Smith has been consistent at the plate all season, posting a slash line .333/.396/..637 with eight home runs.
On the other side of the coin, Pete Alonso has fallen a tough times. His BA is .222 with 11 home runs. Alonso has a 0.1 WAR on the season.
Michael Wacha, struggling as a starter, will pitch out of the bullpen, likely for the rest of the season.
For the Phillies, J.T. Realmuto is their best offensive player by fWAR (1.7). Realmuto’s line is .267./.357/.527 with 11 home runs.
Bryce Harper .259/.417/.489 with eight home runs.
Met killer Jean Segura is slashing .259/.339/.401 with five home runs, most of which seem to have been hit against the Mets.
The Phillies’ starters’ ERA is 4.05, 11th in MLB. Their bullpen continues to be their Achilles Heel, with an ERA of 7.27, 28th in MLB.
The Mets need to take advantage of the Phillies’ bullpen, something the Mets have not done enough thus far. They got to the Philadelphia bullpen on September 7th, when they rallied from a 6-0 deficit to take a lead, in a game they lost in extra innings.
The Mets will need strong starts from Rick Porcello and Seth Lugo to go along with an expected effective outing from deGrom. Porcello has been mostly ineffective this season, and the Mets have to rely on him to find his 2016 or 2018 form at a time when the team is desperate for wins. Lugo will need to pitch well, as he has been doing since his move to the rotation. The bullpen will need to be better (Brad Brach was ineffective Sunday), and Edwin Diaz will need to be on his game since he will be called upon in save situations.
The Mets have a tall task ahead of them, and need the pieces to come together in a way they haven’t all season. Their fate is not exclusively in their hands. They will have to control what they can control by taking care of business down the turnpike beginning Tuesday night.
