Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect the D-Backs loss on Monday night. This doesn’t take into account potential changes to the schedule based on weather.
As has been true before, once again, the Mets’ playoff fate lies in the hands of a series in Atlanta. However, unlike 2022, things are different this time. Rather than fighting for NL East rights, the Mets and Braves fight for their spot in October baseball. The Mets enter the three-game set coming off a series win against the Philadelphia Phillies, who clinched the NL East title on Monday. The Mets, however, had different plans and played party poopers. The Braves, meanwhile, come off a highly contested series in Miami, where they won 2-1, but each win, and loss, was hard-fought.
The Mets enter Atlanta two games ahead of the Braves for the final Wild Card spot. The D-Backs lost to the Giants 6-3 on Monday to improve the Mets position heading to Atlanta. The Mets are in sole possession of the second Wild Card at half a game over Arizona and hold the tiebreaker.
That said, this three-game series in Atlanta can very well decide the playoff fates of both the Mets and Braves. However, after winning against the Phillies on Sunday, here are a few potential playoff outcomes for the Mets as they prepare for a season-defining battle.
To Clinch a Playoff Berth in Atlanta…
The Mets can punch their ticket to October and claim a playoff berth in Atlanta with a series win. It’s as simple as that: win two games, and they’re in. The season series is also tied at five apiece in case of a tiebreaker, so if the Mets win the series, they hold the tiebreaker over the Braves and will be at least three games up with three games left (but more on that later!).
To Remain in Control of Their Destiny…
If the Mets only manage one win in Atlanta, they aren’t out of it yet and still control their own fate heading to Milwaukee one game up on the Braves. Their fate can still be decided with a series win in Milwaukee. However, they would need a single win in Atlanta for this to happen. Atlanta finishes the season with three games, hosting the Kansas City Royals.
The D-Backs have two more games with the Giants before an off day on Thursday and then a three-game series at home playing the Padres to finish out the regular season.
If All Else Fails…
Things get a bit more complicated if they are swept in Atlanta. The Braves would go up one game on the Mets. However, the Mets could still be in a virtual tie with the D-Backs if Arizona also lost their next two games. In that scenario, the Mets and D-Backs would be 87-72 heading into the final week. The Mets have the tiebreaker. But, if the Mets get swept by the Braves and the D-Backs win one of two against the Giants, they would no longer control their fate.
If Things Get Crazy…
Let’s say the Mets sweep the Braves and the Padres get swept by the Dodgers over the next three days. New York and San Diego would be in a tie for the first Wild Card, with the Mets holding the tiebreaker. As mentioned above, the Mets would clinch a playoff spot. Then, it would come down to how the Mets and Padres (plus the D-Backs) did in the last series of the season to decide what Wild Card seed the Mets would have.
In this scenario, the Mets could grab the first Wild Card seed, meaning home-field for all three potential Wild Card games.
Tiebreakers!
The Mets scored key series wins with the Diamondbacks and Padres—conveniently, the other two teams with Wild Card berths if the season ended today. For an example of how the tiebreaker works, if the Mets and Diamondbacks were tied for the final berth in the Wild Card race (as they finished with identical records), the Mets would win the tiebreaker because they won the season series.
The Padres and D-Backs season series is also locked at 5-5, so a series win for either team on the last weekend of the season would give them a tiebreaker over the losing team.
While a series win would equate to a postseason berth in Atlanta, a series loss would give Atlanta the tiebreaker advantage in this scenario.
