The Yankees are coming to Citi Field for the first Subway Series of 2022. This two-game series will be a battle of two first-place teams, which hasn’t often been the case when the Yankees make their way over from the Bronx. With their 66-31 record, the Yankees have the most wins of any team in baseball this season. The Mets are second in the National League with their record of 59-37.

The Mets came out of the All-Star break with a lackluster offense. They managed only one run against the Padres in each of the first two games of their three-game series. The offense finally woke up in game three, thanks to a four-RBI night by Pete Alonso. Alonso got the biggest hit of the night in the sixth inning off Joe Musgrove, crushing a three-run homer. Alonso is also leading the league in RBIs with 82.

The pitching staff was much better than the offense for the Mets coming out of the break. The starting pitching was excellent, as Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt each gave up only two runs in games one and two, going six and seven innings respectively. Carlos Carrasco got the start in game three, where he tossed five scoreless innings. The bullpen was mostly solid against the Padres, but Joely Rodriguez definitely struggled. He gave up two runs in game one and three runs in game three.

Post All-Star break, the Yankees have faced the Astros and the Orioles. They lost both games of their doubleheader against the Astros on Thursday but won their three-game series against the Orioles. Aaron Judge has been an offensive force for the Yankees in his walk year and he’s leading the league in home runs with 37. He is also right behind Alonso with 81 RBIs.

On the pitching side, Nestor Cortes Jr. has been a real workhorse. He is leading the Yankees staff with his 2.48 ERA and was selected for the All-Star game this season, his first ever selection. Gerrit Cole is leading the Yankees in innings pitched with 119 1/3, and he has a 3.09 ERA.

The Yankees’ bullpen suffered a blow last Friday when reliever Michael King fractured his right elbow while pitching the eighth inning against the Orioles. King had a 2.29 ERA in 51 innings of work and his injury definitely leaves a hole in the team’s late-inning plans.

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Tuesday, July 26, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (3-2, 3.24 ERA)

Tuesday’s game will be Walker’s first start since the All-Star break. In his last outing, against the Chicago Cubs, Walker gave up one run in six innings of work, striking out five. Walker has pitched at least six innings in his last eight starts. In six career starts against the Yankees, Walker has 4.06 ERA in 31 innings. He faced the Yankees twice last season, giving up seven runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Montgomery started game one of the Yankees’ double-header against Houston last Thursday. He gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, striking out eight. Montgomery has started three games against the Mets in his career. He has 7.11 ERA in 12 2/3 innings of work in those three starts.

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Wednesday, July 27, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (6-2, 2.28 ERA) vs. RHP Domingo German (0-1, 15.00 ERA)

Scherzer has been great for the Mets since he returned from injury on July 5. He has gone at least six innings in his four starts since his return, and he has not given up more than two runs in any of those starts. He took the loss in his last outing, against the Padres, despite giving up only two runs in six innings. Scherzer has faced the Yankees nine times in his career, and he has a 3.93 ERA in 55 innings against them. He started one game against the Yankees in 2021 and gave up one run in 7 1/3 innings.

German was on the injured list until the All-Star break this season after suffering a shoulder impingement in spring training. He made his first start of the season in game two of the doubleheader against Houston. He was roughed up in that start, giving up five runs in three innings. German is pitching in place of the injured Luis Severino, who was sidelined with a low-grade right lat strain. German has started three games against the Mets in his career. He has a 4.60 ERA in 15 2/3 innings against them.

Prediction

Even though the Mets’ offense has been struggling out of the break, the pitching matchups in this series are favorable, and the Mets’ hitters should be able to feast on a couple of weaker Yankees starters. As long as Walker and Scherzer can hold their own against a formidable Yankees lineup, the Mets might be able to sweep this series. A split should be the baseline.