Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

No. 1 Francisco Álvarez, C

B/T: R/R     Age: November 19, 2001 (21)
Ht: 5’10″       Wt: 233 lb.
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 1
Acquired: Signed during the 2018 International Free Agency Period
2022 Stats (AA/AAA): 112 games, 495 PAs, 22 2B, 27 HR, 78 RBIs, 70 BB, 123 K, .260/.374/.511/.885

Probably to no one’s surprise, Francisco Álvarez is the Mets top prospect for the third consecutive season. Signed during the 2018 International Free Agency Period, Álvarez has skyrocketed in the prospect rankings. The rise started when it became clear that he would be an impact bat at a premium position.

Last season, Álvarez began the season at Double-A and slashed .277/.368/.553 for roughly the first three months of the season. The Mets then moved him to Triple-A in early July and there were some early struggles for Álvarez. He hit .186/.314/.339 in August but he rebounded to hit .362/.486/.596 in September.

The Mets called him up for their big series against the Braves in late September when it became abundantly clear that he was their best option to DH vs lefties. He got 14 plate appearances between that series and the last series against the Nationals. He also managed to land on the postseason roster but did not get the start at DH against Blake Snell. Álvarez underwent ankle surgery in the offseason after missing some time with an ankle injury last season.

Here are some of the good things about Álvarez from his write-up blurbs from Keith Law and MLB Pipeline:

“Álvarez knows the zone well and will take his walks — also like many young hitters, he’s still working overall on swing decisions. The combination of loud contact and ever-improving approach could make him an above-average hitter in the end.” – MLB Pipeline

“He has a tremendous swing for generating that hard contact, with great balance throughout, excellent hand acceleration, and good use of his lower half to drive the ball.” – Keith Law

FanGraphs expressed some amount of caution against Álvarez’s bat, saying:

“Álvarez only ran a 75% Z-contact and 66% overall contact rate in the minors, which is near the bottom of the big league catching continuum, and almost identical to Joey Bart and Jorge Alfaro.”

FanGraphs did remind everyone that Álvarez has a way better approach than Alfaro and way more power than Bart so do not be too alarmed by those invocations. The skinny on Álvarez’s offense is that he will hit for a lot of power and his swing decisions will decide whether or not he can be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball or an above average one. I know that can be said about most prospects but it does speak to the expected power output (and the lack of offense at catcher) for Álvarez that his offense can be carried by that almost by itself.

Just to get an idea of Álvarez’s bat, in 2022 MLB catchers hit .222/.295/.367 with a .293 wOBA and 89 wRC+. ZiPS. FanGraph’s projections has a 21 year old Álvarez hitting .220/.318/.411 with 21 homers and a .319 wOBA. Some fans may not be overly impressed by that overall slash but remember, ZiPS is a projection system so it is meant to weigh the good and the bad. It is also accounting for a 21 year old with roughly 200 plate appearances at AAA, where he did not exactly tear it up, to step into the majors tomorrow. Despite that, it still projects Álvarez to be an above average offensive catcher on day one in the major leagues.

Now regarding his defense, the Mets did not let Álvarez catch any starts from Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Bassitt. While Álvarez is a big body catcher and not as athletic as say, J.T. Realmuto, he has taken strides with his defense. Despite that, the general consensus with Álvarez is that his defense will likely be average to below-average.

Keith Law of The Athletic had this to say about his defense: “Scouts were more bearish on his defense when he moved to Triple A and had to catch better stuff, although the consensus is still that he can stay there, even just as a bat-first catcher who could stand to clean up some of his blocking and receiving.”

That seems to be the sentiment based on his other prospect blurbs from FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and well, the Mets actions this off-season. By signing Omar Narváez and giving Tomás Nido an extension, both of whom are rated as good defenders, they have pretty much decided that Álvarez will not be in the Majors until they feel that he is ready to handle the big league pitching staff.

On the one hand, the Syracuse pitching staff should have plenty of MLB caliber arms so that should help Álvarez improve his receiving and framing. On the other hand, Narváez is not going to be easily displaced, judging by his contract. The Mets have some veteran pitchers on their staff and teams have historically given their star pitchers preference to personal catchers. It should not be a surprise to anyone if Scherzer and Justin Verlander strongly prefer working with Narváez and Nido, which in turn could cause Álvarez to be in AAA longer than he needs to be.

If Álvarez’s bat is too good to keep in the minors and he’s ready to handle the MLB staff, I would bet they go with three catchers and essentially have Álvarez replace Darin Ruf as the DH against lefties while catching regularly when he is not a DH.

Álvarez is close to being a regular in the Majors but it won’t be on Opening Day (barring an injury). I think he will force his way up by June at some point though and, hopefully, he will run away with the job.