Realistic Expectations For Tommy Pham In 2023

Tommy Pham is now a member of the New York Mets having signed a one-year, $6 million deal. What are realistic expectations for the veteran outfielder in 2023?

The Mets turned to Pham in order to add some much-needed outfield depth. They missed out on Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall and Trey Mancini, who all signed elsewhere, and Pham will now be deployed as a fourth outfielder. Consider the veteran a safety blanket or an insurance policy should injury strike.

It is smart thinking by the front office. While the outfield is set with Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha and Starling Marte, you can never have enough good players on the roster. After all, Canha led all of baseball in hit by pitches with a staggering 28, so he’s a big injury risk. Marte missed time in 2022 with a core muscle injury, while Nimmo has hardly been durable throughout his career.

As a result, the Mets do have some cover in case the worst happens. It is also worth mentioning that both Darin Ruf and Khalil Lee could be used in the outfield too. But, given that they are paying Pham $6 million for the 2023 season, it is clear the Mets expect a certain level of production from their newest addition.

So, just what should we expect from Pham in 2023?

Setting Expectations For Tommy Pham In 2023

As mentioned above, Pham was effectively signed as a fourth outfielder and he won’t be in line for a full-time role unless disaster strikes and injury wipes out one of Nimmo, Canha or Marte for a significant stretch of time. Instead, Pham gives manager Buck Showalter a number of intriguing flexibility options when it comes to the lineup card.

For starters, Showalter now has the luxury of being able to manage the workloads of two aging veterans in Canha and Marte throughout the season. Canha is 33 and Marte is 34 and both can now have built in off-days with Pham able to come in maybe once or twice a week in the outfield.

In terms of expectations for 2023, Pham was one of the most productive outfielders in baseball not that long ago and he was an on-base machine with power. A lot of power. He finished 11th in National League MVP voting in 2011 following a year in which he hit 23 homers and stole 25 bases. He also hit 21 long balls in 2019, which isn’t that long ago, in a productive stretch with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Granted, Pham isn’t quite the same player now and the Mets aren’t paying him for the player he once was, but rather the player he is now and the obvious skillsets he can still bring to the table. Slowed down somewhat by a pile of minor injuries, Pham struggled in 2022 with both the Cincinnati Reds and the Boston Red Sox. In 144 games and 622 plate appearances, he hit just .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases. The veteran also registered just a 0.6 WAR across a full season.

The one positive from 2022 was that Pham still had his power, as proven by the 17 homers. He ranked in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity and the 89th percentile for HardHit%. To translate, he absolutely tore the cover off the ball but his fatal flaw proved to be an inability to put the ball in the air more. Pham developed a tendency to beat the ball straight into the ground, finishing 27th out of 130 qualified hitters in GB%. He also ranked 21st in GB/FB ratio.

If Pham can figure out a way to stop putting the ball on the ground then he can be a dangerous offensive weapon in a part-time role for the Mets in 2023. His ability to steal bases, make hard contact, put the ball in play and draw walks makes him a valuable asset. And, maybe without the pressure and the physical toll of playing every day will ensure that the Mets get the best possible and most effective version of Pham when he is called upon.

Another intriguing aspect when looking at expectations for Pham in 2023 is his ability to mash against lefties. He slashed .273/.338/.446/.784 with six homers, 21 RBI, four stolen bases and 14 walks in 154 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in 2022. Coupled with Daniel Vogelbach‘s prowess against righties, Pham could platoon at the DH spot and help solve some of the Mets’ woes at that position.

It is also worth noting that 74.9% of Pham’s at-bats in 2022 came against righties, where he was held to a wRC+ of 81. If the Mets can put Pham in a position where he hits mainly against lefties in 2023, then they could get back an impressive level of production from a part-time player. Plus, using Pham as part of a platoon at DH with Vogelbach would allow the likes of Mark Vientos and Brett Baty more time to develop.

With his ability to steal bases, draw walks and make hard contact, Pham is also a very useful and valuable weapon to bring off the bench as a pinch-hitter late in games too. Again, he can be used in a multitude of different ways in 2023 and that alone adds value to any team in baseball.

To sum up; Pham wasn’t signed by the Mets to be a major contributor on an everyday basis. He wasn’t brought in to hit 25-30 homers or to be a key cog in the outfield. He was recruited to provide cover and make crucial contributions when needed. If Pham can reach around 300 plate appearances split between the odd start in the outfield, pinch-hitting and as part of a platoon at DH, then it is fair to suggest that the veteran could reach double-figures in homers, stolen bases and walks. We’re not talking superstar production here or indeed massive expectations, but even modest results would make Pham a worthwhile signing for the Mets in 2023.