Series Preview: Mets Search for Answers Against Marlins

Coming home after a 10-game road trip was supposed to be a good thing for the New York Mets (62-59). That didn’t prove to be true midweek, as they dropped two of three against the Oakland Athletics. 19 runs in three games was a positive sign for the offense, but the rotation and the bullpen didn’t hold up their end of the bargain.

The Mets will hope to flush that and play better baseball against the Miami Marlins (45-76), who have lost six of their last 10. Entering this weekend, the two teams are tied 5-5 in the season series.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

Friday, August 16, 2024: RHP Roddery Muñoz (2-6, 5.67 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (8-5, 3.44 ERA)

Roddery Muñoz has had an up-and-down rookie season. He has largely struggled, particularly at home (1-3, 6.63 ERA in eight appearances). You wouldn’t be able to tell based off his encounters with the Mets, however. In two starts against New York, Muñoz is 0-1 with a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings. He gave up just one hit in six innings when he last pitched at Citi Field all the way back on June 13. The Mets had a lot of trouble against his four-seam fastball and cutter, so let’s see if they can make the right adjustments and find success the third time around.

Sean Manaea has been the best starter for the Mets since the middle of June. Over his last 11 starts, he is 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over 62 1/3 innings. That being said, his last outing did not go well. Manaea went just three innings while giving up three runs, four hits, and most importantly, a season-high five walks in a 4-0 loss against the Seattle Mariners. He is now allowing 3.7 walks per nine this season, which would represent a career-high. Commanding the strike zone will be a point of emphasis as he faces the Marlins for the third time this year.

Saturday, August 17, 2024: RHP Max Meyer (3-2, 5.20 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (7-6, 4.17 ERA) 

Max Meyer was considered to be a top prospect in the Marlins’ farm system shortly after being drafted with the No. 3 overall pick in 2020. Injuries have slowed him down in the early stages of his career, but he should continue to earn opportunities in the rotation over the final month-and-a-half of the season. Since coming up from Triple-A Jacksonville in late July, Meyer is 1-2 with a 7.91 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. Home runs have been an issue for him as of late, allowing at least one in three of his last four starts. Meyer is primary a two-pitch pitcher, heavily utilizing a slider and a four-seam fastball.

There has been a night-and-day difference between Luis Severino in the spring and Luis Severino in the summer. Over the first two-and-a-half months of the season, the right-hander was fantastic. But, as the year has gone on and his innings have piled up, he has been prone to making mistakes more frequently. He made quite a few of those his last time out in Sunday’s loss against the Mariners. The big blow was a two-run home run from Cal Raleigh, the second long ball Severino allowed on the night. The right-hander has pitched to a 6.00 ERA in the second half. Not good. On a positive note, Severino is 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in three starts against the Marlins.

Sunday, August 18, 2024: RHP Valente Bellozo (2-1, 2.28 ERA) vs. RHP Paul Blackburn (5-3, 4.43 ERA)

Valente Bellozo is just five starts into his big league career, but that has not stopped him from making a strong early impression. He has given up two runs or less in four of those five outings, and he has not allowed a run over his last 12 2/3 innings. His last outing was his best to date, throwing seven scoreless innings against the first-place Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. Bellozo will not blow hitters away with his four-seam fastball, a pitch that has an average velocity of 90 MPH. Watch out for an effective cutter as well.

Paul Blackburn’s first blip as a Met wound up coming against his former team. Everything that could have gone wrong for him did on Monday against the Athletics. Seth Brown collected three RBIs on a bases-clearing double in the top of the first inning. Two innings later, Shea Langeliers hit a three-run home run to blow the game open. Blackburn completed four innings while surrendering six runs on seven hits in a 9-4 loss. Sunday will provide a chance for him to rediscover some confidence against the Marlins, who he beat on May 4 as a member of the A’s.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Francisco Alvarez (NYM)

After coming off the injured list with a bang in June, Francisco Alvarez simply hasn’t looked like himself over the past month-and-a-half. He hit .200/.263/.314 in July, which he’s followed up by slashing .235/.257/.294 so far in August. He’s recorded just one home run and six extra-base hits over that span as well, leading to questions surrounding his health and the possibility of lingering effects from his prior injury. Alvarez came up short several times during the late innings of the Mets’ loss on Thursday, but the hope is that he can turn it around the Marlins this weekend.

Jake Burger (MIA)

After batting .225/.265/.370 during the first half of the year, Jake Burger has suddenly become one of the best hitters in the league in recent weeks. The 28-year-old slugger has mashed an MLB-best eight homers this month to go with a slash line of .365/.433/.846 and a wRC+ of 241. Burger tagged the Mets for two long balls when they travelled to Miami in July, so New York’s pitching staff should know what they’re in for this time around.