Tuesday started off fantastically, as many Mets fans awoke to news that ace Jacob deGrom had signed a five-year, $137.5 million extension. That means deGrom will be with the Mets through at least 2023, while Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are under team control for three more seasons, through 2021. There is one Mets pitcher, though, that is due to hit free agency after this very season – Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler, 28, had a monster second half last season, finishing with a 12-7 record, 3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP, and 1.124 WHIP. He showed a glimpse of his true potential after the All Star break as after his final 11 starts, he went 9-1 with a 1.68 ERA, striking out 80 batters and walking 15 in 82.2 innings.

Making $5,975,000 this season, Wheeler is in his last year of team control. Since the Mets acquired Wheeler from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran in 2011, he has been perpetually touted as a pitcher with immense upside. If his second half last season is any indication, it seems he’s finally realized that potential.

His health history has long been a dark cloud over his head, considering he missed all of 2015, 2016, and half of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Wheeler could be afraid to hit free agency considering that teams would be weary of giving him a long-term deal due to his history, as well as recent free agency trends in general.

This leaves the Mets with a tough decision. Do they extend him now, wait until some point this season, or let him go to free agency?

If the Mets sign him now, they risk that last season was a fluke, and they have a mid-rotation pitcher signed to too much money. If they wait, they risk him continuing to pitch extremely well, making him far more expensive to extend, and possibly even refuse an extension to test free agency. If they plan on letting him go to free agency, they must have a plan in place to replace him in the rotation, whether it be internally, via trade, or some other free agent.

Wheeler has always been good, but he seems to finally be great. After a great second half of 2018, he had a great 2019 Spring Training, recording a 2.25 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 innings, striking out eight batters and walking two. If he keeps up that high level of performance, the Mets have an unmatched 1-through-4 in their rotation with deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Matz.

The question is: Will that rotation stay intact past 2019?