Mets Fantasy Baseball 2023: Early Observations

The most prestigious and successful fantasy baseball players compete in the National Fantasy Baseball Championships, and the participants have been actively drafting throughout the winter.

Here is our early rundown of how Mets players are being viewed across those fantasy baseball drafts, including the top 10 Mets being taken. We’ve also included some key stats and insights to help you start preparing for your own drafts.

Pete Alonso (20.6 Overall Average Draft Position): 

Pete Alonso is the No. 3 first baseman off early draft boards, behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Freddie Freeman, and just ahead of reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt. Alonso reached 40 home runs for the second time in his career, and the career-best .271 batting average combined with his annual durability makes Alonso well worth the draft slot. Considering his xBA was .262 last season, Alonso should continue to hit for a respectable average while being one of the safest picks for pure power in 2023.

Edwin Diaz (23.22 ADP): 

My recommended fantasy baseball approach to closers is to get at least one superstar and then land a decent mid-range fireman before chasing others on the waiver wire. Edwin Diaz is the top guy to build around at reliever, as he is the first closer and fourth pitcher overall off draft boards. You will have to spend an early pick to secure his fantasy services, but a team that does so will likely be one of the top contenders in saves throughout the season. His astounding 17.1 K/9 rate was a career-high in 2022, as was his 1.04 xFIP, which suggests another outstanding fantasy season is on the way. With his five-year contract, Diaz can also continue to be clear-headed while maintaining his top-notch closer mentality.

Francisco Lindor (33.7): 

Francisco Lindor remains a top five fantasy pick at shortstop. Being part of the Mets’ lineup boosted him to 100-plus RBIs for the first time in his career, while he pushed his batting average back to .270. This will now be Lindor’s third season in Queens, and he is a quality pick for 25 homers and 15-plus steals again. With some of the rules changes being implemented in 2023, we could see Lindor exceed expectations in steals.

Justin Verlander (47.8): 

Even if Justin Verlander doesn’t quite match his amazing numbers from last year, he will still make an ideal No. 2 fantasy starting pitcher or even function effectively as an ace if he is your first pick at the position. The 2.66 xERA points to another impressive season with a little bit of regression baked in.

Max Scherzer (55.0): 

He is still getting the deserved respect in fantasy circles, as Max Scherzer is being taken in the same range as starting pitchers such as Carlos Rodón and Zack Wheeler. A fully healthy season from Scherzer in 2023 actually could make him a bit of a value pick at his current ADP range. He had a 2.87 xERA last season and his 30.7 K% was still above his career norm.

Starling Marte (78.1):

Starling Marte is still getting the proper respect from experienced fantasy leaguers with his current ADP, after settling in nicely in his first season in New York. In just 118 games, Marte had 16 homers and 18 steals, and we could see him be a 15-30 guy over a full season in 2023. He can also benefit from the new rules in terms of steals. Marte’s sprint speed of 28.0 was not even in the top 30 among MLB outfielders last year, but he stole 47 bases in 2021 with a 28.4 mark. He gets it done on high baseball intelligence and tremendous savvy.

Brandon Nimmo (176.0): 

After the top six Mets players are taken, it may be a while before you see another one picked. Brandon Nimmo played in a career-high 151 games last year, an encouraging and important note for those who will be targeting him this season. His strikeout rate dropped to 17.2 and his hard-hit rate of 39.8% and 10.8 HR/FB rate were in line with the previous season, suggesting that Nimmo has found a fantasy comfort zone for a decent batting average and power.

Jeff McNeil (194.5): 

Jeff McNeil was a great late-round value last season as a middle infielder or fifth-outfielder type. He will complement your biggest standout players well again, as his .280 xBA last season indicates he can be a fantasy asset later in drafts. I will take the 60 or so runs scored and RBIs where McNeil is being taken, as he certainly won’t hurt my team, and that is very important when you start to get into his ADP range.

Kodai Senga (199.3): 

He is a total fantasy wild card and may prove to be one of the best value fantasy picks from the Mets roster if we see him succeed early in the majors. While it may be a bit much to project him for 150-plus innings, Kodai Senga has the stuff to strike out a batter or more per inning and keep his ERA in the 3.70 range. Senga is the type of difference-making pick that you cannot be afraid to take a chance on, especially in his ADP range.

Carlos Carrasco (338.0): 

Carlos Carrasco is a quality sleeper pick for starting pitching depth after a much better season in his second campaign in New York. His 3.45 xFIP points to Carrasco having another possible solid season, even if we can’t chase 15 wins again in fantasy baseball.