Using the latest 2015 FanGraphs projections, David Schoenfield of ESPN.com analyzes the NL East which has the Washington Nationals winning the division with an 88-74 record and a +61 run differential. FG projects the New York Mets and the revamped Miami Marlins to both finish in second place but with only 79 wins, mirroring what the Mets did last season.
Nationals: The Nationals will be the big favorite in a division without an obvious No. 2 team — the only team in the division, in fact, projected to finish above .500. Notice, however, that the projection system at FanGraphs doesn’t see the Nationals as a 95-win team. Yes, projection systems tend to forecast regression for good teams and improvement for bad teams; even so, the 88-win forecast suggests the Nationals shouldn’t be considered locks for the division.
Marlins: A lineup with the most feared hitter in the National League, two young outfielders in Yelich and Ozuna who were worth a combined 8.0 WAR in 2014 and should improve in 2015, a speedy leadoff hitter in Gordon who helps solve the team’s second-base issues and more depth on the bench now. The Marlins are a young team with a few vets sprinkled in. Young teams tend to improve. They have an MVP candidate in Stanton. They have speed at the top of the lineup. They’ll be in full beast mode with Morse bringing added enthusiasm. The division could be weak outside of the Nationals. Jeffrey Loria has a plan, and it just may work.
Mets: The Mets signed Michael Cuddyer in a controversial move that cost them their first-round pick, and we know they’re on the search for a shortstop but may have to settle for in-house candidate Wilmer Flores. The offense was middle-of-the-pack in 2014, but the best bet for improvement won’t necessarily be Cuddyer or at shortstop, but better years from David Wright and a breakout season from catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Factor in 30-plus home runs again from Lucas Duda and 40 from Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson, and the Mets’ offense could be above-average. Killer rotation, solid offense and the best defensive center fielder on the planet in Juan Lagares. There’s a lot to like here.
Schoenfield adds that the Mets could snap their six-year losing streak in 2015. Incidentally, the Braves and Phillies look to be battling it out for last place.
First, what do you think of the projections? Second, how many games will the Mets win in 2015?
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