Updated Post – Sept. 27, 19:00

Jeff Passan of ESPN was on the Baseball is Dead Podcast talking about various topics, including the likelihood of the Padres trading star outfielder Juan Soto.

“The Mets are a scary possibility for Juan Soto, and I think the Mets probably are in a better position to offer prospects to go out and get him because I think Mets ownership has shown the aptitude and desire to sign guys like Soto long-term,” Passan said.

Original Post – Sept. 27, 15:03

Changes may be coming to the Padres organization. And it may be a benefit to the Mets.

The Padres entered this season with the same mindset and game plan as the Mets. Spend big to win big. They keep their core intact by re-signing Manny Machado and Yu Darvish, added perennial All-Star Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the roster after he served his suspension for steroids.

However, like the Mets’ season, the plan didn’t work out. As of September 27, the Padres are 78-80 and are on the brink of playoff elimination with the third-highest payroll in the majors. As it currently stands, AJ Preller and the front office are on the hot seat.

Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

 

Padres’ Payroll Predicament 

Regardless of what happens with personnel, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune did confirm one change for the Padres this offseason: the payroll. The Padres have outspent their revenue the past couple of seasons, and to be in compliance with MLB regulations regarding service-to-debt ratios, the organization needs to cut the payroll to approximately $200 million.

This task, however, is very tall. Machado and Bogaerts are both on 11-year deals, and Yu Darvish’s six-year, $108 million contract brings him past age 40. These aren’t team-friendly deals and the organization will most likely retain them.

And according to Acee, this leaves the rest of the roster up in the air, including Juan Soto.

“The first question is whether the Padres can afford to keep him,” Acee wrote. “(His contract) will likely be around a $30 million salary in his final year of arbitration. The second question is whether they can afford to not keep one of the game’s most productive offensive performers. The third question is what they can get in trade for a player who will be a free agent after next season and will likely want upwards of a half-billion dollars on a long-term deal.”

A Marriage Made In Heaven 

If Acee is correct and the Padres are inclined to move Soto, the Mets seem like an obvious trade partner this offseason. It’s common knowledge that Soto loves New York City, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed in a Bleacher Report interview that he prefers to play on the East Coast.

The Mets have also been interested in acquiring Soto in the past. When the Nationals put him on the trade block at the 2022 deadline, the Mets were one of the teams reported to be in the mix for him.

If the Mets were to trade for Soto this time around, the haul would be massive. The Padres’ trade package for Soto last season included four of their then top-five prospects and they would likely ask for a lesser but similar return back.

Should The Mets Trade For Soto?

That leaves the Mets with one major question: Is a trade worth it? The organization recently replenished its farm system, adding nine new names to its top-ten prospect list over the last two years. Five of them are top-100 prospects.

The trade would cost the Mets one top-100 prospect, maybe two. It would go against Cohen’s and Billy Eppler’s vision for the organization, which is to mirror the Dodgers and build from within.

Soto is also a free agent after the 2024 season. The Mets could easily add him via free agency and hold on to their prospects. This outcome seems more likely, as it has been reported that Eppler views the 2024 season as a transitional year to evaluate talent within the organization. However, anything is possible, as David Stearns will be at the helm next season and has no attachment to any of the Mets’ top prospects.

Immeasurable Talent

There’s no question surrounding Soto’s talent. The lefty is having another MVP-caliber season in 2023 and has carried the Padres’ offense all season. He is slashing .276/.410/.524 with 35 homers and has walked a major league-leading 128 times. That’s good for a 159 OPS+ and 5.4 WAR.

The craziest aspect about Soto’s season is that these numbers aren’t astronomical for him. These are numbers we all expect from him. Since his debut in 2018, he has never posted an OPS below .854, an OPS+ under 129, or a walk rate under 16 percent. Soto’s combination of patience, power, and presence at the plate is a true specialty. He’s a modern-day Ted Williams.

Soto is also a machine. He has played in 158 games this season and has never missed significant time with an injury. The least amount of games Soto has played in a season is 116 and it’s because he was called up 44 games into the 2018 season.

Verdict

Soto is truly a once-in-a-lifetime player. Players like him are usually never available, let alone traded. That’s why it’s unfathomable he may be on the move again.

Luckily for the Mets, (sorry Padres’ fans), the Padres’ financial situation has opened a door for them to move in.

Trading for Soto may be costly, but the risk is worth it. Prospects don’t always pan out, and if they do, you hope they become a player like Soto. The odds are also high that Acuña, Gilbert, or Williams won’t reach the same stratosphere as Soto.

For example, look at Robert Hassell III. He was the Padres’ second overall prospect and a centerpiece of the original Soto trade. He’s now slashing .225/.316/.324 with eight homers in Double-A.

Besides, the Mets may never get the opportunity to sign Soto. If a team like the Giants or Yankees trades for Soto this offseason, nothing is stopping them from extending him afterward.

I say do it. Soto is the missing piece in the Mets’ lineup. He is a contact hitter who can also slug 30 homers a season, providing the Mets with a third 100-RBI-caliber bat. Trade for Soto in the offseason, sign him to an extension and figure everything out later. Although, I’m quite sure others at Metsmerized would disagree.