MMO TRADE PROFILE: Juan Soto

Position: Outfield
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 24 (October 25, 1998)

2023 Traditional Stats: 698 PA, .275/.409/.520/.929, 154 H, 35 HR, 108 RBI, 129 BB, 127 K
2023 Advanced Stats: 155 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 18.5 BB%, .295 BABIP, .408 xwOBA, 5.5 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR

RUNDOWN

Juan Soto is one of the best players in Major League Baseball. The craziest part? He doesn’t even celebrate his 25th birthday until October.

After an uncharacteristic 2022 (still .853 OPS), Soto has re-established himself as one of the best offensive players in the entire league. In 159 games this year, he ranks tied for 11th in batters fWAR, 4th in RBI, 14th in HR, 1st in walks (while having 129 BB to 127 K), 5th in OBP, and 7th in OPS. On the defensive side of the ball, what he lacks in range he makes up for with his above-average arm in the outfield. After an incredible 2023 and a .947 career OPS, there is no question that if Soto were to become available, several teams would be calling the Padres inquiring. The question is: why would the Padres trade the three-time All-star and 2019 MLB Champion?

To begin with, Soto only has one more year of arbitration eligibility, lining him up to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2024 season. Add in a report that stated the Padres are expected to cut their payroll by around 20%, and this puts them in an interesting position with Soto. He will most likely be looking at an arbitration figure of more than $30 million for the upcoming season, and his contract extension will most likely surpass the AAV of the 15-year, $440 million contract extension he rejected from the Nationals in 2022. Due to all of this, some believe that a trade that gets his contract off the books, while potentially adding a couple of top-100 prospects to their farm system, might be too tempting for the Padres to turn down.

If the Padres decide to trade Soto, a fair question to ask is if the Mets would be interested in acquiring him via trade. The short answer is yes. Jeff Passan recently reported, “The Mets are a scary possibility for Juan Soto, and I think the Mets probably are in a better position to offer prospects to go out and get him because I think Mets ownership has shown the aptitude and desire to sign guys like Soto long-term.” Steve Cohen has proven time and time again that he is not only willing to trade for players he believes will significantly help the team short-term, but also sign them to big contract extensions to keep them around as well. It almost feels like the perfect match. Now, what would a package for Juan Soto even look like?

PACKAGE

One thing is for sure – Soto won’t be cheap. Someone with his skillset and accolades does not become available often, and multiple teams would definitely jump on the opportunity to get him.

That being said, the Padres don’t have the most leverage, seeing that their desire to cut payroll has been made public and Soto is going to be in his last year of arbitration. This could potentially work in the Mets’ favor when putting together a package.

So let’s dive into the Mets’ current farm system. They have five top-100 prospects in Jett Williams (AA), Luisangel Acuña (AA), Drew Gilbert (AA), Kevin Parada (AA), and Ronny Mauricio (MLB) according to MLB Pipeline, and have as much prospect depth as they’ve had in years. They have also done a great job developing arms, such as Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell, Dominic Hamel, and Christian Scott, who had good years and have been shooting up organizational prospect rankings. 

There are three prospects that the Mets should do everything in their power to keep. Those players are Williams, Acuña, and Gilbert. Williams had an unbelievable year, making him potentially the best player in the Mets system in future rankings, while Acuna and Gilbert have shown exactly why they are consensus top-100 prospects. The Padres will almost certainly start trade talks with these three, and although no prospect should ever be untouchable, the Mets may ultimately decide that their potential is too good to trade.

However, since the Mets chose to be sellers at the deadline, their farm system still has some great prospects that any team would love to have. The two headliners of this next tier are Parada and Ryan Clifford. Parada, the Mets first-round pick in 2022, finished the season in Double-A. Although it was not his best year statistically, he had a good stretch for the Cyclones before being called up to Binghamton and is still only 22 years old. However, the clear roadblock for him is Francisco Álvarez. There have been some discussions about him potentially changing positions, but the Mets could use this to their advantage and have him be the top prospect (#3 Mets prospect and #89 MLB prospect) in a deal for Soto. While Parada is the most expendable top-five prospect position-wise, the Padres might not bite at him. Their first overall prospect, and fifth overall prospect in MLB, Ethan Salas is 17 years old and is projected to be a catcher. As for Clifford, he ended his year with a .854 OPS and proved that he has tons of power and impressive plate discipline (.374 OBP).

The Mets also already have the Baby Mets with them in the majors, but it is unknown whether they would be willing to part with any of them. Of course, that would be Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, and Álvarez. They are all young and on cheap contracts, and have all shown that they are capable of hitting major league pitching. While each has had their own struggles in the majors, they are still immensely valuable to any organization. It’s hard to believe that the Padres would not ask for at least one of them in any trade involving Soto. Off the bat, it feels as if Álvarez should not be moved at any cost, and I can’t imagine the Mets agreeing to do so. That leaves Baty, Mauricio, and Vientos. Although all three have shown their potential, it may be in their best interest to let the Padres choose which one they deem the most valuable and add him to the trade. When evaluating them, most would likely have to assume that Mauricio would be the winner of that game.

The Padres are most likely looking to add arms to their farm system, and although the Mets may not have top pitching prospects, their depth could be key to finding a trade that entices the Padres. Blade Tidwell, Calvin Ziegler, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, and Mike Vasil all fall into this category and are potential prospects the Padres could be interested in. I think including two from this group in any trade package will be essential to striking a deal. Maybe even their choice of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, or José Butto.

In my opinion, the Mets would have to part ways with Mauricio. Trading him, however, will be a tough pill for Mets fans to swallow. Ever since being called up, he’s shown impressive power, speed, and steady defense. Most importantly, he has shown that he has all the potential to become a good player in the majors. However, in order to get something you have to give, and with a couple of the Mets top prospects able to play middle infield positions and Jeff McNeil under contract until 2026 (club option in 2027), Mauricio becomes potentially expendable and a nice piece to add in a trade for a player like Juan Soto.  

Package:

Mets receive: Juan Soto

Padres receive: Ronny Mauricio, Ryan Clifford, Dominic Hamel, and Calvin Ziegler.

MY THOUGHTS

When a player of Soto’s caliber is an option – it almost feels like a no-brainer. That being said, this would not come free for the Mets. As just discussed, the expected trade package would be a hit to the Mets’ recently revamped farm system, and parting ways with top prospects is never an easy decision, especially after just obtaining them. 

However, questions remain over Starling Marte’s current and future health (will be 35 next season), and we have already seen that his production could be on the decline. As for prospects, we see it every year where top prospects end up never being true contributors to an MLB organization. And in the Mets case, even if most top prospects make it to the big league team (which is already not a certainty), what are the chances any of them become the offensive juggernaut that Soto already is?

The alternative would be to wait until next year when Soto becomes a free agent and just sign him then. This becomes a very risky game however, as any team could trade for Soto, sign him to a contract extension, and thus end the dream of Soto wearing a Mets jersey. I believe that with Cohen at the head and willing to spend and the Mets significantly adding to their farm system, it is worth it to strongly consider being aggressive and getting their guy before anyone else can.

From a lineup perspective, Soto fits exactly with what the Mets lacked this season. Behind Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, the Mets lacked a legitimate combination of power and on-base consistency that Soto would bring. Along with his on-field production, Soto brings a light-hearted personality, but fierce competitiveness that would bode well with the culture that the Mets are looking to instill. Who knows, maybe he will even get Brandon Nimmo to join him in shuffling every time he takes a ball. 

Regardless of the questions, if Soto truly gets put on the trading block, I think the Mets must heavily consider and ultimately make a legitimate offer to obtain the 24-year-old superstar. Soto has stated that he loves New York City and prefers the East Coast, so it’s the perfect time to bring him to the Big Apple and slot him in the heart of the lineup. Just imagine a lineup with Lindor, Alonso, and Soto leading the charge for years to come. That should put a big smile on Mets fan’s faces.