Series Preview: Mets Face First-Place Diamondbacks

After an encouraging weekend series against the Giants where they won two out of three games, the New York Mets (38-46) are headed to Chase Field for three games with the National League West Division powerhouse Arizona Diamondbacks (50-35). Over the weekend, the Diamondbacks also took care of business, as they won two out of three games against the Angels.

While the Mets have enjoyed the hot summer weather in New York as of late, they will be in for a very hot week, as Arizona is projected to reach high values of over 110 degrees for each day of this series. Going to guess the roof on Chase Field will stay closed all week.

This series will be pivotal for the Mets as they try and figure out their mentality entering the trade deadline. While Mets’ general manager Billy Eppler is trying to give the team time to prove themselves, the harsh reality is that time is running out. With a few weeks to go before the trade deadline, the Mets need to figure it out fast if they want to avoid a fire sale.

Tuesday, July 4, 2023: RHP Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.53 ERA) vs. RHP Zach Davies (1-4, 6.54 ERA)

Kodai Senga will open the series for the Mets, and he has been excellent in his rookie campaign. In fact, he tossed five innings with two earned runs allowed and eight strikeouts in his last start against the Brewers. Although he was having trouble pitching on the road earlier this season, he seems to have moved past those issues. While he is still more effective at home, there is more parity between his home and away splits than there was a few months back.

Zach Davies will pitch for the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Although he has largely struggled this season, Davies was excellent in his last start against the Rays with seven shutout innings and three strikeouts. Davies’ numbers in his most recent start against the Mets in 2022 were more reflective of his usual statistics, as he pitched 4 1/3 innings with four earned runs allowed and two strikeouts.

Wednesday, July 5, 2023: RHP Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.87 ERA) vs. LHP Tommy Henry (5-1, 4.08 ERA)

Max Scherzer will take the hill for the Mets on Wednesday. Scherzer continued his recent exceptional performance in his previous start against the Brewers when he pitched a strong six innings with two earned runs allowed and nine strikeouts. I went into more detail about his improved performance as of late in my player piece, which can be accessed here. Scherzer has appeared 11 times in his career against the team that drafted him in 2006, and he has a career 2.38 ERA against them.

Tommy Henry will pitch on Wednesday for the Diamondbacks. Aside from two poor starts in June, Henry has been very effective this season. In his last start, he continued his upward trend with 5 2/3 innings pitched and one earned run allowed with eight strikeouts.

Thursday, July 6, 2023: RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA)

Carlos Carrasco will close out the series for the Mets on Thursday. His season has been accompanied by mixed results thus far, but he was effective in his last start against the Giants in five innings pitched with six strikeouts and two earned runs. Carrasco was outstanding in his 2022 start against the Diamondbacks, as he tossed five shutout innings with eight strikeouts.

Ryne Nelson will pitch on Thursday for the Diamondbacks. He has been fantastic in his last two starts, as he has pitched a combined 14 1/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and only two earned runs allowed. One thing that may prove to be advantageous for the Mets is Nelson’s drastic home and away splits. At home, Nelson has pitched to a horrid 7.09 ERA and 1.831 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings pitched.