Series Preview: Mets Kick the Season Off in Miami

It does not get much better than this, as Opening Day for the New York Mets is finally here. The team is set to begin its season against the Miami Marlins, a team they were 13-6 against in 2022. The Mets will be looking to find similar success against a newly-constructed Marlins team, as general manager Kim Ng looks to build a team that can compete for a playoff spot in the coming years.

The Mets were active throughout the offseason, making a lot of changes to their major league roster as well. Manager Buck Showalter will look to lead this team back to the playoffs, although they will likely have to do it without Edwin Díaz, who is expected to miss the entire season with a knee injury. Still, the buzz around this Mets team is certainly there, given who they brought in through free agency.

Thursday, March 30, 2023: RHP Max Scherzer (2022 Statistics: 11-5, 2.29 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2022 Statistics: 14-9, 2.28 ERA) 

Two of the best starters in the National League will take the mound to kick off the 2023 season for each of these respective teams. Judging off the way Scherzer and Alcantara have looked this spring, it is safe to say that very few runs may be scored in this one. Taking advantage of opportunities with runners in scoring position will certainly be a point of emphasis in order to come away with a victory.

Max Scherzer was dominant throughout his first season with the Mets, but two injuries to his oblique forced him to miss quite some time. Now 38-years-old, many wonder if he can continue to start 30+ games in a season while pitching at an All-Star level. Scherzer made 23 starts last season, so he will certainly be look to eclipse that numbers in 2023.

The Mets starter did not make a single appearance against the Marlins in 2022, but he does have great overall numbers against them in his career. Scherzer owns a 15-5 record with a 2.94 ERA in 168 1/3 innings against their division rival. Scherzer will face off against the Marlins for the first time as a member of the Mets Thursday.

Sandy Alcantara has always been a guy with plus stuff, but the 2022 season was the first year where the right-handed really put it all together. The Marlins starter was named as the National League CY Young Award winner after going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in 32 starts. His ability to pitch deep into games was the most impressive aspect of his year, as he led the majors with 228 2/3 innings pitched.

The 27-year-old was incredible at LoanDepot Park last season, owning a 9-4 record with a 1.64 ERA in 121 innings. If Alcantara can continue to be that dominant at home in 2023, opposing hitters are going to have little to no success facing off against him in Miami. The Mets were one of the few teams who were able to touch him up, as the Marlins starter was 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against them last season.

Friday, March 31, 2023: LHP David Peterson (2022 Statistics: 7-5, 3.83 ERA) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (2022 Statistics: 4-7, 3.32 ERA)

The final spot in the rotation was either going to Tylor Megill or David Peterson, given that José Quintana is out till at least July with a rib injury. Peterson was the better of the two in spring training, throwing 12 scoreless innings in a total of four appearances. The left-hander is back in the Mets rotation after making a career-high 28 appearances in 2022, 19 of which were starts.

Peterson pitched with more success on the road versus at Citi Field last season. The 27-year-old was 2-3 with a 3.25 ERA in 52 2/3 innings on the road. In comparison, he was 5-2 with a 4.42 ERA in 53 innings at home. Peterson has the opportunity to cement himself as a piece of the rotation moving forward, so getting off to a strong start against the Marlins on Friday would be great for the former Oregon Duck.

Jesús Luzardo has yet to fulfill expectations in the majors, but his finish to the 2022 season should provide optimism as to what could come in the future. The 25-year-old was 2-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 12 second-half starts. Luzardo was once a top prospect with the Oakland Athletics. Can he rediscover that form and develop into a top starter with the Marlins?

The left-hander struggled in his limited action against the Mets last year, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 9 1/3 innings of work. Walks were the biggest component of his struggles, as he allowed five hitters to reach base on balls. That will be something he needs to improve on in order to reach his full potential as a major league starter.

Saturday, April 1, 2023: RHP Justin Verlander (2022 Statistics: 18-4, 1.75 ERA) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (2022 Statistics: 6-4, 3.01 ERA)

Justin Verlander is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, despite pitching all of last season at the age of 39. The former Houston Astro was the American League CY Young Award winner after going 18-4 with a staggering 1.75 ERA in 28 starts. Verlander was able to return to the mound and throw 175 innings after missing the entire 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Mets starter has had very few opportunities to pitch against the Marlins in his career, but when has, Verlander has dominated. He is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts against Miami. One of those three starts came last season, as the right-hander threw seven scoreless innings in a 9-4 win against the Marlins on Jun. 12.

Edward Cabrera is another young pitcher for the Marlins who has shown flashes of greatness, but has yet to put it all together. The 24-year-old made 14 starts last season, earning a 6-4 record with a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings. Cabrera has yet to prove he can stay healthy over a full 162-game season, which has always been a concern given how hard he throws.

The right-hander has been impressive in spring training, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings of work across four starts. Cabrera won his only start against the Mets last season, going 5 2/3 innings while giving three earned runs on three hits in a 6-3 win on Sep. 9.

Sunday, April 2, 2023: RHP Kodai Senga (2022 KBO Statistics: 11-6, 1.89 ERA) vs. TBD

The Major League debut of Kodai Senga for the Mets is finally upon us. Senga has just nine innings of work under his belt this spring, but he did throw 72 pitches in an intrasquad game on Monday. The expectation is the right-hander could throw as many as 90 pitches in his first regular season start against the Marlins.

Opposing hitters are going to be unfamiliar with Senga’s repertoire, which could give the Mets starter a slight advantage. In the same way though, he [Senga] is still in the process of getting acclaimed to the speed of Major League Baseball, especially with all of the new rules. Regardless, there is a certain level of excitement for Senga’s official debut.

The Marlins have yet to announce a starter for Sunday’s game, although the expectation is that Trevor Rogers will take the mound to finish off the series. Johnny Cueto could have been in contention to start game four of the season, but Craig Mish of the Miami Herald is reporting that the veteran right-hander could make his Marlins debut against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night.

If Rogers does start this game, the Mets will be going up against a pitcher that struggled in 2022. The left-hander was 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings of work. Rogers was not good in his limited action against the Mets, going 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 innings. This is a guy who was an All-Star in 2021, so this could be a season where the 25-year-old gets back on track.

Marlins manager Skip Schumaker could also go to Braxton Garrett in this spot. The 2016 first round draft pick started 17 games last season, going 3-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 88 innings. Garrett’s role, whether that is as a starter or a long man in the bullpen, is a bit of an unknown. If one of the other starters begins to regress, expect to see the left-hander slot right into the rotation.