The 2026 Major League Baseball draft is only a little under a month away and the Mets have the 27th overall pick as their first pick. Multiple websites have released their mock drafts as well as their draft prospect rankings so let’s dive into these.

David Stearns
Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

David Stearns’ and Kris Gross’ Past Picks

Before we look to the future we should look at the first round picks that have been made before. First let’s look at the first picks Mets vice president, amateur & international scouting has made both with the Mets, and when he was in charge of the Astros’ drafts from 2018-2023.

  • 2018 – College Hitter – Seth Beer, OF, Clemson University
  • 2019 – College Hitter – Korey Lee, C, University of California
  • 2020 – High School Pitcher – Alex Santos II, RHP, Mount St. Michael Academy (2nd Round)
  • 2021 – High School Hitter – Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman (3rd Round)
  • 2022 – College Hitter – Drew Gilbert, OF, University of Tennessee
  • 2023 – College Hitter – Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska
  • 2024 – College Hitter – Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State University
  • 2025 – College Hitter – Mitch Voit, 2B, University of Michigan

One thing to note is that the Houston Astros lost their first two picks in 2020 and 2021 for their sign stealing scandal. Every year Kris Gross had a first round pick, he took a college hitter who played a premium defensive position.

David Stearns’ first draft was in 2016. Between the Brewers and the Mets he oversaw drafts that took with the teams’ first picks:

  • 2016 – College Hitter – Corey Ray, OF, University of Louisville
  • 2017 – College Hitter – Keston Hiura, 2B, UC Irvine
  • 2017 – High School Hitter – Tristen Lutz, OF, Martin High School
  • 2018 – High School Hitter – Brice Turang, SS, Santiago High School
  • 2019 – College Pitcher – Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State University
  • 2020 – College Hitter – Garrett Mitchell, OF, University of California
  • 2021 – College Hitter – Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  • 2022 – College Hitter – Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  • 2024 – College Hitter – Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State University
  • 2025 – College Hitter – Mitch Voit, 2B, University of Michigan

Similarly to Kris Gross, David Stearns has shown a preference to draft up-the-middle defending college hitters with his teams first overall picks. It makes sense that Stearns would hire someone with a similar philosophy. Gross also has experience with having later first round picks with the Astros so he is well prepared for the Mets picks falling back ten spots for being over the competitive balance tax.

The Player Archetype They Typically Draft

In addition to preferring to draft college bats with the first picks, most of their picks were up-the-middle defenders when drafted predominately playing center field, shortstop, or second base. These players largely share many of the same tools as well.

Each of these players had strong hit tools with plus plate discipline and pitch recognition traits when drafted. Carson Benge hit .335 with a .444 OBP his last year of college while Drew Gilbert hit .362 with a .455 OBP. They typically do not prioritize large leg kicks focusing on “toe tap” loads like Drew Gilbert’s load as described in 2023 by Colby Morris of MMO. When they have drafted guys with busier loads, they immediately simplified them, and in those cases went after hitters like Carson Benge and Mitch Voit who had already shown the ability to make adjustments in college. They have not typically prioritized pull heavy hitters with batters like Carson Benge and Sal Frelick being gap oriented hitters. Bat speed also seems to often be a priority. For example Garrett Mitchell has one of the fastest swings in the sport.

Power is routinely more secondary for both Gross and Stearns, but not completely ignored. Outside of Seth Beer, Gross’s first pick, contact has been a clear priority over power. It makes sense as well that even college bats can add more muscle to increase their power output, but the innate pitch recognition and plate discipline skills are harder to teach.

Athleticism is a prerequisite in their picks. Most of their picks are good runners. That helps both on the basepaths but in field their position as well. Especially with the many outfield picks they have made. A player with good sprint speed is much more likely to be able to man center field than one without. Many of their draft picks have been described as “twitchy”, meaning they utilize their agility to get better first steps.

Athleticism, agility, plate discipline, and pitch recognition with some power potential seems to be the typical first pick of both Stearns and Gross. In their draft analysis Baseball America described Sal Frelick as this exact player type saying, “Frelick is an explosive, quick-twitch athlete who has premium speed and the hand-eye coordination to put the ball in play at a high clip. He’s not a big power threat, but his contact skills, speed and ability to play a premium position give him a chance to develop into an above-average regular in the middle of the field.”

The Current Mock Drafts

ESPN

ESPN has put out both their 1.0 and 2.0 versions of their mock drafts.

In 1.0, they have the Mets drafting Cade Townsend, a right-handed pitcher out of Ole Miss.

This would be a big departure from the type of player Stearns and Gross have taken with their first picks, but not completely unprecedented as Gross took Alex Santos in 2020 and Stearns took Ethan Small in 2019. Townsend was a reliever until he converted to a starter, similar to former Mets draft picks Christian Scott and Brandon Sproat. He averaged 95-96 miles per hour on his fastball and throws a sweeper, curveball, splitter, and cutter. BP puts his ceiling at prime Walker Buehler.

In 2.0, they still have the Mets taking a pitcher, but this time it is Mason Edwards, a left-handed pitcher out of USC. He throws from an over the top slot, something Jonah Tong and Tobias Myers do from the right side, sitting 91-93 miles per hour on his fastball with a two plane slider, a spike curveball, and a changeup.

They also mention that high school prep catcher Will Brick could be a potential there. Kriss Gross did draft a catcher with the first pick once in 2019, and Stearns has taken a high school hitter twice. Brick is a power over hit catcher with a plus arm and good defense behind the plate.

MLB.com

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has the Mets taking Carson Bolemon, a left-handed pitcher out of Southside Christian High School. Boleman can throw his low 90s mile per hour fastball for strikes and has multiple plus breaking balls with strong spin. When the Mets have drafted pitchers they have prioritized ones that have plus spin rates. He also throws a changeup and is committed to Wake Forest.

Jim Callis of MLB.com has the Mets taking outfielder Aiden Robbins of Texas with their first pick. Robbins has a quick bat and strong contact skills and does not expand the zone. He is a hit-over-power type player but physically he projects to be able to add more power as he grows. He is a good baserunner and can play all three outfield positions. This one fits the most with the players Gross and Stearns have prioritized.

Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report also projected Aiden Robbins to the Mets in this first mock draft in their 1.0 draft.

In their 2.0 version, they projected catcher Ryder Helfrick from Arkansas to the Mets. Ryder has plus bat speed and prioritizes pulling the baseball. He has plus power but a below average hit tool, struggles with spin, and needs to polish up the defensive side of his game.

In their 3.0 version they have left-handed pitcher out of Huntington Beach High School Jared Grindlinger going to the Mets. Grindlinger throws a fastball that has gotten up to 96 miles per hour alongside a slider and a changeup. he has plus arm speed and projects as a power pitcher who attacks the zone.

The Athletic

Keith Law of the Athletic in his mock draft also has the Mets taking a pitcher, this time Tegan Kuhns, a right handed pitcher from the University of Tennessee. Tegan averages 94 miles per hour on his fastball but projects to be able to add velocity, has a very high spin curveball, a slider, a cutter, and a changeup.

Fanside

Fanside also projects the Mets to draft Tegan Kuhns.

Perfect Game

Perfect Game in their mock draft has the Mets taking outfielder Caden Sorrell of Texas A&M. Sorrell has a strong power and speed combination and can lift the ball to all fields, but he needs to clean up his pitch recognition and contact skills. He has mostly played in the corners and has a plus arm.

Conclusion

The breakdown of the projected players:

  • College Hitter – Aiden Robbins, OF (2)
  • College Pitcher – Tegan Kuhns, RHP (2)
  • College Pitcher – Cade Townsend, RHP
  • College Pitcher – Mason Edwards, LHP
  • High School Pitcher, Carson Boleman, LHP
  • College Hitter – Ryder Helfrick, C
  • High School Pitcher – Jared Grindlinger, LHP
  • College Hitter – Caden Sorrell, OF
  • High School Hitter – Will Brick, C

Aiden Robbins is arguably the closest fit here to the historical picks Gross and Stearns have made. He is a hit over power college bat with a quick swing that is capable of playing center field. Caden Sorrell, while a college hitter, does not have the hit tool or defense Robbins has.

The pitchers listed show similar characteristics to many of the pitchers in the Mets current farm system. Some throw from high slots, some prioritize high spin rates, many have similar pitch mixes to the current Mets prospects, and many can attack the zone.

The big outliers are Ryder Helfrick and Will Brick, both catchers with plus power but not great hit tools. They are not completely dissimilar to Korey Lee though, who Gross drafted in 2019.

One other path the Mets could take would be to go under slot with their first pick, taking a college hitter that fits their archetype like Trea Broussard and have more money to spread throughout the rest of the draft going over slot in other spots.

They could see someone like Tyler Bell, who has has had shoulder issues this year, fall to them and go all in on him. Bell is a switch hitter who can play shortstop, second base, and third base, and while he has no clear plus tool, he is good at every part of the game, though there are some hit tool concerns.

They could also draft someone completely different to anyone they have taken early in the draft before.

The Major League Baseball draft takes place July 11 to July 12. A lot will likely change between now and then, there will be more mock drafts, rankings will change, and we will continue to monitor how that affects the Mets here.