Throughout spring training the biggest rotation question for the Mets was who would land the fifth spot in the rotation. While it was an open competition, it was expected that Robert Gsellman would snag that spot. Yesterday John Heyman of FanRag Sports confirmed that expectation.
While one rotation question was answered, another was proposed. On Sunday, Sandy Alderson told the media that Steven Matz would miss his next spring training start because of elbow tenderness. Alderson figured it was not serious and had nothing to do with his UCL which was surgically replaced during his 2010 Tommy John Surgery. Even if this isn’t serious, Terry Collins thought it was serious enough that Matz would not make the opening day rotation. The Mets now have to decide who gets the last spot in the rotation: Zack Wheeler or Seth Lugo.
That rotation question came at an interesting time as both Wheeler and Lugo toed the rubber Monday in separate split squad games.
Wheeler pitched against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium with Terry Collins in attendance. He went five innings, giving up no runs, two hits, two walks, while striking out three. Lugo on the other hand pitched against the Washington Nationals at First Data Field. He was clearly outdueled by Wheeler as he gave up eights hits and four runs (three home runs) in 4.1 innings. On the bright side he struck out three batters and walked none.
Decisions like these are never, and should never, be based off one start. Taking a step back, both Wheeler and Lugo have pitched in four spring games (three starts) so far. Wheeler has pitched 12.1 innings and struck out seven. He has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Lugo has pitched 11.1 innings and struck out 10. He has a 5.56 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Before the split squad games on Monday, Lugo was clearly having a better spring. Now Wheeler has a slight edge especially when considering his improving health and pitching. However, there is a larger sample beyond this as Lugo also pitched in the World Baseball Classic.
During the WBC, Lugo pitched to a tune of a 4.20 ERA in three starts, giving up seven runs and 11 hits in 15 innings. It must be taken into account that this was no spring training game nor regular season game. He went up against some of the world’s best as he faced the Venezuelan team once and the United States team twice. The start against Venezuela was superb as he shut the team out in 5.1 innings. His first start against the United States was good as he held them to three earned runs in 5.2 innings. His final start in the title game was less impressive as he gave up four runs, four walks, and five hits over four plus-innings. He did strike out seven though.
Lugo clearly has the edge here. What he did in the WBC should pull him ahead of Wheeler.
Seth Lugo Should be the Potential Fifth Starter
While yesterday was not what Terry Collins wanted to see from a potential fifth starter, he would be wise to run with Lugo. Not only should he do this because of spring training or the WBC, but because of Wheeler’s recovery from Tommy John Surgery.
Collins and Dan Warthen have said that Wheeler would be on a strict innings limit this season. The bullpen is not a smart option for Wheeler because Warthen says he doesn’t heal well between outings. The best option would be to let him pitch in extended spring training instead of putting him in the rotation. It wouldn’t make sense to limit him to five innings or less per start. It also wouldn’t make sense to shut him down during the season or the postseason.
Anyway Lugo should be able to handle his own. After all, he did go 5-2 with 45 strikeouts, a 2.67 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP in 17 games (eight starts) and 64 innings in 2016.
Could that have been a fluke? While that is a possibility, Statcast™ followers may tend to disagree. Mike Petriello of MLB.com analyzed his curveball from last year and it was something special. Lugo averaged 3,318 rpm which led the majors by a lot. The next on the list was Garrett Richards whose curveball had an average of 3,100 rpm. The Major League average is 2,386 rpm.
This new Statcast™ statistic has only been around since 2015 and Lugo already owns 104 of the 200 highest-spin curveballs, including the highest-spin curveball ever tracked. That’s only in 64 innings of one season. His curveball spin is like Aroldis Chapman‘s velocity; in a league of its own. While his curve spin isn’t directly indicative of success, it shows an innate talent that separates himself from just another minor leaguer.
Even if Lugo ends up doing poorly for the Mets in April, the team could always move him to the bullpen and then put Wheeler in the rotation. By that time Wheeler will be less restricted and can contribute fully. Even the worst case scenario isn’t that bad.
The Whole Situation Could Still be Avoided
This whole situation is very similar to the elbow discomfort which Zack Wheeler experienced at the beginning of spring training. His discomfort caused him to miss some time, was downplayed by the organization, was hyped up by the media, and was ultimately not serious.
Regardless of whether or not this is truly serious, there is still one big difference in comparison to Wheeler’s case and that is time. Wheeler experienced his discomfort at the beginning of spring training and worked his way back slowly. Matz doesn’t have that time. The Mets could either rush him (which is not happening) or give him whatever amount of time he needs.
However, he may have an extension as the Mets will have a day off after Opening Day. Collins could choose to skip the fifth starter spot to open up the season.
In the end this whole situation could be avoided and hopefully it is. If not the Mets would be wise to give the fifth starter spot to Seth Lugo. If Matz can’t answer the bell who do you think the Mets should turn to?
