MMO Trade Profile: Tyler Glasnow, RHP

TYLER GLASNOW

Position: RHP

Bats/Throws: L/R

Age: 30 (08/23/1993)

2023 Traditional Stats: 21 G, 120 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 10-7, 162 K, 37 BB

2023 Advanced Stats: 118 ERA+, 33.4% K%, 7.6% BB%, 3.63 xERA, 2.91 FIP, 2.75 xFIP, 3.2 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR

Rundown

When Tyler Glasnow was on the field in 2023, he delivered strong results. The towering righty racked up a career-high 162 strikeouts, punching out at least 33% of his opponents for the fifth straight season and walking opponents at only a 7.6% clip. Advanced stats show that he got a bit unlucky – he underperformed his 2.91 FIP and 2.75 xFIP. He induced ground balls at the highest rate of his career (50.4%), and his 23.2% fly ball rate is the lowest mark he’s registered since 2019.

While Glasnow’s fastball has taken a step back both in velocity and effectiveness, his slider and curveball have become tougher on his opponents. His slider registered a 38.6% whiff rate, while curveball had an eye-popping 51.6% whiff rate. Opponents also had just a .112 xBA and a .152 xwOBA with a 68.9% strikeout rate against his curve.

However, for the fourth time in the last five seasons, Glasnow had to miss time due to an injury. He was sidelined for the first seven weeks of the season due to an oblique strain. He missed nearly all of the 2022 season after getting Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2021 and has never pitched more than the 120 innings he threw in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Monday that it is widely expected that the Rays will deal Glasnow this offseason. The 30-year-old is slated to make $25 million in 2024 before hitting free agency at season’s end. Jon Morosi of MLB Network said Monday that the chances of Glasnow getting traded will likely increase once the top free-agent pitchers sign.

Package

The Rays likely will command a hefty package in return for Glasnow, though his value isn’t as high as it was a couple of years ago. His ceiling is higher than almost every pitcher available on the trade market right now, but his injury history and contract status may scare some teams away.

The Rays will be without Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs for most (if not all) of 2024. Their farm system is also dominated by position players, making it reasonable to expect that they would like an arm in return for Glasnow. While it’s hard to envision the Mets parting with Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott, or Mike Vasil for a rental, Justin Jarvis, Calvin Ziegler, Kade Morris, and Tyler Stuart could become trade chips. This may also be an instance where the Mets are willing to part with Mark Vientos, who showed some signs of progress by slugging six homers in the month of September. The Mets would probably be more open to parting with Vientos if they find another right-handed power bat in free agency.

Proposed Package:

Mets receive: Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: Calvin Ziegler (Mets’ No. 19 prospect), Kade Morris (No. 30), Mark Vientos

Recommendation

David Stearns has made it clear that addressing the team’s pitching staff is at the top of his offseason priorities. With David Peterson likely out until June, Kodai Senga and José Quintana are currently the only two pitchers with secure spots in the Mets’ 2024 rotation. Glasnow is a high-risk, high-reward arm – he can be an ace-caliber starter when he’s healthy. Considering how thin the Mets’ rotation is, they should strongly consider making an offer for Glasnow.