If you checked the Cy Young race a few weeks ago, you would have thought Hyun-Jin Ryu would be the unanimous winner. He was 12-2 with a 1.45 ERA across 22 starts on August 16th and while he’d missed some time with injuries, he was the clear front-runner.
However, he has been very vulnerable in his last three starts, having allowed 18 runs over 14 2/3 innings (11.05 ERA) including seven runs in each of his last two starts. His ERA went from 1.45 to 2.35, not to mention his record went from 12-2 to 12-5. As he’s thrown only 157 1/3 innings (with 137 strikeouts), his still MLB-leading 2.35 ERA might not be enough to take home the award.
So if not Ryu, then who? Last year’s winner Jacob deGrom is looking to repeat, and has the numbers to do it. He had the opportunity to pull ahead of the pack with a strong start against the Cubs Thursday night, and if it weren’t for two swings by Victor Caratini, he would have. He allowed four earned runs in seven innings of work and earned the loss, leaving him with an 8-8 record, 2.66 ERA, and 2.77 FIP.
Before Thursday, he hadn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since May 17, and in that span of 17 starts allowed three runs only once. He leads the National League with 214 strikeouts, but has a healthy Max Scherzer right on his tail.
Speaking of Max Scherzer, Mad Max is having another outstanding season. He has missed some starts due to IL stints so has only 22 on the season (compared to deGrom’s 27, for example), but still has put together a strong resume. He is 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA and MLB-leading 2.22 FIP, leads the National League with a 12.6 K/9, and leads all of MLB with a 7.41 K/BB ratio. In 142 2/3 innings, he has struck out 200 batters.
While Mets fans would love to see Pete Alonso take home the NL Rookie of the Year Award and Jacob deGrom to take home the Cy Young, Braves starting pitcher Mike Soroka is in position to possibly ruin both campaigns. The 22-year-old is 10-3 with a 2.44 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and 1.090 WHIP. Most impressively, in a year where balls (that may or may not be juiced) are flying over the wall in regularity, he leads MLB with a 0.5 HR/9 rate. He has struck out 113 batters across 147 2/3 innings.
Each of these four pitchers have things going for and against them, and there is no clear front-runner. To make it easy, here is each of their numbers in the relevant categories, as well as their National League ranks in each statistic.
Jacob deGrom: 8-8, 2.66 ERA (4), 2.77 FIP (2), 154 ERA+ (4), 1.024 WHIP (5), 169 IP (4), 214 K (1), 5.4 bWAR (2)
Max Scherzer: 9-5, 2.46 ERA (3), 2.22 FIP (1), 188 ERA+ (1), 1.016 WHIP (2), 142.2 IP (29), 200 K (3), 5.5 bWAR (1)
Hyun-Jin Ryu: 12-5, 2.35 ERA (1), 3.17 FIP (4), 177 ERA+ (3), 1.023 WHIP (4), 157.1 IP (9), 137 K (25), 4.5 bWAR (5)
Mike Soroka: 10-3, 2.44 ERA (2), 3.20 FIP (5), 188 ERA+ (2) 1.090 WHIP (10), 147.2 IP (23), 113 K (41), 5.3 bWAR (3)
Keep an eye on: Clayton Kershaw (13-3, 2.76 ERA), Walker Buehler (11-2, 3.03 ERA), Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 3.63 ERA), Patrick Corbin (10-5, 3.17 ERA), Luis Castillo (13-5, 3.21 ERA), and Sonny Gray (10-6, 2.92 ERA).
