After a rough 1-5 road trip, the Mets (17-20) head home for a quick three game homestead against the last place team in the NL East, the Miami Marlins (10-27). The last time these two teams met was in Miami to open the month of April. Despite some shaky bullpen work, the Mets won all three games.
As expected, the Marlins have been the worst team in the MLB as they hold a 2.5 game lead on the Kansas City Royals for the worst record in the MLB. Things have been especially rough lately with losses in 10 of their last 12 games. The offense has been the main weak point for them ranking dead last in team OPS (.595), Home Runs (24), and Runs per Game (2.8). Aside from 1B Neil Walker (.829 OPS), no Marlins starting player has an OPS above the current MLB average OPS rate of .736.
The Marlins possess one of the young pitching rotations in the game with all five of their primary starters at or under the age of 27. The group’s performance has had it’s fair share of ups and downs but is generally roughly average as a group ranking 17th overall in ERA (4.07), 14th in Batting Average Against (.244), 18th in K/9 (8.4) and 11th in runs allowed per game (2.7).
The bullpen has been a different story though as the group has lost more games (10) then any other team in MLB. The bullpen ranks 27th in ERA (5.72), 22nd in AVG Against (.247), 25th in BB/9 (4.6), and 25th in runs allowed per game (2.2). Sergio Romo, Tyler Kinley, Adam Conley, and Wei Yin Chen all have ERA marks above 5.00 and the group just lost one of its better arms, Drew Steckenrider, to an elbow injury.
May 10: Zack Wheeler (R) vs Pablo Lopez (R)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (40%) [94-98 mph], Curveball (22%) [80-84 mph], Sinker (21%) [93-96 mph], Change-up (17%) [86-88 mph]
2019 Stats: 2-4 record, 4.03 ERA (2.79 FIP), 1.079 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, Hard Hit% (31.7%), Avg Exit Velocity (87.0 mph)
Lopez is a classic case of a pitcher’s stuff not lining up with the basic stats thus far as evidenced by the wide gap between his ERA and his FIP. Lopez has pitched quite well this season but his lack of efficiency has prevented him from completing a sixth inning of work in all but one of his starts this season. Batters have also been able to time him up much better in their second (.304 AVG/.829 OPS) and third time (.333 AVG/.807 OPS) through the order compared to the first time (.102 AVG/.294 OPS) they see him in a game.
Lopez has only faced the Mets once in his career so there isn’t much Batter vs Pitcher data to sift through. The limited samples we do have includes base hits from Todd Frazier, Michael Conforto, Keon Broxton, and Amed Rosario giving the team a 4-for-15 mark against Lopez with Frazier hit being a solo home run. If the team is going to do any damage against him, it will have to be against his fastball and sinker which both have one of the worst spin rates in the MLB this season.
May 11: Jacob Degrom (R) vs Sandy Alcantara (R)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (30%) [95-100 mph], Sinker (25%) [95-99 mph], Slider (22%) [85-91 mph], Change-up (12%) [88-93 mph], Curve-ball (11%) [81-85 mph]
2019 Stats: 1-3 record, 4.93 ERA (4.72 FIP), 1.617 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, Hard Hit% (30.6%), Avg Exit Velocity (84.9 mph)
Alcantara throws pretty dang hard and has the balanced deep arsenal that you look for in a potential front-line starter. However, he lacks control of those pitches which has gotten him into a lot of trouble with walks and has prevented him from putting guys away, especially with runners on base. So far this season, when pitching from the stretch, Alcantara has allowed a .324 AVG/.852 OPS with a 1:1 K to BB ratio. Things get worse when those runners are in scoring position as hitters have posted a .349 AVG/.884 OPS in those situations. Compare those marks to his .237 AVG/.717 OPS with the bases empty and you can see why he has struggled so far to prevent runs from scoring.
Despite the above, Alcantara has done quite well against the Mets in the past with a 1-1 record, 1.89 ERA against them in three career starts. Current Mets have paltry .156 AVG/.489 OPS in their careers with only Todd Frazier (2-for-7 with a double) and Jeff McNeil (2-for-3) having more than one hit against him in the past.
May 12: Noah Syndergaard (R) vs Caleb Smith (L)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (47%) [92-95 mph], Slider (33%) [83-88 mph], Change-up (20%) [83-85 mph]
2019 Stats: 3-0 record, 2.11 ERA (2.87 FIP), 0.891 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, Hard Hit% (25.8%), Avg Exit Velocity (85.3 mph)
Smith has been one of the best SPs in the MLB this season ranking among the Top 10 qualified SPs in ERA, FIP, K/9, LOB%, and Swinging Strike%. He also with among the top 10% in terms of lowest Hard Contact Rates and Average Exit Velocities when batters do make contact against. These are all similar trends to what we saw from him in 2018 before he suffered a lat strain that knocked him out for the rest of the season. The main difference between the two years has been his improved control and the command of his fastball which has resulted in 4-6% increases in whiff rates for each of his pitches year over year.
Smith has had success against the Mets in the past with a 1-0 record, 3.24 ERA and a 12.4 K/9 rate in three games against them, however, he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games averaging only 5.1 IP per game. As a team, the Mets only have a .216 AVG/.547 OPS with no home runs in 40 plate appearances against him so it will be important to drive that pitch count up and hope to attack the bullpen later in the game. The only player with more than one hit against him is Michael Conforto (3-for-8) although none of them are for extra bases and he has struck out in 50% of those at-bats.
