Series Preview: Mets Meet Phillies For Second Consecutive Weekend

Just five days ago, the Mets and Phillies matched up on Sunday Night Baseball in what ended up in another series victory for the Metropolitans.

On Thursday, the NL East rivals will play meet again – this time in Philadelphia – as the two teams begin a four-game set. The Mets just wrapped up a four-game series at home against the Braves, sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader but dropping Monday and Wednesday’s games to Atlanta. The latter game saw Tylor Megill keep the Braves hitless through the first four frames. After he left the game upon loading the bases in the fifth, the bullpen imploded, allowing Atlanta to score seven runnings in the inning, all but putting the game out of reach.

However, the doubleheader sweep on Tuesday was incredibly impressive for New York, who currently sit at 18-9 and remain in first place in the division. After the Mets got out to a quick 5-1 lead, the bullpen trio of Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, and Edwin Diaz combined to throw four shutout innings to seal the victory. In the nightcap, Carlos Carrasco continued his bounceback season with eight phenomenal shutout innings as the Mets picked up a 3-0 win behind another home run from Pete Alonso.

For the Phillies, they just dropped a two-game set to the Texas Rangers, losing Wednesday’s game in extra innings. Philly now sits six games behind the Mets, fourth place in the NL East. But despite the Phillies recent struggles, there is great news in them playing the Mets: because Kyle Schwarber has absolutely dominated against them, including three home runs in their series last weekend. For his career, Schwarber has 16 home runs and an unreal 1.154 OPS against the Mets, so expect him to do damage at CBP again this weekend.

Thursday, May 5, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA)

Walker makes his third start of the season on Thursday – and it will be his third against the Phillies this year as well! You read that right – Walker’s two appearances thus far have both been against Philadelphia, and Walker looked dominant in both games. Over those two starts, Walker has pitched a combined seven innings, allowing just two hits, no runs, and two walks. While Walker left the April 11 game after just two innings due to a shoulder injury, he went five strong innings in his most recent game on April 30.

After posting a 6.75 ERA through his first two starts of the season, Aaron Nola has settled down to throw three quality starts over his last three appearances. His latest start saw him pitch six innings against the Mets, allowing seven hits and three runs, although he did tie a season-high with nine strikeouts as well. The last time he faced the Mets at CBP (on April 13), Nola lasted just 3 1/3 innings, allowing three hits, three walk, and three runs.

Friday, May 6, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (4-0, 2.61 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (2-1, 2.93 ERA)

Max Scherzer has been everything the Mets could have asked of him thus far and more. Over his first four starts, Scherzer threw four quality starts, his most dominant one being seven shutout frames with ten strikeouts against the Cardinals. Scherzer’s latest start was his roughest, allowing four runs on three home runs to the Phillies, but still lasted six innings, striking out nine batters. Not that it wasn’t expected, but Scherzer is likely to be a NL Cy Young candidate throughout this entire season.

Gibson has been a pleasant surprise for the Phils’ this season. After throwing a seven inning, two-hit, scoreless gem against Oakland in his first start of the season, Gibson has thrown two more quality starts, both against the Rockies. Aside from that Oakland start, Gibson’s strikeout numbers have been relatively low, but he is coming off a solid start against the Mets, despite walking five batters. Otherwise, Gibson allowed just two hits and one run (none earned) in 4 1/3 innings.

Saturday, May 7, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (3-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

Bassitt has looked every bit of his 2021 All-Star self since joining the Mets rotation this season. Outside of getting hit hard by the Giants offense, Bassitt has thrown four quality starts, including two starts of at least six innings and no runs allowed. His walk and home runs allowed numbers have been low, while he’s struck out at least six batters in each game thus far in the young season. His most recent start saw him strike out eight Braves batters, tying a season high that he set in his Mets debut versus the Nationals.

Eflin has been roughly the definition of average thus far for the Phillies this season, with his 4.50 ERA painting that picture. Although he has thrown just one quality start, he’s also allowed just one home run, and threw six innings of one-run baseball against the Rockies less than two weeks ago. Eflin was most recently hit hard by the Mets, as they tagged him for six runs (five earned) on eight hits, as Eflin didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Eflin has also yet to strike out more than five batters in a game through five starts this season.

Sunday, May 8, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 3.30 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (2-1, 4.63 ERA)

Carrasco had the ultimate bounce back performance in his latest start. Carrasco began the season strong, posting a 1.47 ERA through three starts, including five shutout innings against Arizona and 7 2/3 dominant frames of allowing just two runs against San Francisco. However, he was no match for the Cardinals offense, who exploded for nine hits and eight runs against Carrasco, knocking him out of the game after a mere 3 2/3 innings.

In his first start following this disappointing outing, Carrasco put together perhaps the best start of his Mets career: eight shutout innings, allowing six hits, two walks, and striking out five batters. Carrasco has been the only Met starting pitcher to pitch into the eighth inning thus far in 2022 – and he’s already done it twice in less than a month.

Suarez lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his first start of the start this season – also versus the Mets – but has since mostly fared better. He tossed five innings of two-run ball against the Marlins and six innings of three-run ball against the Rockies. Most recently, Suarez allowed a season-high five runs (three earned) and two home runs in five innings in a loss to the Rangers. He’s not much of a strikeout guy, punching out no more than four batters in any one game this season.

Prediction

The Mets arguably have the better starting pitching matchup in all four games this season, but as we’ve seen recently, the Phillies have played the Mets tough thus far in 2022.  I see the first two games of this series being a pitching duel – Scherzer vs. Gibson will especially be a fantastic battle – with the Mets narrowly emerging victorious in both. Kyle Schwarber adds another home run in a Phillies win on Saturday, but the Mets claim the series win with another stellar outing from Cookie on Sunday afternoon.

Mets win the series, 3-1.